原文作者：深潮 TechFlow
原文来源：深潮 TechFlow
The halving was preceded by a sudden plunge in the market.
Bitcoin once fell to the 60,000 mark, and altcoins suffered even harder, and many people once again lamented that the currency circle was in the world for a year, and short-term frustration and loss began to brew.
Long and spot players are suffering real and nominal losses, and it stands to reason that this is the time for bears to steal the fun.
And the "big short" in the crypto circle, the well-known legendary trader GCR, posted on social media, warming every injured leek with words of encouragement:
"If you've been marginalized, this is a great opportunity to add to the tokens you're sure of, if you've invested in full, then stick to it and stick to your spot positions and don't surrender, and someone once said that liquidation is a forced transfer of wealth from traders who need leverage to wealthy spot buyers. ”
GSR also bluntly said that he had long since "retired" from social media, and the purpose of posting was not to see his brothers eliminated when the future was still so bright.
Obviously, the leeks who were hit by the crash generally got their faith and emotional value from it, and GCR's post has more than 40,000 likes on Twitter and has spread widely.
At the same time, there are also a large number of new leeks who are puzzled by the popularity of this post, and there are more and more posts asking "who is GCR".
The consensus in the currency circle is very interesting, not everyone's chicken soup is delicious, and leeks believe in the chicken soup of legendary people who have a keen judgment of the market and have made a lot of money.
If you're a novice who doesn't know GCR, here's a quick introduction.
The big short who is the enemy of the masses and becomes famous in a fight
GCR is one of the most well-known traders in cryptocurrency. Named after his alias "Gigantic-Cassocked-Rebirth" on the collapsed exchange, he is widely known on crypto Twitter for his proven top trading performance, many successful predictions, and clever writing.
From 2021 to 2022, he regularly appeared on FTX's top traders rankings and beat out many other market participants to become one of the exchange's highest overall profit and loss.
Although his identity remains unknown, he claims to be almost self-made and has amassed his fortune solely through trading.
Looking back at GCR's experience over the past 3 years, you will find that his insight into the market is different from ordinary people.
In the second half of 2021, GCR anticipated a bear market and began trading in the opposite direction, fighting against mainstream sentiment when the public was optimistic, and firmly shorting altcoins.
In July, GCR predicted in a telegram:
"The local bottom will be around 20k... Macro/equities peak in 2022 and most altcoins will be at -95% or -99%".
In the crypto frenzy of 2021, with zoos flying and aircoins rampant, GCR's position is not complicated, it is just the opposite of the "prevailing market narrative".
What made GCR truly famous was a sniper bet on the downfall of LUNA.
On March 14, 22, GCR and Luna founder Do Kwon (who had not yet entered the game) publicly bet $10 million, believing that the price of Luna would be lower than the price at that time within a year, and shorted it with practical actions.
Do Kwon actually went out to gamble, and the bet funds of the two were held in escrow by the account of another big guy, Cobie.
Everyone knows what happened later, UST decoupled, LUNA death spiral, and the air stablecoin finally fell into the abyss; Two months later, GCR revealed that the VAM position had made a profit of $2.3 million.
A bet on the right one may be luck, but successive successes must contain profound logic.
At the end of '22, CGR issued a reminder that as the bear market in 2022 develops, hackers, scams from bad actors and project teams will increase... Therefore, it will firmly short some tokens in a bear market.
Then, in November, the FTX bankruptcy occurred inside and outside the shock circle, bringing the cryptocurrency circle into a deep bear trough, and SBF and others did carry out fraud.
The prediction came true, and the legend of the big short trade was born.
GCR's Top 10 Crypto Investment Advice
After the collapse of FTX, GCR may have stopped posting on @GiganticRebirth accounts permanently, perhaps because it had earned its freedom.
His alternate account @GCRClassic offers less personal trading updates and more of a trading methodology and tips.
Therefore, when today's GCR encourages "don't surrender" in the face of the crypto market crash, everyone believes in it so much and absorbs the emotional value of it.
After all, the trading boss who has experienced strong winds and waves reminds you not to give up, then the bear market may really not come yet.
At the same time, Twitter user @0x_Lens also summarized GCR's ten core crypto investment suggestions and insights over the past few years, which we have compiled and shared with you.
做Holder,还是做Trader?
I continue to hold a large spot BTC + ETH position as I believe we bottomed out in November and remain bullish on the future, with the goal of reaching 10k ETH by 2030.
90% of people, in fact, it would be better to be a Holder.
Note that this advice is only relevant to Degens who speculate on altcoin narrative rotation.
The biggest benefit of memes is that they never deliver
Ironically, the most optimistic path for $DOGE is that Twitter will never really integrate it into anything. This will be the object of Musk's teasing, insinuation, taunting, riddles, jokes, just to say that there has been a master plan for years to let people's imaginations run free. We call it Hoskinson;
It doesn't matter whether the crypto news is true or not, but the length of time it affects is even more important
When news affects prices, market participants often focus on whether it is true or not.
Many times, the authenticity of the title doesn't matter.
The market's reaction to the news and its duration are more instructive.
Morning fast and evening slow
We observe the general trading principles when the meme token rises:
During the altcoin cycle, you should consider risk more when the trend first reverses and start gradually protecting your capital over time.
People fail because they do the exact opposite, slow down when investing early, and get more and more greedy over time.
When the general environment is good, bet on Pond's
For the average person, flying to Macau or Las Vegas to gamble is too expensive.
When we make easy money and the macroeconomic environment is in line with risk, decentralized casinos and/or decentralized Ponzi schemes are always the fastest horses.
The internal logic of frying the new and not the old
New coins: hopeful, lacking holders, the team is still not rich, and of course there is an incentive to speculate.
Think about profitability
Try to think of a Ponzi scheme as a professional boxer fighting for a prize instead of a token, where the winner gets the prize money and the loser gets nothing.
But people tend to make decisions like this: when one investment is doing well, they will cut their winners, and when another is not doing well, they will continue to invest (add to their losers) instead of seeking professional help to deal with the emotional problems they may have due to the loss of money.
Other people's money is disturbing, but profit taking is real
I sent some advice before, and someone made a lot of money because of the suggestion, and then you got a message that someone else made a lot of money.
However, wealth is only considered wealth when it is truly realized.
When the trading volume is larger than the market capitalization, it often means that the price increase has reached its final stage.
The worst token design and the best market performance are not contradictory
Some of the best-performing tokens will be the ones with the worst tokenomics, from the most predatory teams.
Many of the teams that started at the height of the bear market, have been anxiously waiting for more favorable conditions so that they can play their tricks and do some market manipulation.
The lower the unit price, the more aggressive the transaction
No matter how many times people look at it, they still underestimate the gravitational pull of the "low unit deviation effect" on retail investors.
(Note, low unit bias refers to the bias that people tend to think that stocks or currencies with a lower unit price are more valuable because they can buy more "units", even though the actual value may be average)
This is one of the most attractive things in the cryptocurrency world.
If you think about it, why would a person of sound mind run and buy 100 coins with a higher unit price? They could have 1 million other coins with a lower unit price.
Finally, the success of top traders may not be emutable, but their perspectives can guide you to be more cautious in the crypto world.