The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the situation in the Middle East are the biggest black sky in the capital market in recent times, and with the unexpected CPI data in the United States in March, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in June with zero, and this black sky has disappeared temporarily. And just this weekend, the powder keg in the Middle East detonated again. In fact, the recent surge in gold is enough to show that the risk aversion in this market is spreading. Over the weekend, the A-share news is long and short, and the impact of the news on A-shares has become confusing, but there is an important data that will be released tomorrow to have a certain impact on the short-term trend:
1. How much impact will the situation in the Middle East have on the capital market in the near future?
Iran fired a number of missiles and drones at Israel from its homeland, and Israel said it was largely intercepted outside Israeli territory with no casualties. The Iranian side said that the current round of operations is considered to be over. It can be seen from this that Iran's attack is symbolic, just to save some face, and does not want to fight and start a big conflict. At this time, the retaliation is mainly reported that there are no casualties, and the problem is much easier to deal with, if there is a lot of damage and casualties. The Israeli side will certainly not rest on its laurels, and the escalation of the situation is bound to further aggravate.
At least for now, the situation will not expand for the time being, and market concerns will be alleviated, but how the future will change is still full of uncertainties. It still affects the world. Israel is not a fuel-efficient lamp, so it is afraid of retaliation, and it will be endless, and it is estimated that this is not what the United States wants to see, so it depends on how to mediate.
The plunge in U.S. stocks on Friday night was clearly the first reaction to the conflict. What is strange is that gold has fallen, and it stands to reason that gold should rise, of course, this is not surprising, mainly because gold has been rising sharply before. It is normal to fall back in the short term, and many investment banks are also strongly optimistic about gold, and Wall Street has raised its gold price expectations one after another: Goldman Sachs 2700, Bank of America 3000, UBS 4000!
Bitcoin fell more than $6,000 to $61,065 in the early morning of April 14, and finally rebounded to $63,700, down more than 5% in the day. Ethereum fell below $3,000 per coin, the first time since February this year, and fell nearly 15% in a day. Combined with factors such as the sharp drop in U.S. stocks on Friday, the A50, and the sharp drop in Chinese concept stocks, there are several impacts on the trend of A-shares tomorrow:
First, the short-term negative impact on the market is greater than the "national nine" to bring long-term benefits, so tomorrow the probability of the market opening low is greater, whether it can be pulled up, mainly to observe the trend of foreign capital.
Second, resource stocks are expected to continue to rise, coal, oil, gold and other non-ferrous plates rose, once the two barrels of oil rose, the market loss effect will increase, the index will not necessarily fall, I am afraid that tomorrow the whole market is not optimistic, the money-making effect will not be ideal.
2. There is an important signal to pay attention to tomorrow:
On Friday, the social finance data for March and the import and export data for March were released. The data are less than expected, all are down, combined with the CPI and PPI data released on Thursday that were less than expected in March, all confirm that the economic recovery is not optimistic, there is no result that everyone wants, insufficient consumption, sluggish demand, business production willingness is not strong, and loan willingness is not strong.
To stabilize growth and promote consumption, we can only rely on policy stimulus, and monetary policy will be further loosened.
There is a reference indicator for whether interest rates can be cut, which is the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) interest rate data released on the 15th of each month.
It is expected that the downward revision is still relatively high, as a series of recent bad data have made the difference. The recovery was less than expected, and the reason why the manufacturing PMI in March was better than expected was related to the rise in commodity prices, and the manufacturing PMI in the United States in March exceeded expectations, so it can be said that the growth of manufacturing data is global. With the exception of the manufacturing sector, the rest of the data were worse than expected and showed no signs of improvement, plus Fitch downgraded the outlook for the domestic sovereign credit rating. In this context, the possibility of MLF downward adjustment is naturally very high.
If the MLF is lowered tomorrow, there is a possibility that interest rates will be cut next. Of course, from our personal understanding, this data does not fall, the impact on the market is not great, because the domestic monetary policy is loose enough, the more loose the more deflationary, the market is not short of money, the main lack is confidence, the monetary easing, no matter how low the interest rate is, enterprises are not willing to lend, as long as the demand side declines. It will be difficult for the economy to recover. No matter how much money there is, they are reluctant to enter the stock market, mainly because there is no money-making effect and investors are not confident.
3. "Dr. Copper" soared! Approaching a new high in the past two years, the stock prices of copper companies have risen
Recently, industrial metals have set off a round of price increases, especially the price of "Dr. Copper", which has attracted much attention from the market.
Since the beginning of this year, copper prices have risen by more than 10%, zinc and nickel have risen by more than 5%, aluminum prices have risen by nearly 4%, and tin prices have soared by 26%, once again triggering market concerns about inflation. It is worth noting that institutions are almost unanimously bullish on copper prices, and some institutions even shouted that the bull market for copper will last for 3 years, rising to $12,000.
The institutional research report pointed out that there are four main factors for the rise in copper prices in this round, one is that the U.S. economy is stronger than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has returned to the boom and wither line after 16 months; second, driven by exports, China's manufacturing investment has rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.4% in 1~2 months, especially the growth rate of investment in emerging industries that consume more copper has accelerated; third, the shutdown of copper mines in Peru and other places has intensified, and the disturbance of copper supply has increased; fourth, the U.S. CPI has risen again year-on-year in March, driving U.S. inflation expectations (10Y U.S. Treasury yields - TIPS) higher. Fifth, due to the rapid development of AI, the demand for copper has increased significantly, driving up prices.
4. NAURA net profit in the first quarter hit a record high in the same period
NAURA announced on the evening of April 13 that it is expected that the net profit in the first quarter of 2024 will be 1.04 billion yuan ~ 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.77% ~ 102.81% and a month-on-month increase of 2.46% ~ 18.23%.
This performance not only set a record high for the same period since the company's listing in 2010, but also if the officially released data reaches the upper limit of the forecast value, it will even reach the highest level in the history of a single quarter since the company's listing.
The company said that during the reporting period, the company continued to focus on its main business, intensively study customer needs, deepen technology research and development, and continuously improve its core competitiveness. The company's market share of process equipment such as etching, thin film deposition, cleaning and furnace tubes used in the field of integrated circuits has steadily increased, and its revenue has grown steadily year-on-year. With the continuous expansion of the company's revenue scale, the scale effect gradually emerged, and the cost and expense ratio decreased steadily, so that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company maintained a year-on-year increase.
As a leading semiconductor company, NAURA rose 18.03% during the year, with a significantly stronger trend in the semiconductor index, and previously released an annual report forecast, and its performance in 2023 will also rise sharply. Does the substantial growth in NAURA performance mean that spring is coming in the semiconductor industry? For example, Samsung Electronics recently released a performance report, preliminarily verifying that the operating profit in the first quarter of this year increased by 931.25% year-on-year to 6.6 trillion won (about 35.46 billion yuan), exceeding last year's annual operating profit (6.57 trillion won). In fact, the semiconductor industry is highly correlated with the entire economic cycle, and the leader itself has an advantage in the industry, and the development of AI has greatly benefited the industry dragon, while the enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industry are not having a good time.
Tomorrow, we will focus on whether NAURA can stimulate the strength of the semiconductor industry.
5. Tomorrow's market outlook:
Tomorrow is the first trading day after the introduction of the "National Nine Articles", combined with historical experience, the first two "National Nine Articles" after the introduction of the next trading day the index rose, but after a period of time into the shock market. After two days of fermentation over the weekend, can A-shares repeat history on the next trading day (April 15)?
Due to the recent weak market trend, coupled with a lot of negative news over the weekend, the impact of the short-term "national nine" on the market may be weakened, and the long-term positive will be defeated by the short-term negative, including the trend of the technical layer, so the probability of the market opening low tomorrow is greater, and the probability of the index pulling back 3000 points again is greater.
Focus on observing the changes in the grid of the disk, if you continue to protect the disk, tomorrow the market is likely to be poor in the stock market, short-term more to see less action, the main theme of the overall active, can be started.
Focusing on observing the trend of foreign capital, if there is still a large outflow of foreign capital, it may be difficult for the market to pull up. The securities sector has become a-stirring stick that affects the market, and it remains cautious in the short term.
Firm and optimistic in the medium and long term, pay attention to the rhythm in the short term, do not chase after the big rise, and do not panic when it falls.