Drones, missiles, alarms...... Tensions between the two countries escalated overnight with a massive Iranian attack on Israel.
Although this was a long-foreseen attack, the impact was nerve-wracking. What are the grievances between Iran and Israel, how will Israel respond, and where will the situation in the Middle East go?
Chinanews.com interviewed Ma Xiaolin, professor of Zhejiang College of Foreign Chinese Studies and president of the Institute of Circum-Mediterranean Studies, for an in-depth interpretation of this.
On the 14th local time, Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepted a missile launched from Iran. Visual China Diagram
Why did Iran attack?
The source of this large-scale attack began on the first day of April.
On April 1, Israel launched an attack on Iran's diplomatic mission in Syria, killing more than a dozen people, including seven Iranian military personnel, including Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commanders Zahedi and Rahimi.
According to media reports, Zahedi is the highest-ranking Iranian military commander killed since the assassination of Iran's senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general Soleimani by the United States in 2020.
After the attack, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei vowed "revenge." Khamenei issued a statement saying that the attackers would be "punished" and "made them regret this crime and other crimes committed."
"From Iran's point of view, because Israel crossed the border to attack the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran, as a regional power, must retaliate, which is not only a political gesture, but also a behavior that a sovereign country should have in order to protect its own rights and interests. Ma Xiaolin said.
Ma Xiaolin pointed out that the relationship between Israel and Iran is very complicated, and the two sides have been hostile for a long time. The Iranian embassy and consulates have been attacked, and they "have to give an account both internally and externally, and must take retaliatory measures and issue a longer-term warning in accordance with the UN Charter."
How will Israel respond?
"In fact, Iran does not want to fight and has reserved a lot of room for détente, in fact, leaving a 'step' for Israel, but Israel obviously does not accept Iran's 'step'. Ma Xiaolin analyzed.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement in the early morning of the 14th local time, announcing that missiles and drones had been launched at Israeli targets. The picture shows that the missile launched by Iran in the direction of Israel was intercepted in the early morning of the 14th.
On the 14th local time, the Iranian Permanent Mission to the United Nations issued a letter to the UN Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council, saying that Iran does not seek escalation or conflict in the region, but at the same time issued a warning to Israel for "any further military provocations".
"From Israel's point of view, it has always been a 'tooth for a tooth and an eye for an eye' and will not easily show weakness to other countries. Ma Xiaolin said.
On the same day, IDF spokesman Hagari issued a statement saying that "a large number" of Israeli warplanes were already in the air preparing to counter the Iranian attack. Israeli media quoted a senior official of the country as saying that Israel would respond "like never before" to Iran's attack.
Earlier, according to the British and Arabic-language media, citing an anonymous Western security official, "if Iran retaliates against the consular department of the Iranian embassy in Syria by bombing Israel, the Israeli army will launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities." ”
"Israel has warned that if Iran attacks it, it will attack targets in depth, especially nuclear facilities, and if it does attack nuclear facilities, the consequences of nuclear contamination in Iran will be severe." ”
Will the United States get involved?
It is worth noting that the Iranian side has repeatedly warned that this is a conflict between Iran and Israel, reminding the United States not to get involved.
"The United States is a staunch ally of Israel and has always publicly pledged its full responsibility and obligations for Israel's security. Ma Xiaolin explained.
In the aftermath of the attack, the White House issued a statement saying that U.S. President Joe Biden's national security team maintains ongoing communication with Israeli officials and allies and regularly updates Biden on the situation.
Data map: U.S. President Joe Biden.
According to CNN, a senior U.S. administration official told the outlet that Biden made it clear during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would not engage in any offensive actions against Iran.
"The U.S. also doesn't want to be dragged into this war by Israel, so the U.S. stresses to Israel not to see this as an escalation, and on the other hand, it is also concerned about Iran's attack on Israel. ”
According to the latest news, CNN quoted two U.S. officials as saying that the U.S. military intercepted at least 70 drones and three ballistic missiles during Iran's attack on Israel. One of the officials said the ballistic missiles were intercepted by warships in the eastern Mediterranean.
Ma Xiaolin believes that "intercepting Iranian missiles is not directly involved in the conflict, and the main goal of the United States is to protect Israel, after all, it does not want a full-scale escalation of the war in the Middle East." ”
Will the situation in the Middle East escalate?
"Iran's attack on Israel can be considered over. The Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN wrote on social media platforms.
The grievances between Iran and Israel, as well as the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, are still full of gunpowder.
Ma Xiaolin said that it is difficult to say what the situation in the Middle East will look like. "At present, Iran has only begun to retaliate against Israel in a big way after about a week, most likely selecting some secondary targets for airstrikes, and giving the United States, Israel and their allies ample time to prepare. ”
He believes that Iran's attack on Israel is "warning, political, and punitive" and will not really hurt Israel, "at most it will hurt Israel a little face."
The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting at 4 p.m. EST on the 14th on the latest developments in the Middle East.
The President of the 78th session of the UN General Assembly, Dennis Francis, issued a statement on the same day, expressing grave concern over the latest developments in the situation in the Middle East. "I strongly appeal to all parties concerned to exercise maximum restraint to prevent further escalation of tensions in the region," he said. This is a time when wise and prudent judgment is required. ”