After the close of trading on Friday, the 2024 version of the "National Nine Articles" was officially announced, which can be called substantial and significant good news. However, the market seems to be immune to the good news, not only did Hong Kong stocks not rise, the A50 index fell 0.46%, the US and China stocks fell sharply by 4.53%, and at the same time, the FTSE China 50 triple short index soared 9.89%, and the market clearly interpreted this positive as negative. In this case, it is unlikely that there will be a situation similar to "8-28" opening high and low at the opening on Monday, and it is unknown whether it can even open flat. However, I firmly believe that history will not simply repeat itself, and the A-share market on Monday urgently needs a strong large-scale rally to reverse the current one-sided decline. Three reasons to deserve attention:
1. The cost of quantitative trading is rising! For quantitative trading, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that the stock exchange has the right to raise the relevant fee standards for the programmatic trading behavior of the number and frequency of declaration and cancellation of orders that reach a certain threshold. It is important to know that the securities market is open to operation, and it is not appropriate to exclude all kinds of investors at will, but some problems existing in quantitative trading can be managed and restricted through differentiated measures. Just like in the game environment, when a character's strength is out of balance, the game company will choose to adjust the game mechanics through an updated version iteration, rather than directly weakening the character's stats, such as the optimization of Barbara's ring skills in Genshin Impact. If the adjustment of the quantitative trading system fails to achieve the expected results, the regulatory authorities may refer to the 2015 restrictions on stock index futures and continue to introduce new measures to restrict quantitative trading activities.
2. Although the refinancing business itself is not subject to special restrictions, the regulator has begun to severely punish the violations of securities companies, such as CITIC Securities and Haitong Securities, which were recently investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The main reason for this investigation involves the operation of the two companies in the 5.3 billion yuan private placement project of China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide. As early as September 22, 2023, there has been a big V analysis on the Internet pointing out that there is an abnormal balance of securities lending in the transaction of China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide, and the actual controller of China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide has also been investigated, speculating that it may be involved in the act of providing securities borrowing and lending sources.
According to the current regulations, natural person shareholders are not allowed to directly lend shares to carry out securities lending business. There is speculation that CITIC Capital, a subsidiary of CITIC Securities, may have made a detour to realize stock lending through a certain way, and used securities lending funds to participate in its own underwritten CNNC titanium dioxide private placement project, so as to carry out risk-free short-selling arbitrage operations (selling securities at a high price and buying at a low price). I speculate that this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to exposing the problems of securities lending in the market, and only through the in-depth investigation and punishment of similar violations and the elimination of these undesirable factors can the majority of retail investors have more confidence in China's stock market.
3. A large number of stocks will be misinterpreted by ST! According to the latest provisions of the "National Nine Articles", if a listed company fails to meet the prescribed dividend standard, it may face ST treatment. Specifically, companies listed on the STAR Market and ChiNext are required to meet the three assessment criteria of total dividends, R&D investment and total R&D, while companies listed on the Main Board are required to meet the two requirements of dividend ratio and dividend amount. Although this policy has caused many investors to worry about the possibility of a large number of individual stocks being ST, in fact, the policy sets a transition period to give substandard listed companies enough time and space to improve their operating conditions and dividend policies. According to estimates by market professionals, more than 80 companies have temporarily failed to meet the new requirements, and once ST, it may trigger a massive sell-off by retail investors, causing the company's market value to shrink and face the risk of delisting. However, in the long run, with the implementation of the policy, the overall quality of non-ST listed companies is expected to improve, which will provide a safer investment environment for the majority of retail investors and help enhance investors' confidence in the bullish market to go long.
In addition, international geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing in the near future, affected by this, international gold prices on Friday night after the surge showed a downward trend, if there are no new conflict events in the short term, the market risk aversion may be effectively released. This change is theoretically a positive factor for global equity markets, helping to improve market sentiment and investment confidence.
If the blockbuster good news announced after Friday's hours is misread in the market and spreads through the brewing and spreading of public opinion over the weekend, then it is unlikely that there will be a higher opening tomorrow, so there is no need to discuss too much about the possibility of opening high and moving low to form a big black candlestick (big tombstone line). However, considering that the international situation tends to ease and the domestic policy support for the stock market has increased significantly, perhaps tomorrow will witness the "Great Miracle Day", and the index will usher in a large-scale change signal! Will you support the market rise and have expectations for A-shares?
----------
Tips:
1. The above content is only a personal investment diary and does not have a guidance function.
2. It is not easy to create, if you feel that you like it, you are welcome to like, comment + follow, which is the greatest support for the author.