"As soon as you open the jewelry box, it is golden, and it is regarded as a dowry for yourself. After three years of saving gold, Yang Li, a post-00s girl from Guangzhou and Shenzhen, has hoarded dozens of gold jewelry: enamel-inlaid gold bracelets, new Bubble Mart co-branded pendants...... However, what satisfied her the most was the little golden beans that were about to fill the big glass bottles with fists.
Entering April, the international gold price has repeatedly hit new highs, but the sentiment of "buying up, not buying down" in the market is still boosting the "gold buying fever". In this craze, "gold savers" like Yang Li began to pursue exquisite provinces, believing in "a small gold bean every month, unconsciously saving a big gold chain" and "3000+ monthly salary, picking the door to save gold"......
In this regard, a number of experts in the field of gold told the Chao News reporter that "ordinary citizens do not need to blindly follow the trend and accumulate gold because of the rise in gold prices." At the same time, due to the large increase in gold prices, the Shanghai Gold Exchange has also decided to increase the margin ratio and the limit of the rise and fall of related products on April 15 to reduce the overall risk of the market.
Young people pick up gold jewellery at the wholesale gold market. Photo by Chao News reporter Wu Yue
The self-cultivation of "gold savers".
Open the social platform, type in the keyword "buy gold", you can find that there are many "gold savers" sharing "loot", gold glittering enamel color gold bracelets, as well as national style bracelets, pendants, and so on. These posts have received a lot of attention, and some have been liked by tens of thousands of people.
The popularity of gold is constantly heating up, and the "gold savers" claim to be "blood awakening". The big gold chain that used to dislike the yellow skin is now more and more pleasing to the eye. What's more, gold has soared like never before, and "I feel like I'm making money when I sleep." Most "gold savers" said that they do not expect to sell high and buy low to make the difference in the short term. Instead, buy a little bit every month and save money for the long term.
Yang Li is a member of the "gold savers" group, her family lives in the country's largest gold distribution center near the Shenzhen Shuibei Market, because she is not familiar with other financial channels, every month as soon as the salary is paid, she buys gold, "the salary is more, the more you buy, the less you pay, just buy a small gold bean." ”
Rather than spending money on travel, she would rather "tighten her belt and buy a few more little golden beans". In the past three years, Yang Li has chased from 300 yuan/gram of gold to 570 yuan/gram, and has spent nearly 75,000 yuan in total. One of the largest expenses was the purchase of nearly 30,000 yuan of gold jewellery at a unit price of 512 yuan per gram, and according to the recent recycling market, it has earned more than 1,000 yuan. She likes the feeling of saving money in disguise, "spending money and not spending it".
"Gold Savers" social platform sharing. Screenshot from the web
Liu Keke, a native of Lishui, Zhejiang, is also a senior "gold saver". However, she has more realistic considerations, she once bought a house at a high house price, and now the property market is "cooling", and she hopes to earn back the loss of speculation from the money she saves.
As the price of gold continues to rise, Liu Keke's way of buying gold has also changed - from sharing styles to shopping around. From time to time, her gold-saving exchange group popped up the "wool" notice, and the spike price was superimposed with coupons, and some jewelry was lower than the international gold market price of the day.
In the above-mentioned group, there are at least two or three group friends who post orders every day, and there are many people who regret not saving gold early, worried that the price of gold has risen again after sleeping, "470 yuan did not start, 490 yuan is still under consideration, and 560 yuan finally started." ”
Compared with the lively scene of online rush sales, there are few people in front of the gold counter in the mall. In the past, April and May were the peak season for gold sales, but now some counters are selling at lower prices. At noon on April 11, a Chao News reporter saw in Hangzhou Wulin Yintai that the price of gold jewelry of some leading brands was about 719 yuan/gram, and some could be discounted by 50 yuan/gram.
At noon on April 11, the gold counter of a shopping mall was sparsely crowded. Photo by Chao News intern Lan Xinyu
Despite the promotion, the counter price is 100 yuan/gram more expensive than the retail price in the ordinary market. In the half hour that the Chao News reporter observed, there was only one customer at several gold counters, and he still took a gold bracelet to trade in the old for the new.
Most of the "gold savers" said that they did not go to buy gold offline, mainly because they were persuaded to quit by the brand premium of the gold counter. Under the high gold price, the self-cultivation of "gold savers" is still improving, not that they can't afford it, but that they pursue cost performance, such as Yang Li, who will turn their goals to the gold wholesale market such as Shenzhen Shuibei.
Can ordinary people still invest in gold?
Compared with the current downturn in the stock market and property market, gold market investment seems to have "won hemp". This month, the gold price has repeatedly hit record highs. According to industry insiders, a wave of gold futures operations of a private equity company in Hangzhou has attracted the envy of Shanghai financial peers——
The product has been held for one year and four months, with a cumulative income of 426.44%, of which this year's income is about 100%. The details of the profit and loss of the trading index show that its upward momentum far exceeds that of precious metal futures products such as Shanghai Bank and Shanghai Nickel.
However, doubts about gold speculation are becoming more and more common, "Who is more valuable in 20 years with 5 million gold and a house?", "With a monthly salary of 3,000, do you want to save gold beans together?", "Will it become a big injustice to follow the trend and buy gold beans?" and other topics have repeatedly appeared on the hot search lists of various platforms, causing heated discussions.
Gold jewelry counter in shopping mall. Photo by Chao News reporter Wu Yue
In the face of unprecedentedly high gold prices, is it suitable for ordinary people to save for investment?
According to Lu Chao, chief analyst of gold investment strategy network and professional gold investor, through the continuous rise in gold prices in the past two years, young people who have saved gold have indeed made money. However, when merchants sell gold beans, they are essentially promoting a processed gold product, so they often include a certain premium per gram weight. "For gold investment, it is recommended to buy paper gold, gold futures, etc., without processing fees. ”
Historically, gold yields have also been limited. 11 years ago, the "Chinese aunt" who bought gold jewelry on Wall Street bought the bottom of Wall Street, and the purchase price was about 260 yuan/gram, and according to the recent second-hand gold recovery price, the investment income has about doubled. Before that, they had been trapped in gold for five or six years. "In fact, the return of this wave of bottom-buying is average, with an annualized rate of about 6%. Lu Chao introduced.
Screenshot from the official website of the World Gold Council
"In fact, buying gold is more of an asset allocation to deal with changes in the global situation such as currency depreciation, rather than focusing on yields. Lv Chao said that at present, central banks of all countries attach importance to gold reserves, especially developing countries, and ensure international payment capacity by continuing to hoard gold. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks continued to buy gold aggressively in 2023, with a net purchase of 1,037 tonnes for the year, of which China, Poland and Singapore ranked among the top three in the world.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that the purchase of gold by central banks around the world is not a vane of gold investment, but from the perspective of domestic demand and strategic reserves. At the same time, central bank purchases do not mean that gold prices will rise, for example, in 2022, global central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold, the highest level on record, but the price of gold did not rise significantly.
Industry insiders said that the disadvantage of investing in gold is that "holding income is weak", unlike bonds with interest and stocks can pay dividends. Therefore, for ordinary people, gold is not a particularly suitable investment channel.
Wang Qing reminded that the sharp rise in international gold prices has little to do with ordinary people, and ordinary people have little demand for asset allocation, which is just a niche investment. He suggested not to blindly follow the trend, "the international gold price has no falling limit, the investment tide is pouring into the gold market, and the price price rise and fall span and price fluctuation risk are greater in the past." ”
Where is the end of the soaring gold price?
"Gold prices have risen again", on April 12 and 13, gold prices refreshed their all-time highs for two consecutive days. Industry insiders have said that gold investment is a "metaphysics", and the trend is elusive under the help of high market sentiment.
From the perspective of long-term trends, since 2008, the overall trend of international gold prices has been rising, and in December 2023, it will refresh the previous historical high, breaking the medium and long-term technical pattern. The high price break brings imagination and confidence to the market, and pushes up the market's chasing sentiment.
As one of the earlier gold investors in China, Lv Chao believes that "to judge whether the price of gold will rise or not, we must grasp the core driving force of the rise of gold, rather than feeling that the price of gold will fall if it is high, and then rebound after falling." ”
Gold prices are now at all-time highs. According to experts' analysis, the previous analytical framework with the real yield of U.S. bonds as the core can no longer be applied to and explain the current round of gold price increases. At present, many people in the industry believe that there are three main factors behind the rise in gold prices -
First of all, the global geopolitical landscape is an important factor affecting the trend of gold prices. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the world has been in constant conflict, and the world has entered the "era of hot war". Amid international geopolitical turmoil and intensifying global economic uncertainty, the value of gold has become more and more prominent.
Second, the Fed's interest rate cut in the middle or second half of the year is in the pipeline, and the rise in gold prices during the warm-up period is a normal market environment. Gold is cheaper for international buyers after the US dollar rate cut, and the expansion of buying demand has led to a rise in gold prices, "a signal that has prompted gold to enter an upward channel".
Finally, this is also closely related to the domestic market environment. On the one hand, after the Spring Festival, the people's enthusiasm for buying gold jewellery is high, and domestic gold consumption is at a seasonal high; on the other hand, the real estate is in the adjustment stage, and the stock market is weak, which makes the investment attribute of gold prominent, and exacerbates the influx of hot money from the property market and the stock market into the gold market.
So, where is the end of the soaring gold price?
"It is clear that the current trend in gold prices has deviated from the conventional analytical framework of the past, deviating from the fundamentals of the dollar index, real interest rates, etc. In Wang Qing's view, the trend of gold prices is largely affected by the international environment and market sentiment. Because of this, the speculative nature of gold is getting stronger and stronger, and the visibility of future gold price trends is significantly decreasing, and the uncertainty is rising significantly.
Wang Qing believes that it is too early to judge whether the international gold price has entered a new round of price increase cycle. There are still two very important uncertainties in the future, one is that the Fed will cut interest rates to "fulfill expectations", and the other is that if the domestic real estate industry improves in the second half of the year and domestic gold demand slows down, these may "cool" gold investment and gold prices fall.
(Chao News)