April began to enter the second quarter, but I have to say that the second quarter is really difficult.
In April, pig prices and grain prices continued to stumble in March on the one hand, but at the same time, the stalemate also became more severe, and the overall market fell into a stalemate.
For example, pig prices, this year's market for pig prices inflection point is expected to be very high, although the price of piglets has risen rapidly, but the willingness to buy is still unabated, many places reflect, although piglets have risen six or seven hundred, but it is not difficult to sell.
On the other hand, the second fattening is also actively entering, making this year's pig prices out of an off-season situation.
Although it is said that Qingming's flameout has some blows to the market, it quickly sorted out its mood and started the war again, so the bullish momentum of pig prices is still not weak.
But from the market point of view, more or ups and downs, ephemeral frequent, obviously, no matter what the pig price in the second half of the year, at least the current pig market is still strong supply and weak demand, so the pig price rise is weak, into a stalemate.
Pig prices have not risen, and feed demand has also followed the wait-and-see, which in turn has affected the demand for corn.
Although the overall demand for corn this year is not weak, the question of when the demand will develop.
Although the current progress of corn grain sales has come to an end, the market has gradually begun to focus on dry grain, and the grain source has also shifted, but in fact, the corn market has not improved.
The Northeast is still relying on the increase in reserves to raise a breath of fairy spirit, although some enterprises began to raise prices to lock up grain, but they are all small fights, and it is difficult to export grain from Northeast China, so it is difficult to set off any big storm in the local area.
Shandong, is even more ups and downs, although the next increase in reserves will also be forced, but more willingness is to support the bottom of corn, rather than to boost the rise of corn.
So although corn can't fall, it can't go up either.
As a result, pig prices and grain prices are both at an impasse.
And from the trend point of view, it is difficult to have much opportunity for change in April, and the main event in April is to boil.
April is difficult, but it may be more troublesome in May and June, as the market is increasingly divided on the trend of pig food in May and June.
On the one hand, the market's expectations for pig prices in May and June are still high, but on the other hand, because May and June are still the off-season for consumption, the market's expectations for the pig market are too consistent.
With the operation of the second fattening and pressing the fence in the early stage, in May and June, it will enter a window period for slaughter, and once the demand cannot be connected, it may make the strong supply and weak demand of the pig market more obvious, and it will further suppress the pig price.
Similarly, the fluctuation of pig prices also affects the corn market.
At present, corn is stuck in demand, and corn in April is not much positive, and the market has also shifted its expectations to May and June.
But now there are also big differences.
On the one hand, there is a view that corn will not continue to stalemate, because the production area and sales differentiation of corn is more obvious, and corn will not stop in the production area and will flow sooner or later.
And as long as the corn flows, it is an opportunity for the corn to rise.
However, there are also views that the opportunity of corn is deeply bound to pig prices, because the current demand for deep processing is close to saturation, and even if the room for growth is limited, it is mainly stuck in feed grain.
But if the pig price cannot exert force, or is still deadlocked, it is likely to continue to drag the corn to move.
Therefore, although April is difficult, it may not be easy in May and June.
On the sidelines, this is an over-amplification of market sentiment, that is, too many expectations for the market in May and June, resulting in too high expectations. And once the market falls short of expectations, the mood will instantly fall to the bottom.
But in fact, the market in May and June is not so complicated, there is an expectation of a rise, but the increase is relatively moderate, once there is an emotional over-rise, then beware of the decline after the emotional recession.
Again, even if it weakens, it won't be too large, so there's no need to panic too much.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!