About two weeks have passed since the Iranian embassy in Syria was attacked by Israeli stealth fighters, and the boots that have been speculated for a long time by the outside world about "Iran's retaliation against Israel by military means" seem to have finally begun to land. According to CCTV, Israel's northern region was hit by multiple rounds of rocket attacks, and Lebanese Allah forces admitted that they fired rockets at the Israeli mainland. In the face of a large amount of incoming ammunition, the Israeli army's "Iron Dome" anti-rocket system intercepted some of the rockets, and it was also reported that the Israeli army also launched some US-made "Patriot" air defense missiles. Obviously, this shows that the number of rockets fired by the Lebanese Allah forces is quite large, and it may be mixed with some cruise missiles that cannot be dealt with by the "Iron Dome", so it needs to be intercepted by the "Patriot".
The Israeli army's "Iron Dome" system intercepts incoming rockets
At the same time, Iran's defense minister said that from midnight local time, all air traffic over Tehran, the capital of Iran, will be suspended due to the demand for "military exercises", which is equivalent to drawing a "no-fly zone" over Tehran. However, is this really the impact of the so-called "military exercises"? Recall that four years ago, after the US military assassinated the famous Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps General Soleimani, Tehran immediately hit the US military base in Iraq with a number of ballistic missiles. At that time, many people believed that the White House would launch a large-scale military strike against Iran as a result, and might even detonate a war with Iran. Because of this, the Iranian armed forces were always nervous during that time, and as a result, a vicious incident of "accidentally shooting down a Ukrainian airliner" was staged.
A Ukrainian airliner shot down by mistake by Iranian air defenses
Perhaps aware of the low ability of its air defense forces to identify targets and distinguish between friend and foe, Iran simply drew a no-fly zone over the capital in order to prevent similar things from happening again. Although this kind of "one-size-fits-all" approach is rather clumsy, it can indeed achieve the desired effect of the Iranian side. From this point of view, if it is just an exercise, then it seems that there is no need for Tehran to do this, it is more like preparing for a real war.
The "Arc of Resistance" under Iranian Leadership
So, can we understand that Iran's military retaliation against Israel has begun, but it is not just a war between Iran and Israel, but a "step-by-step" large-scale operation of the entire "arc of resistance" under Iranian leadership. The rocket and missile attacks launched by Lebanese Allah forces may be a targeted depletion of Israel's anti-aircraft and anti-missile munitions, clearing the way for Iran's next actions. In this process, it cannot be ruled out that Yemen's Houthi rebels and Iraqi Shiite militias will also act in tandem to further deplete Israel's anti-missile interceptor stockpiles, and to use saturation strikes to cap the firepower of the Israeli army's anti-rocket and anti-missile systems, thereby forcing them to shut down.
Military parade of the Iranian armed forces
In this interlocking process of action, after the other forces of the "Arc of Resistance" have repeatedly weakened Israel, Iran, as the "leader", may come into the field and carry out a more powerful and decisive blow to Israel. In other words, Tehran is not in a hurry to "take matters into its own hands" at the moment, but is patiently waiting for the Israelis to gradually fall into exhaustion.
The Fourth Middle East War
Before the outbreak of the Fourth Middle East War in 1973, Egypt had used "feints" to "fool" Israel many times, such as launching several national mobilizations, holding military exercises, and frequent inspections of the armed forces by national leaders and openly "making cruel remarks". After Israel was "numbed" by this feint of "wolves" and gradually relaxed its vigilance, Egypt launched a surprise attack together with Syria and broke through Israel's so-called impregnable "Bar-Lev Line" in just 24 hours on the day of "Yom Kippur."
Iran may not be in a hurry to strike now
Now, it cannot be ruled out that Iran is "torturing" Israel in a more advanced and effective way, that is, openly declaring that it will retaliate against Israel in international forums, and carrying out all kinds of military actions in its own country, forcing the Tel Aviv side to maintain tension at all times. At the same time, a multidirectional strike on Israel was launched by other forces of the "Arc of Resistance". It is not difficult to imagine that if this situation of nervous tension and "besiegement" continues for a long time, Israel may not be able to hold on sooner or later, and then it will be the best time for Iran to "strike hard."
It is not known if Israel will still be able to win
Thinking about it this way, we can say that the sixth Middle East war is still on the verge of breaking out, after all, Iran has not yet entered the war itself. However, if we consider the expansion of the forces participating in the war to the entire "arc of resistance," the sixth Middle East war may have already begun, but it has not yet entered the climax of the war. Let's continue to see whether Israel can still emerge victorious, as it did in the previous five Middle East wars.