Blinken asked China to come forward to persuade peace, why did Iran take the initiative to admit it? Biden promised to protect the Philippines, Duterte publicly choked, what is the connection between the South China Sea issue and the situation in the Middle East?
The United States has just issued a warning, and Iran has taken the initiative to "admit intimidation"?
Hello everyone, welcome to Chiming World. Since the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria earlier this month, relations between Iran and Israel have been tense, and Iran has repeatedly threatened to launch missile and drone strikes against Israeli targets. Affected by this, international oil prices once again showed an upward momentum. U.S. intelligence has also issued a clear warning that an Iranian attack could come within days and that Western allies need to be prepared to deal with it. However, just as everyone was holding their breath and waiting for the Iranian missile attack to hit the ground, Iran suddenly said "no fight for the time being".
According to a Reuters report on April 11, a number of Iranian sources revealed that when Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian visited Oman on the 7th, he sent a message to Washington through Oman, saying that Iran would not act hastily, and put forward a series of demands, including a truce in the Gaza Strip. On the 11th, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations also said on social media that if the Security Council can condemn Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy and bring the perpetrators to justice, then Iran may not need to punish the Israeli regime.
Iran has not only sent a signal of détente to the United States and Israel, but has also held direct talks with European officials. Russia's Sputnik news agency reported that on April 11, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian spoke with German Foreign Minister Baerbock to discuss the situation in the Middle East. Iran's foreign minister said that everyone does not want further escalation of the situation in the region. Tehran intends to respond to Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy, but only in an "appropriate" and "limited" manner.
The report, citing people familiar with the matter, said the call between the two foreign ministers lasted a full 90 minutes, and almost all of the time was spent talking about the current tensions. During the call, Baerbock conveyed a message from the United States warning Iran not to underestimate the scale of Israel's retaliation. Abdollahian, for his part, said that Iran would respond in a limited way, but it was unclear what exactly a "limited response" meant.
Iran threatened retaliation, and gold and oil soared
Iran's latest statement is very surprising. Previously, on April 1, the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, was hit by an airstrike, resulting in the death of seven Iranian officers, and the ambassador was not injured, but the embassy building was completely destroyed in the attack. Iran accuses Israel of doing so and vows to retaliate. Iran's foreign ministry said it would reserve the right to respond to the Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy and to take what measures to punish the aggressor. But Israel has refused to acknowledge this, warning that it will retaliate against Iran itself if it dares to attack.
Since the incident, there have been fears that Iran and its proxies will launch missiles and drones into the Israeli mainland, triggering a larger war in the Middle East. On April 10, Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, reported that U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessed that Iran or its proxy groups could strike military and government targets in Israel within a few days at the earliest, possibly using high-precision missiles.
The question now is not whether Iran will attack, but when, a person familiar with the matter said. On the 10th, Iran's official news agency also posted a short message on social networking sites, saying that Tehran's airspace had been temporarily closed due to military exercises. Although this message was quickly deleted and denied by Iranian officials. However, Lufthansa did terminate its flight to Tehran, and coupled with the Bloomberg revelations, people's fears were quickly ignited, and international oil prices and gold prices rose sharply again.
Bloomberg pointed out that after the release of the CPI data in the United States on April 10, the originally high gold price was weak for a while, but then resumed the rally and hit a new high, which is also the longest rise since January last year. The main reason for this wave of gold price rises is the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, and central banks are buying gold.
Blinken asked China to persuade peace, and Iran did not move
The rising prices of oil and gold suggest that there is a high probability that Iran will retaliate against Israel, leading to a large-scale war. But the end result is that Iran has taken the initiative to "admit intimidation" and send a signal of détente to the West through various channels. So, why did Iran do this? Isn't it afraid of smashing the signboard of the "Shiite arc"? Some foreign media have noticed that the reason why Iran has made concessions this time may be related to the phone call between the top diplomatic leaders of China and the United States. The U.S. State Department said on the 11th that in the past 24 hours, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken had spoken with the foreign ministers of Turkey, China and Saudi Arabia, making it clear that the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is not in the interests of either side, asking countries to exert influence and urging Iran not to escalate the situation. U.S. State Department spokesman Miller said Washington is concerned about the risk of escalation of the situation on the ground. Blinken has spoken by phone with Israeli Defense Minister Gallant to reiterate the U.S. side's strong support for Israel's response to the Iranian threat.
In addition to the United States, Russia, Germany and the United Kingdom are also putting pressure on Iran. The Russian Foreign Ministry has issued a travel warning, calling on citizens not to travel to the Middle East, especially Israel, Lebanon and Palestine. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said he had made it clear to Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian that Iran should not drag the Middle East into a wider conflict. The German foreign minister, for his part, expressed the same view in a phone call with Abdollahian.
Generally speaking, the reasons behind Iran's "confession" this time are very complicated, but to sum it up, that is, all countries in the world do not want a new large-scale war in the Middle East, and do not want international oil prices and commodity prices to rise too quickly. Against this backdrop, while Iran has the ability to retaliate against Israel, it also needs to consider the consequences of doing so and whether it can be supported by the international community. After weighing the pros and cons, Iran is also more inclined to hold its ground and exert pressure on Israel by winning international public opinion, rather than directly using force to attack Israel.
At the US-Japan-Philippines summit meeting, he expressed his dissatisfaction
Although Iran's "confession" was somewhat humiliating, the boot of the Middle East war still landed safely. However, on the East Asian side, because of the collusion between the United States, Japan and the Philippines, it has become a little uneven. According to US media reports, on April 11, US President Joe Biden held a summit with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House. Biden said any attack on Philippine ships in the South China Sea would trigger the U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty. "The U.S. defense commitment to Japan and the Philippines is unbreakable," Biden said. Under the treaty, the United States will support and assist the Philippines in the event of an external armed attack, including by providing military assistance and defense.
In addition to security commitments, Biden has launched the PGI Luzon Corridor program as an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative. Marcos Jr. was absent from the Belt and Road summit in Beijing last October. Subsequently, the Philippines announced that it was not accepting Chinese funding for three major transportation projects, and expressed confidence that it could receive funding elsewhere. Now, Biden's aid is coming as expected. This may mean that the Philippines will further deviate from the Duterte-era cooperation with China, and Chinese projects already operating in the Philippines will also be affected to varying degrees.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was very unhappy with this result. Recently, Duterte said in an interview with the Global Times that the South China Sea was originally calm, but after the Americans came, it was full of quarrels. He pointed out that if the Philippines allowed itself to be dependent on another country in the South China Sea, Taiwan and U.S. military bases, it would put itself at risk of war and conflict. When asked when China and the Philippines will be able to return to the negotiating track, Duterte said: "We can only wait, because it is the United States that tells the Philippine government what it should say to China, so [without changing this situation] this is always a dead loop." Duterte also said: "The Philippines and China can try to communicate, not necessarily with me, but also with other people, but I am the only one who dares to show my face now, because I am not afraid." ”
The Philippine presidential office has not yet responded to Duterte's speech. However, before that, Marcos Jr. had denied the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between China and the Philippines during the Duterte era, that is, restricting the delivery of construction materials to the warships beached at Ren'ai Jiao. Marcos Jr. also denied that his government was only following U.S. instructions and said he was not provoking China.
At present, the situation in the Middle East and the South China Sea issue have had a certain linkage effect. If there is a détente in the Middle East next, then the United States will have more energy and resources to help the Philippines stir up trouble in the South China Sea. On the contrary, if the situation in the Middle East goes awry, then the United States will have to ask China and other major powers to come forward to make peace, and the Philippines may be temporarily left out in the cold. In short, the Middle East and the South China Sea are now a seesaw, and if one end is pressed, the other will be cocked. After Iran takes the initiative to "admit instigation", the situation in the South China Sea is likely to escalate again. China needs to be vigilant in this regard.