Recently, in response to a reporter's question, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed this point: The Philippine ship, which is illegally "beached" at China's Ren'ai Jiao, has violated China's sovereignty and also violated the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea." In view of this, the Chinese side demands that the Philippines immediately tow the broken ship away and restore the original state of Ren'ai Jiao as no one and no facilities.
This is what the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in response to a reporter's question, which is very authoritative, and from this point alone, it does make us think that this is an ultimatum given by the Chinese side to the Philippines, but it is really easy to do this without considering the practical factors. However, if we want to take into account the shipbreaking itself and the external environment, then it is very difficult to do this, and the Chinese side may have already taken it into account, so in addition to emphasizing China's position, there are the following additions.
Before the Philippines towed away the "beached" warship, the Chinese side still considered the survival of the Filipino residents on the wrecked ship, so the Chinese side would allow the Philippines to provide daily necessities to the ship on humanitarian grounds. But it is not unconditional, first of all, you need to resupply, provided that you first notify the Chinese side, and only after obtaining the consent of the Chinese side can you carry out the resupply operation. And in order to prevent the Philippines from doing dirty things in the name of supply, the Chinese side will also inspect the supply ships on the spot, and the Chinese side will also monitor the whole process of supply.
In the case of such a statement, it is basically impossible for the Philippines to send building materials and materials to the broken ship, so what will China do if the Philippines still forcibly intrudes into Ren'ai Jiao to resupply as before? In response to this, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also made it very clear that he will never accept it, will resolutely block it in accordance with laws and regulations, and will take concrete actions to safeguard China's sovereignty and the seriousness of the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea."
Why can't the Philippines just let the broken ship be towed away, but instead leave room for the Philippines? We think this question is because the Chinese side has taken into account various circumstances and made various corresponding preparations to deal with the complex situation. There is no option for the Philippines to directly tow away the broken ship, and in our opinion, there should be the following possibilities.
First, from a realistic point of view, the Philippine wreck has been illegally "beached" on Ren'ai Jiao for 25 years, and the Philippines chose to run aground the wrecked ship here at the beginning, which is to be prepared to stay here for a long time. At that time, the landing ship "Sierra Madre", which is the name of this broken ship, was a reef in the way of beaching, that is, the hull and the reef were firmly stuck together, and then the Philippines used cement and other materials to reinforce it accordingly, so now, the reef and the hull have become one. It is almost impossible to use external forces to forcibly tow the broken ship away, and the result of pulling it hard will only lead to the disintegration of the broken ship.
Second: peace and stability in the South China Sea is crucial to China's development, more than a decade ago, if Southeast Asian countries choose to take sides between China and the United States, then I think basically no country will really be willing to stand on China's side, but this phenomenon has changed now, Southeast Asian countries' trust in China, starting from 2024, has surpassed the United States. So we have to be clear that it is really not easy to do this, and it is the result of how many years of hard work it took China to achieve. It can be said that as long as Southeast Asia is not chaotic, China will not be chaotic. Peace and stability in the South China Sea is important to China, as well as to Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, in this context, it is very difficult for the United States to achieve its goal of containing China by borrowing the hands of other countries.
Third, although we are not afraid of conflict with the United States, we must also carefully consider avoiding direct conflict between China and the United States, not only for us, but also for the United States. U.S. President Joe Biden recently publicly promised the Philippines that any attack on Philippine ships, aircraft, and personnel will automatically activate the "U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty." There are more than a dozen Filipino soldiers on the wrecked ship on Ren'ai Jiao, so if you want to directly tow away the wrecked ship, you must first clear out these old men, although it is easy to do it with strong means, but there is a certain risk.
Finally, we would like to say that time is on our side, and control of the South China Sea is also in our hands, so as far as China and the United States are concerned, it is the United States, not us, that is in a hurry. That's why we frequently see the Philippines constantly provoking us in the South China Sea, because the United States can't sit still, and the Philippines can't wait. Time drags on, the wrecked ship that lies on Ren'ai Jiao will definitely disintegrate, and if time drags on, the interests of all countries in Southeast Asia will be firmly tied to China, and it will be even more difficult for the United States to reach into the South China Sea.
Therefore, in the face of the provocation of the Philippines and the containment and suppression of the United States, we must fight, and we must show strength, courage and determination to let them see China's tough attitude and let them know that we will not hesitate to fight. But at the same time, we also want to tell them that if you want to talk, then China's door is also open, but it is not about sovereignty in the South China Sea, but about peace in the South China Sea, and about the development of the two countries. China's indisputable sovereignty over the Spratly Islands, including Ren'ai Jiao, and its adjacent waters is our bottom line.
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