It can be regarded as a complete set of the central bank's general direction this year:
At the same time, we intend to tighten the manufacturing loans with "less product demand" to reduce production capacity and pull up prices this year.
In the past few days, the market has been attracted by the news of the central bank's launch of 500 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation re-lending.
As the first card played by the central bank in the monetary policy implementation report in the first quarter of this year, there is nothing to say, it is actually a directional release. Where the national strategy is, the central bank will guide the funds to replace the financial part.
The above-mentioned 500 billion yuan is only a measure that should be repaid and continued when the targeted water release (re-lending for science and technology innovation and re-lending for equipment renovation) expires in the previous two years.
On the contrary, many people ignore the other two "new cards" played by the central bank:
One is to pay attention to the changes in long-term yields, and the other is to pay more attention to projects with "market demand" in manufacturing loans.
Those who often watch financial news should have this feeling, fewer words are often bigger.
Similarly, the two short sentences in the central bank's report have very few words, and they have not been mentioned before, which is very new, and there are two new information and new trends hidden behind it:
First, the central bank officially began to hammer the people (institutions) who shorted long-term Treasury bonds through the report;
Second, there will be no interest rate cuts in the short term.
Why so sure.
This is because the yield on long-term Treasury bonds is the one that reflects changes in long-term yields.
The author mentioned in the article before that this year, the top level will crack down on financial idling. However, a group of people frantically traded 30-year treasury bonds and sang against the top management, telling everyone that the economy was in recession, and funds were hedging risks, slapping the leaders in the face.
Therefore, in early March, the regulatory authorities began to strictly investigate the bond investment transactions of small and medium-sized banks in the past three years to see if they were "not doing their business properly".
Perhaps due to the unilateral strict investigation, the yield on long-term government bonds did not rise significantly, and was even dried to around 2.2% at one point.
Long-term interest rates have fallen too fast and too sharply, and the speculative atmosphere in the treasury bond market is too strong, and the central bank can no longer bear it.
This time, this is specifically mentioned in the official report, and it is somewhat warned: if you dare to continue to speculate on government bonds and lower yields, you are really welcome - please refer to the 2016 government bond market.
Therefore, friends who have related transactions should really pay attention.
So what does it have to do with whether or not interest rates will be cut?
Matter.
First of all, since the central bank has decided that the yield on long-term Treasury bonds is too low to be bearably low, there is no reason to continue to cut interest rates according to the market's wishes, and then let the market feel that interest rates will continue to run down.
Second, there is a phrase in front of the phrase "pay attention to changes in long-term yields" called "in the process of economic recovery".
This shows that the central bank is optimistic about the next economy, believes that it will pick up, and believes that long-term interest rates will rise slowly, which is somewhat related to the good performance of our exports, industrial output value, PMI and other economic data in the first three quarters of this year.
Since the economy will pick up, there is naturally no need to cut interest rates.
In short, the central bank's new formulation of "paying attention to changes in long-term yields" is essentially a message:
Don't think, and don't bet that interest rates will continue to fall!
Of course, for us, we must be clear in our hearts:
First, whether interest rates will continue to fall is up to the economy, and if the economy is under pressure, interest rates will fall.
At present, real estate, corporate investment, and household consumption are all somewhat weak, and interest rates will still fall. It's just that the central bank said that there was no downward movement in a short period of time.
Second, the central bank cannot determine the direction of interest rates, but it has considerable influence and control over the short-term direction of government bonds, and it must not be taken lightly.
Next, the central bank specifically mentioned that to guide the manufacturing industry to pay more attention to "market demand" projects.
This proposal is somewhat of a tightening of manufacturing loans and the reduction of production capacity, similar to the three red lines of real estate in 2020, but it has not yet been explicitly required, and the impact is lighter than the latter.
You must know that since 2019, the top management has continuously guided financial resources to tilt towards the manufacturing industry, and in just three years (by the end of 2022), manufacturing loans have expanded from 10 trillion to 20 trillion, a net expansion of 1 times.
As a result, we have also seen that the prices of manufacturing commodities represented by the "new three" have continued to fall, new energy vehicles have even started a price war, PPI has continued to run down, and foreign trade relations are also very tense.
A few days ago, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen came to our site, and the first topic to discuss was overcapacity.
This time, the central bank proposed that financial resources should be tilted towards the manufacturing industry with "market demand", which is considered to have finalized the direction of the manufacturing industry to begin to expand from quantity to quality - the strict control of production capacity in the manufacturing industry is completely opened.
This brings two noticeable changes:
First, in the next two years, there will be a big reshuffle in the manufacturing industry with "little market demand" - bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions and even restructuring, let's wait and see.
Second, tightening loans to the manufacturing industry in disguise and slowing down the expansion of manufacturing capacity will support the price level this year.
Earlier, when I talked about this year's inflation, I specifically said that there are two decisive forces in this year's inflation level, one is the economic recovery, whether the people's income can keep up with and increase consumption, and the other is whether the economic growth structure will be adjusted, whether to continue to engage in large-scale production or multi-directional consumption subsidies.
The former is the demand side that pulls up inflation and determines the buying power, and the latter is the supply side that pulls up inflation and determines the number of goods.
Now it seems that the central bank has repeatedly mentioned that the key to "promoting price recovery" is to reduce the inflow of capital into the manufacturing industry and reduce the supply of goods.
If there are fewer goods, the price will naturally have the momentum to rise!