100 times more important than diligence is the ability to think systematically.

Source: Chen Ciling

Today I want to talk to you about systems thinking.

I'll explain it to you in two parts:

First, what is systems thinking?

Second, how to think systematically.

Here we go.

01. What is systems thinking?

To understand a complex concept, you can first understand its opposite.

What are the aspects of systems thinking?

It's linear thinking.

So, what is linear thinking?

Let me give you a few examples:

1. Mathematical Calculations:

• Question: If I have 5 apples and you give me 3 apples, how many apples do I have now?
• Linear thinking: 5 + 3 = 8. It's a simple addition problem with direct causality and predictable outcomes.

Line Efficiency Improvement:

• Question: How can I increase the output of my factory assembly line?
• Linear thinking: The output of a production line can be directly increased by increasing the number of workers, reducing the processing time of individual tasks, or introducing more automated equipment.

Budget Planning:

• Question: How do you balance your company's annual budget?
• Linear thinking: Increase revenue by reducing non-essential expenses, raising prices, or increasing sales to achieve a balanced budget.

You may have noticed that this way of thinking is familiar to you, because most of the way we are educated and the way we think in our work is linear.

Linear thinking is based on cause and effect and direct logical reasoning. This way of thinking tends to reduce complex problems to a series of ordered, sequential steps, each with clear inputs and outputs, and assuming that these steps are directly connected to each other.

But what if it's one of the following questions?

How can polluted river ecosystems be restored?

How do you predict the future direction of the stock market?

How to design a sustainable city?

It's hard to solve these problems with the linear way of thinking above.

This is where systems thinking comes in.

Systems thinking is a methodology for understanding and solving problems, which emphasizes holistic, interrelated, and dynamic, and believes that all parts of a system are interconnected and influence each other.

Systems thinking goes beyond the traditional linear mode of thinking and does not focus solely on individual elements or simple causal relationships, but attempts to understand the structure and behavior patterns of the system as a whole, and how these patterns evolve over time.

Too complicated, right?

Let's take the above questions as an example:

1. Ecosystem Management:

• Question: How can polluted river ecosystems be restored?
• Systems thinking: Solving this problem requires consideration of multiple factors, such as water quality, biodiversity, pollution sources, and climatic conditions, which interact and cannot be dealt with simply by a single solution.

Changes in the economic market:

• Question: How do you predict the future direction of the stock market?
• Systems thinking: The stock market is affected by a variety of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, market sentiment, etc., and the interaction between these factors is non-linear, requiring comprehensive analysis and dynamic forecasting.

Urban planning:

• Question: How to design a sustainable city?
• Systems Thinking: Sustainable urban design needs to consider multiple aspects such as transportation, housing, green spaces, economic development, and social welfare, which are interdependent and require integrated planning and coordination.

I believe that with these examples, you should have a basic understanding of systems thinking.

So let's move on?

02. How to think systematically

Four steps: find the problem→ find the cause→ find the result→ find the loop.

A. Find the problem

Defining a problem is 100 times more important than solving a problem.

If the problem is misdefined, all the energy behind it will be wasted.

Problems that need to be solved through system thinking are often long-term and periodic, and they cannot be solved immediately through a certain trick or formula.

B. Find the reason

"Finding the cause" is a critical step in the systems thinking process. It requires us to not only identify the appearance of the problem when faced with a problem, but also dig deep into the various potential causes behind the problem.

This process can be carried out through the following sub-steps:

1. List the reasons:

• First, list as comprehensively as possible all the causes that may be contributing to the observed problem. These causes may include various factors that are direct, indirect, obvious, and hidden.

Dig deeper:

• Use tools and methods to help dig deeper into the root cause of the problem. For example, the 5Why approach goes back to the root of a problem by asking five "whys" in a row, while the iceberg model analyzes phenomena, trends, structures, and mental models to understand the underlying causes behind a problem.

Hierarchical clustering:

• The various reasons listed are classified, and similar causes are grouped together to form a different level of cause structure. Doing so helps us understand the complexity of the problem more clearly and lays the foundation for subsequent analysis and solution-making.

Structured Presentation:

• The categorized causes are presented in a structured way, usually in the form of diagrams, flowcharts, or mind maps. This helps to visualize multiple aspects of the problem and the relationships between them.

C. Find results

"Finding results" is another key step in the systems thinking process, which focuses on the various potential consequences and impacts that a problem can have.

This step requires us to not only consider the immediate impact of the problem, but also anticipate the possible indirect effects and long-term consequences. Here's what the "Find Results" steps look like:

1. Predict possible outcomes:

• Analyze the various outcomes that a problem can lead to that may have an impact on different stakeholders or areas of the business. For example, unsatisfactory task progress may directly affect the team's performance, but it may also have an indirect impact on team morale, customer satisfaction, market competitiveness, etc.

Consider the different subjects:

• When analyzing the results, it is necessary to consider the perspectives of different subjects. This means understanding the impact of the problem on different groups such as team members, management, customers, suppliers, etc.

Concentrence:

• The "find results" step emphasizes the importance of empathy, i.e., predicting possible outcomes based on an understanding of human nature and social behavior. This requires us to put ourselves in the shoes of others and how they might react and feel.

D, Fanway

Finding loops involves identifying and analyzing the feedback loops behind problems, especially those that cause problems to persist or worsen.

By identifying these circuits, we can find ways to break the vicious cycle. The details of the "Loopback" step are as follows:

1. Identifying Enhancement Loops:

• An augmentation loop refers to a self-reinforcing mechanism in a system that can lead to an increasing number of behaviors or states in the system. For example, performance pressure leads to the relaxation of selection criteria, which in turn leads to lag in task progress, which in turn increases performance pressure and forms a vicious circle.

Analyze the impact of the loop:

• Analyze how each reinforcement loop affects the behavior and state of the system, and how they interact with each other. This helps us understand the persistence and complexity of the problem.

Look for leverage points to solve the problem:

• After identifying the reinforcement loops, look for leverage points where you can intervene in these loops. A leverage point is a key element in a system where small changes can have a large systemic impact.

Developing interventions:

• Based on an understanding of the augmentation circuit, develop specific interventions to break the vicious cycle. This could include changing policies, adjusting processes, providing training, improving communication, and more.

Implementation and monitoring:

• Implement interventions and continuously monitor their effects to ensure that the actions taken are effective in changing the dynamics of the system to solve the problem.

03. Write at the end

More important than diligence is the ability to think systematically, because diligence can lead you to a low level of repetition, while depth can help you understand the essence of the problem deeply and solve it more effectively.

Hope this article can be helpful to you.