[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.4.12
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened mixed, and then showed a narrow range of shocks, the two stocks fell more and rose less, more than 3,300 stocks were green, the half-day turnover was 471.3 billion, and the net inflow of northbound funds was 5.377 billion.
For the current situation of the A-share market, I think we should pay close attention to the pressure performance brought by the 5-day moving average of the broader market, a key indicator of the market in the short term, which is like a "barometer" in the minds of short-term traders, and its direction directly affects the recent market sentiment and buying and selling decisions. At the moment, the market is in a delicate balance, and whether the technology sector can successfully lead a new round of upward momentum and thereby boost overall market sentiment will be the key to breaking through this short-term pressure.
It is worth noting that the recent market volume has shown a gradual contraction trend, stable at a low level of about 800 billion for several consecutive days, compared with the previous trillion-level trading activity has declined significantly, and the shrinkage of volume and energy means that the market trading heat has cooled, which not only increases the difficulty of operation, but also indicates that the persistence of hot topics may weaken, and the risk of blindly chasing higher has increased significantly.
In view of the current volume and energy situation, it is particularly important to flexibly follow the market trend, and the prudent approach is to remain moderately cautious and adopt a wait-and-see strategy before the volume is effectively amplified, and avoid frequent operations in a market environment that lacks sufficient momentum support. At the same time, although the short-term market may show a volatile pattern, given the limited space below, there is no need to worry too much about a large pullback.
Next, with the arrival of the performance disclosure season of listed companies, the market is expected to carry out a new round of value revaluation and direction selection based on real operating data, so we should wait patiently for the results announcement to be released, and comprehensively judge the market trend in the next stage based on the fundamentals of specific companies, as well as macroeconomic policies and other factors.
From the perspective of sectors, precious metals, consumer electronics, and communication equipment led the gains today, while batteries, genetically modified, and insurance sectors led the declines today.
From the perspective of capital, 5G, gold, and electronics are the main inflows, and power equipment, lithium batteries, and financial are the main net outflows.
From the perspective of the index, communication equipment, communication technology, and 5G communication were among the top daily gainers, while CS batteries, new energy batteries, and real estate were the last to increase daily.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly change): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column expands, indicator line runs below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross converges upward, J value probes the top and turns heads, BOLL channel opening spreads, stock index runs above the middle rail.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average death fork, 10-day and 20-day moving averages, MACD indicator death fork, green column expansion, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator death fork spread downward, J value bottoming, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running below the middle track.
Analysis: In the short term, yesterday's pullback, so that the index is currently under greater pressure, although today has bottomed out, but it is obvious that the upper average death fork suppressed the rebound of the index, and may be followed by a technical pullback, after re-arrangement, in order to seek a breakthrough again.
【Fundamentals & News】
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said that it will remove restrictions on foreign ownership in Internet data centers and other businesses in pilot areas. (Foreign-owned)
In March, the number of public charging piles nationwide increased by 83,000, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%. (Charging pile)
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales from January to March totaled 6.606 million units and 6.72 million units, up 6.4% and 10.6% y/y, respectively. (Automotive)
· According to CINNO Research data, the sales volume of domestic consumer-grade AR devices in 2023 will be 227,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 138.9%. (Consumer Electronics)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.09, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.90, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 26.84, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 42.54, undervaluation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.60, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.06, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 21.73, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
Semiconductors: With the gradual recovery of the global economy and the acceleration of technological innovation, the global semiconductor market has shown a steady growth momentum at the beginning of 2024. According to the latest data, in January this year, global semiconductor sales increased by 15.2% compared with the same period last year, which has been three consecutive months to maintain a positive year-on-year growth trend, although from the previous month, sales have a slight correction of 2.1%, but the overall upward trend is still obvious.
It is worth noting that the authoritative WSTS predicts that the sales of the global semiconductor market in 2024 are expected to reach a high of 588 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.1%, which highlights the long-term positive fundamentals of the industry. At the market demand level, we have observed obvious structural changes, the demand in the field of consumer electronics is recovering moderately, smartphones and PCs, as the two pillars of the consumer electronics field, are expected to have shipment growth of 4% and 7.6% respectively, especially the penetration rate of the new generation of smartphones and PC devices equipped with AI technology is accelerating, which indicates that the dependence on high-performance chips for smart applications will further deepen in the future.
At the same time, within the semiconductor industry chain, the memory market price has shown a continuous upward trend, reflecting the positive changes in supply and demand, suggesting that the cyclical bottom of the semiconductor industry has been established and is expected to usher in a new round of cyclical recovery. For ordinary investors, this means that the layout of semiconductor companies that benefit from the recovery of consumer electronics, the popularization of AI technology and the growth of demand for memory chips may obtain more ideal return opportunities in the medium term.
In view of the above background, investors can focus on semiconductor companies with core technological innovation capabilities, especially in AI processors, advanced storage solutions, and market segments closely related to consumer electronics.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: GEM, Kechuang 50, Mainland Consumption, CSI Liquor, CS Smart Automobile, Military Index, CSI Securities Insurance.
Ready to get off: Bonus Opportunities, Belt and Road, Gold Concept, Gold ETF.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.