▪ On April 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest U.S. inflation data: U.S. CPI increased by 3.5% year-on-year in March, higher than market expectations of 3.4%, and core CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with expectations of 3.7%.
▪ As a result, the market's expectation of the Fed starting to cut interest rates has also been postponed, and the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to about 20%. (Source: Wind, CME Fedwatch, as of April 11, 2024)
▪ What macro trends are behind the resilience of U.S. inflation?
▪ Looking ahead, what should be done to invest in A-shares, fixed income and U.S. stocks?
▪ Today, Xiaopu will take everyone to take a plate together.
A-shares: global demand expansion,
China's export chain and non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit
Looking back, the current resilience of US inflation may be due to the expansion of demand in major global markets.
Guided by expectations that the Fed will stop raising interest rates since the end of last year and start cutting interest rates, US financial conditions began to gradually ease at the end of last year, with the 10-year Treasury interest rate falling from a high of 5% in October 2023 to 3.8% at the beginning of this year. This has led to the resurgence of its real estate demand, supporting the strengthening of related durable goods consumer demand. In addition, benefiting from the rapid development of the AI industry, large model training and data centers have also catalyzed the new demand for electricity and metals. (Data source: Wind, as of April 10, 2024)
01
Judging from the data, the global manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.6 in March, which has been higher than the boom and bust line for three consecutive months. Among them, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States rebounded by 2.5pp to 50.3, the United Kingdom and Japan rebounded by 2.8pp and 1.0pp to 50.3 and 48.2 respectively.
(Data source: Wind, as of April 10, 2024)
02
Against the backdrop of a rebound in global demand, we believe that the mainland's economy in the first quarter may exceed expectations. In A-shares, you may be able to focus on directions with a high degree of correlation with export sectors, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, consumer electronics, construction machinery, home appliances, etc.
(Risk Warning: The industries mentioned above are for example only and do not constitute any investment advice. ）
Focus on the index
CSI A50 Index
Preferred leader/balanced tracking industry/layout macro trend
Fixed income: around the changes in domestic macro fundamentals,
Focus on short-end assets with better certainty
Generally speaking, there is a certain seesaw effect between the stock and bond markets. However, the shift in market risk appetite is also usually a slower process.
Taking the past March as an example, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI Total Bond Index both closed up, rising 0.86% and 0.22% respectively in March, showing a phased "double bull of stocks and bonds". (Data source: Wind, as of April 10, 2024)
Looking ahead, although there is a possibility that GDP performance will exceed expectations in the first quarter, we believe that the current is still in the early stage of economic recovery, and the characteristics of the stock market structural market are obvious. Therefore, for investors with low risk appetite, they can still pay attention to short- and medium-term bond assets.
These bonds have a remaining maturity of no more than three years, are subject to less interest rate risk, and are less volatile than assets such as stocks and long-term bonds. It is still an important choice for investors with low and medium risk appetite to allocate household assets.
Preferred Products:
SPDB AXA Ji Xin 90 days
Class A 012356 Class C 012357
Focus on short-term bonds/90-day holding period/strict risk control
Returns 9.81% since inception
Benchmark for the same period7.00%
Data source: wind, as of 2024.3.27;
The results have been reviewed by the custodian bank
SPDB AXA Ji Xin 90-day Rolling Holding Short-term Bond Securities Investment Fund Class A/C was established on 2021-06-08, the fund risk level is R2-medium and low risk, and the benchmark of fund performance is the yield of China Bond Composite Wealth (less than 1 year) index * 90% + bank one-year time deposit interest rate (after tax) * 10%. According to the fund's regular report, as of 2023/12/31, the cumulative net value return of the fund's A/C shares in 2022-2023 is 2.48%/2.28% and 3.76%/3.56% respectively, and the benchmark growth rate of fund performance in the corresponding range is 2.26% and 2.53% respectively, and the return rate of return since the establishment of the fund is (A/C%) 8.84%/8.29% respectively, and the benchmark growth rate is (A/C%) 6.31% in the same period.
U.S. stocks: AI may constitute a long-term support for the technology industry,
A short-term correction may be a good time to add to your position
For the U.S. stock market, we believe that the market will continue to play the timing of the first interest rate cut before the Fed's June interest rate meeting, and the release of important economic data and Fed officials' speeches may lead to increased market volatility.
However, entering the earnings season, we believe that the performance of listed companies will have a stronger impact on the performance of stock prices.
Taking the Big 7 that were strong last year as an example, the performance of these seven stocks has also begun to diverge this year according to changes in performance. Nvidia and Google's chip and large model businesses continued to raise investors' expectations for their profitability, which was stronger than the Nasdaq in March, while Apple and Tesla began to perform weaker than other technology stocks and the Nasdaq due to fierce industry competition.
(Data source: Wind, as of 2024.4.10; the stocks mentioned above are for example only and do not constitute any investment advice, the fund is risky, and investment should be cautious.) ）
As a result, the delay in the Fed's rate cut may affect the valuation of listed companies, but for companies with solid fundamentals, we can still focus on earnings driven opportunities.
For ordinary investors who want to invest in U.S. stocks, we can pay more attention to actively managed funds, and conduct in-depth screening of listed companies through the active management capabilities of professional investors, so as to enhance the ability of the portfolio to resist volatility and grasp the long-term trend.
Preferred Products:
AXA SPDB Global Intelligent Technology QDII
Class A 016555 Class C 014002
Focus on intelligent technology / international management vision / Considerable returns
Last Year Change43.79%
The Nasdaq rose 40.33% during the same period
Benchmark for the same period21.22%
Data source: wind, as of 2024.2.29, the data has been reviewed by the custodian bank.
Fund Class A/C was established on 2019-01-29/2021-11-03 respectively, the fund risk level is R4-medium and high risk, and the fund performance benchmark is MSCI All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI Index) total return. According to the fund's regular report, as of 2023/12/31, the cumulative net value return of the fund's class A/C shares in 2023-2020 was 40.58%/39.86%, -31.64%/-31.99%, 6.54%, and 35.21%, respectively, and the benchmark growth rates of fund performance in the corresponding range were 24.67%, -10.96%, 15.52%, and 9.15% respectively. According to Wind, after review by the custodian bank, as of 2024/2/29, the return of the fund's class A/C shares in the past one year, the past two years, the past three years, and since its inception were 43.79%/43.26%, 24.60%/23.36%, 10.63%, and 77.06%/3.28%, respectively, and the benchmark growth rate of performance in the same period was 21.22%, 12.47%, 21.73%, and 64.02%/5.50%.
SPDB Global Intelligent Technology Fund Manager has no other products of the same kind under management.
SPDB Ji Xin Fund Manager manages other bond funds, including:
The establishment date of AXA SPDB Joy 30-day Holding Period Bond Securities Investment Fund is 2023-12-06, and the risk level of the fund is R2-Medium and Low Risk. If the fund has been established for less than six months, the performance will not be displayed for the time being.
SPDB AXA Prudentus 3-Month Regular Open Bond Securities Investment Fund was established on 2023-01-18, with a risk rating of R2-medium and low risk, and the benchmark of fund performance is the yield of China Bond Composite (Full Price) Index. According to the fund's regular report, as of 2023/12/31, the cumulative net value return of the fund share in 2023 is 3.33%, and the benchmark growth rate of the fund performance in the corresponding range is 2.11%. The return since inception is 3.33%, compared to 2.09% over the same period.
SPDB AXA Shenghua One-Year Regular Open Bond Originated Securities Investment Fund was established on 2021-04-13, with a risk rating of R2-medium and low risk, and the benchmark of fund performance is the yield of CSI Composite Bond Index. According to the fund's regular report, as of 2023/12/31, the cumulative net value return of the fund share in 2022-2023 is 2.45% and 3.74%, the benchmark growth rate of fund performance in the corresponding range is 3.32% and 4.81%, the return rate of the fund since its inception is 9.18%, and the benchmark growth rate is 12.71% in the same period.
SPDB AXA Shengxi One-Year Regular Open Bond Originated Securities Investment Fund was established on 2020-03-30, with a risk rating of R2-medium and low risk, and the benchmark of fund performance is the yield of CSI Composite Bond Index. According to the fund's regular report, as of 2023/12/31, the cumulative net return of the fund share from 2021 to 2023 was 4.98%, 2.02%, and 3.83% respectively, and the benchmark growth rate of fund performance in the corresponding interval was 5.23%, 3.32%, and 4.81% respectively, and the return rate of the fund was 10.56% since its establishment, and the benchmark growth rate was 14.48% over the same period.
SPDB AXA Shengzhi One-Year Regular Open Bond Originated Securities Investment Fund was established on 2020-03-26, with a fund risk rating of R2-medium and low risk, and the benchmark of fund performance is the yield of CSI Composite Bond Index. According to the fund's regular report, as of 2023/12/31, the cumulative net return of the fund share from 2021 to 2023 was 3.66%, 2.63%, and 6.04%, respectively, and the benchmark growth rate of fund performance in the corresponding range was 5.23%, 3.32%, and 4.81% respectively. The return of the fund since its inception is 12.08%, and the benchmark growth rate is 14.64% over the same period.
SPDB AXA Wenxin 120-day Rolling Holding Short and Medium Bond Securities Investment Fund Class A/C was established on 2022-06-22, the risk level of the fund is R2-medium and low risk, and the benchmark of fund performance is the return rate of China Bond Composite Wealth (1-3 years) index * 45% + the return rate of China Bond Composite Wealth (less than 1 year) index * 45% + one-year time deposit interest rate (after tax) * 10%. The annual return of the fund's A/C share in 2023 is 4.04%/3.83%, compared to 2.96% over the same period, and the return of the fund since its inception is (A/C)5.91%/5.57%, respectively, and the benchmark growth rate is (A/C) 3.96% over the same period.
SPDB AXA Short and Medium Term Bond Securities Investment Fund Class A/C was established on 2018-10-25, the fund risk level is R2-medium and low risk, and the benchmark of fund performance is the return rate of China Bond Total Wealth (1-3 years) index * 80% + one-year time deposit interest rate (after tax) * 20%. According to the fund's regular report, as of 2023/12/31, the cumulative net value return of the fund's class A/C shares in 2023-2019 is 3.47%/3.36%, 2.10%/2.00%, 3.29%/3.19%, 3.01%/2.86%, and 3.88%/3.68%, respectively, and the benchmark growth rates of fund performance in the corresponding range are 2.60%, 2.48%, 3.27%, 2.37%, and 3.39% respectively Since the inception of the fund, the return rate has been (A/C) 17.63%/16.84%, respectively, and the benchmark growth rate over the same period is (A/C) 16.08%.
Risk Warning: Funds are risky, and investment should be cautious. The risk level of this product is R2-medium to low risk. The opinions and comments provided in this material are for informational purposes only and do not constitute any operational advice or recommendation of the securities mentioned. This information is owned by our company, and without written permission, no institution or individual may delete or modify the content contrary to the original intention. The fund manager promises to manage the fund assets diligently and responsibly in accordance with the principle of integrity and rigor, but does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable, nor does it guarantee a minimum return. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. The mainland fund has been in operation for a relatively short period of time and does not reflect all stages of the development of the stock market. Before investing in the Fund, investors should carefully read the Fund Contract and Prospectus and other legal documents. If you need to purchase this fund, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, do a good risk assessment in advance, and purchase fund products with matching risk levels according to your own risk tolerance. When subscribing to the agency, the risk level of this product is subject to the risk rating rules of the agency.