[Introduction: Plagued by various factors, Tesla's deliveries in the first quarter of this year hit a new low in five quarters. Subsequently, Musk announced that Tesla was about to release a model of the Robotaxi. There are uncertainties about whether Tesla's FSD technology is mature enough to support Robotaxi, and whether Tesla's stock price will rise rapidly because of the Robotaxi business. 】
Written by Zhang Dachuan and edited by He Zi
As the originator of the new power car companies, Tesla encountered the dilemma of pushing the back waves of the Yangtze River to the front waves?
On April 2, local time in the United States, Tesla announced its delivery data for the first quarter. During the reporting period, Tesla's global deliveries reached 386,800 vehicles, down 8.5% year-on-year and 20.2% quarter-on-quarter, setting a new low in deliveries in the past five quarters, and also falling below the 400,000 quarterly delivery mark for the first time since the third quarter of 2022. Affected by the record low delivery data, Tesla's stock price fell by 7% at one point, and its market value evaporated by nearly $200 billion. Statistics show that Tesla's stock price fell by 29% in the first quarter, the largest decline since its IPO in 2010.
Hybrids are more popular in the U.S. market
Tesla's explanations for the reduction in deliveries include the ramp-up of production of the refreshed Model 3 at its Fremont plant in California, the shutdown of the factory due to the fire at the Berlin Gigafactory, and the impact on logistics due to the Red Sea conflict.
In fact, Tesla has avoided one main reason: in the domestic new energy vehicle market in the United States, hybrid vehicles have begun to be more popular with consumers than pure electric vehicles. In 2023, U.S. hybrid vehicle sales will exceed 1 million units for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 76%, and the sales of hybrid vehicles have surpassed that of electric vehicles. This is why after the strike crisis last year, the three major U.S. car companies postponed the production of some electric vehicle models and reduced investment in related fields. In the first two months of this year, sales of hybrid vehicles in the United States increased by 50%, surpassing pure electric vehicles in both absolute terms and growth. Competitors such as GM and Ford continue to launch electric models, and it is not surprising that Tesla is bearish without hybrid technology.
In addition, there is another factor that has to be mentioned is the Chinese electric vehicle factor. Chinese automakers, including BYD, Geely and Chery, are launching electric vehicles in overseas markets around the world outside of the United States. China's electric vehicles are not lagging behind Tesla's models that were not replaced a few years ago in terms of performance indicators, and they are also more advantageous in terms of cost. If it weren't for the tariff protection in the United States, China's electric vehicles would have already conquered the domestic electric vehicle market in the United States.
Tesla's new model is on the way
Around the world, there's no denying consumers' appetite for new models. Even in the European and American markets, where the competition is not very fierce, as traditional car companies launch new electric vehicles, if Tesla does not launch new models, then the previous advantages will slowly be caught up by the car companies behind them. For Tesla, the top priority now is to launch a $25,000 electric car as soon as possible. With Tesla's brand appeal, the launch of the $25,000 electric vehicle will be able to receive a lot of orders, helping Tesla, which is now slightly weak in sales growth, to reach a new volume level. Especially considering that Tesla's Mexico factory is about to start production, and it has also been rumored to invest in India. A $25,000 electric car means a lot to Tesla in many markets where purchasing power isn't strong.
However, building an entry-level electric car is not an easy task for a company like Tesla. The cost of electric vehicles is there, and it is a very high test for the entire engineering team to compress the selling price to within $25,000 while also meeting a certain gross profit margin per vehicle. And as Chinese electric vehicle companies with relatively large cost-effective advantages have also begun to enter various markets around the world, it is also a huge challenge to design a model that can meet the needs of most users around the world.
What Tesla can do before the launch of the new model is to ramp up production of the Cybertruck as soon as possible. Considering the car culture in the North American market, pure electric pickup trucks like the Cybertruck are still more sought after by consumers. Compared with the many uncertainties in the development of the Model 2, maximizing the production ramp-up progress of the Cybertruck can not only increase Tesla's sales, but also a shortcut to increase Tesla's stock price.
Robotaxi will not be Tesla's savior in the short term
In response to the drop in Tesla's stock price, Musk also sent a bombshell message on the X platform: on August 8, Tesla will release a robotaxi, a self-driving taxi.
For Tesla, entering the Robotaxi market is undoubtedly a big gamble.
On the one hand, Tesla's FSD is indeed the world's leading intelligent driving system. In particular, the recently released beta version of FSD has a certain lead in terms of AI. According to Tesla, the current deployment of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in the United States may have reached about 2 million, and the Autopilot software stack is already running on more than 6 million vehicles worldwide. Recently, Tesla also announced that its fleet will exceed 1 billion miles of FSD mileage by the end of 2023. If it enters the Robotaxi field, it will be able to help Tesla obtain more high-quality data on real road scenarios, which will help Tesla train its algorithms more efficiently.
But on the other hand, Robotaxi faces a complex scenario that Tesla may not have encountered before. Assuming that there is no safety officer in the car, then if any situation occurs, the Robotaxi autonomous driving control system will need to make its own decisions. Last year, Cruise, a subsidiary of General Motors, had to suspend operations due to a variety of problems and injuries during its full commercial deployment in California. This led directly to GM cutting its $1 billion budget and leading to significant layoffs at the company.
Therefore, how Tesla can not step on the pit that Cruise has stepped on, and can use Robotaxi to increase its sales and bring the greatest support for FSD software, will also be the main attraction. However, once Tesla's Robotaxi encountered some problems, then Tesla's radical approach was undoubtedly lifting a stone and shooting itself in the foot.
Comments
Investors are optimistic about Tesla, not because Tesla is an automobile manufacturing company. Whether in terms of scale or profitability, old multinational car companies such as Volkswagen and Toyota have stronger system capabilities. The reason why Tesla's market value can far exceed these competitors is that it has underlying core development capabilities in the three-electric system and intelligent driving technology. As the technological advantage is slowly caught up by competitors, Tesla's stock price will inevitably come under a lot of pressure once the volume of deliveries fluctuates. In the future, if Tesla's market value wants to reach a new high, it still depends on whether it is possible to make a decisive breakthrough in core technology.
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