According to recent data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. underlying inflation measures have exceeded expectations for the third month in a row due to climbing gasoline and housing prices. Specifically, in March this year, the seasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% year-on-year, which exceeded market expectations of 3.4% and hit a new high since September last year. At the same time, the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, which was also higher than the market expectation of 0.3%.
Against this backdrop, US President Joe Biden adjusted his previous remarks at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, saying that although the Fed's future moves are uncertain and may delay the rate cut for a month, he firmly believes that the Fed will cut interest rates at least once this year.
Fueled by dovish remarks, the price of gold has been completely suppressed! The price of gold stocks has also begun to rise under the impetus of gold's huge long-term momentum.
1. Comparison of market capitalization and valuation
Based on the closing price on April 11, 2024, the total market value of Shandong Gold is far ahead, as high as about 140 billion yuan. It is followed by CICC Gold and Yintai Gold, with a total market value of about 50 billion to 60 billion yuan, about half of Shandong Gold. Further down, it is Chifeng Gold, with a total market value of about 30 billion yuan, which is equivalent to another discount. Hunan Gold is discounted on the basis of Chifeng Gold, about 15 billion yuan.
In terms of valuation, there is a big difference, with the highest price-to-sales ratio being Yintai Gold at 7.06, the lowest being Hunan Gold at 0.78 and CICC Gold not high at 1.08, and the highest price-to-book ratio at 6.23 and CICC Gold at 2.72.
Theoretically speaking, the market-to-sales ratio of trading enterprises is not high. To study the valuation differences of the above gold stocks, it is necessary to break down the business type and composition of each company in detail.
2. Volatility comparison
However, the volatility of gold stocks is not much different, with the daily rise and fall of gold prices of about 0.85%, the daily rise and fall of gold stocks between 2% and 3%, the lowest being CICC Gold at about 2.37%, and the highest being Yintai Gold at about 3%.
The purpose of this study is to estimate the quantitative relationship between the increase in the gold price and the increase in the price of gold, which is about 3 times, that is, the price of gold rises by 1%, and it is estimated that the increase in gold stocks is about 3%.
3. Summary
Although gold stocks look the same, but in fact very different, some are mining, some are traders, different business models correspond to different profit models, gross profit margin and net profit margin are not the same, therefore, if it is just a short speculation, it is enough to roughly understand the basic situation above;
Researching a new thing (gold isn't entirely new to me yet) can be quite troublesome. Until now, I've been researching gold for almost a week, and I've only scratched the surface of gold stocks.