It has been more than a week since the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria. At the beginning of the incident, Iran, which threatened to retaliate against Israel, has not moved for a long time, and in the past few days, Tehran has even shown the idea of compromise. According to media reports, Iran's top brass sent a message to the White House saying that if the White House persuades Israel to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement with "Hamas", Iran will abandon its plan to retaliate against Israel. It is clear that Israel is unlikely to sign a permanent ceasefire agreement, and why Iran is still proposing this condition, I think, this may be a signal that Tehran wants to "make a big thing a small thing and a small thing".
The author believes that the main reason why Iran has not made a move for a long time and has not fired the first shot to retaliate against Israel is that it has too much weakness, and if it does not operate properly, the retaliatory action will not only fail to achieve the goal of countering Israel, but will instead turn against itself and bring itself into a very dangerous situation. Some foreign media believe that if Iran dares to retaliate against Israel, Israel will not hesitate to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and the fear of nuclear facilities being bombed is precisely a major weakness of Iran. Leaving aside the military significance of nuclear facilities to Iran, the safety of nuclear facilities is also of paramount importance to Iran from the perspective of civilian use, and nuclear facilities have solved the problem of electricity consumption in many parts of Iran.
Iran's nuclear facilities are not so secure, and there is a significant shortcoming in their defenses: they lack powerful and reliable anti-aircraft missiles. Judging from the public information, most of the anti-aircraft missiles responsible for defending Iran's nuclear facilities are made in Iran. Constrained by the backwardness of military technology, Iran's anti-aircraft missiles, combat effectiveness and reliability are estimated to be not much higher. If Iran retaliates against Israel, it should not be too difficult for Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facilities with Israeli air strikes and use the Israeli army's F-35I stealth fighters and precision cruise missiles to break through Iran's air defense network and destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.
Once the nuclear facilities are destroyed by the Israeli army, Iran's nuclear weapons program will not only be devastated, but also the electricity consumption of residents and industries will also be problematic, which will affect Iran's economy. As long as the weakness of nuclear facilities is there, Iran will not dare to retaliate against Israel lightly. In addition, Iran's delay in making moves against Israel must still be afraid of Israel's strong military strength. In the Israeli army's arsenal, what can threaten Iran is not only the F-35I stealth fighter, but also some weapons that are more lethal than the F-35I. According to the report, this bomb will not be fatal to the human body, but it can completely paralyze Iran's power supply network. In addition, the electromagnetic pulse generated by the explosion of such a bomb can also disable electronic communication equipment and collapse Iran's communication network.
Whether it is a power grid or a communication network, once it is paralyzed for a long time, the economic losses caused can range from hundreds of millions of dollars to billions of dollars, and Iran simply cannot afford such losses. So now Iran does not want to retaliate, but does not dare to retaliate easily, and Tehran has to consider, consider, and wait for a better time. As the saying goes, "if you can't bear it, you will make a big plan".