The South China Sea issue is escalating under the impetus of the United States. On the one hand, it is the United States that has drawn Japan and Australia into the South China Sea and hopes to increase military cooperation, and on the other hand, it is the Philippines that believes that it has the support of its allies and has begun to become more unscrupulous. According to the Global Times, Marcos recently said that he was shocked that Duterte and China had reached a "gentlemen's agreement" on the Ren'ai Jiao issue, and was seeking clarification of this so-called agreement. So, what's going on behind this?
First of all, has Duterte reached a "gentlemen's agreement" with China on Ren'ai Jiao?
Judging from some information previously disclosed by China and the Philippines, during the Duterte administration, there was indeed a "tacit understanding" with China on the South China Sea issue, which of course also includes Ren'ai Jiao, because Ren'ai Jiao has a relatively "special" place compared with other islands and reefs - the Philippine side has a warship that has been illegally "stranded" in the sea area for many years, and there is a need for "supplies".
Chen Xiangmiao, deputy director of the Institute of Marine Sciences of the China Academy of South China Sea, confirmed that after Duterte became president of the Philippines in 2016, China and the Philippines reached a temporary special arrangement on the Ren'ai Jiao issue in order to maintain China-Philippines relations and properly handle the South China Sea factors in China-Philippines relations.
In this "gentlemen's agreement", the Chinese side allows the Philippine side to resupply the personnel stationed on the "beached" warship, but the supply must be communicated by both sides and inspected by the Chinese side, and cannot carry other materials other than humanitarian materials, and the Philippine side cannot send warships or coast guard ships into the Ren'ai Jiao Lagoon.
During the Duterte era, China and the Philippines have been engaged in friendly consultations in the South China Sea and have not exacerbated tensions, but have stepped up cooperation in other areas. When Duterte left office, his approval rating was still as high as 67 percent, an unprecedented number. It also shows that the Filipino people support its South China Sea policy, because the Philippines has gained tremendous benefits from cooperation with China, especially in the introduction of foreign investment and infrastructure construction. However, after Marcos took office, he was eager to surrender to the United States, completely breaking the "tacit understanding" between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea during the Duterte era.
Second, why did Marcos question Duterte?
On the one hand, there is the Marcos administration's South China Sea policy, which is markedly different from Duterte's. Duterte is more concerned about the national interests of the Philippines, and Marcos's current actions have completely become a "pawn" of the United States to challenge China. On the military front, Duterte repeatedly warned the Philippine military that the Philippine military would not be allowed to participate in US exercises in the South China Sea, in order to "avoid suspicion" and not want China to be suspicious. However, as soon as Marcos took office, he opened four more military bases to the US military, three near Nansha and one near the Taiwan Strait, and the signal was very clear.
Politically, Duterte has sought to find a balance between China and the United States, and although the United States and the Philippines are allies, Duterte has visited China five times during his six years in power, without visiting the United States once. Marcos, on the other hand, is completely inclined to the United States, has visited the United States three times since taking office, and also hopes to reach a new agreement with the United States and Japan on the South China Sea issue, and use his brains on the so-called "freedom of navigation."
In addition, the Philippines has not only conducted so-called "joint patrols" with the United States and Australia, but has also recently held joint military exercises with the United States, Japan, and Australia to "flex its muscles" to China.
Marcos and Duterte, on the other hand, were originally political allies, but now their friendship has broken down. In February this year, the conflict between the two became public, and after choking each other on "drug addiction", the two called out on constitutional amendment and territorial sovereignty, and Duterte even openly threatened to promote the "independence" of his hometown of Mindanao. Marcos secretly sent ICC investigators to the Philippines to secretly investigate Duterte, because Lao Du had killed in the anti-drug operation that year, and the ICC called him suspected of "crimes against humanity".
Against this backdrop, Marcos certainly doesn't mind adding another "guilt" to Duterte. It's just that Lao Du reached a "gentleman's agreement" with China, which has nothing to do with the sovereignty of the Philippines, and the Nansha islands and reefs belong to China. On the contrary, the Chinese side also took care of the Philippine "supplies" at Ren'ai Jiao.
Finally, in response to Marcos's question, China put forward a three-point position.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that the reasons for the current situation at Ren'ai Jiao are clear and clear, and China's position on how to deal with the current situation at Ren'ai Jiao is clear, mainly including three points.
First, the Philippine ship's long-term "beaching" violates China's sovereignty and also violates the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and China demands that the Philippine side immediately tow it away and restore the original state of Ren'ai Jiao as if it is empty and without facilities; second, if the Philippine side wants to make supplies for life before the "beached" ship is towed away, the Chinese side is willing to proceed from humanitarian reasons, notify the Chinese side in advance and verify it, and provide convenience, but it must monitor the whole process; third, if the Philippine side transports a large amount of building materials to the ship and tries to build fixed facilities and permanent outposts, the Chinese side will resolutely block it. It remains to be seen how the Marcos administration will react to this.