introduction
After Laos and Thailand, another Southeast Asian country has launched a high-speed rail construction project, and that is Vietnam.
Recently, according to Vietnam's "Youth Daily", the Vietnamese government is discussing the construction of a high-speed railway that runs through the north and south of the country and connects the two core cities - Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City on the basis of the layout of the "north-south meter-gauge railway" that has been used since the French period.
However, although it is in the same Southeast Asian region, it is different from the Kunwan Railway and the Sino-Thai Railway. Vietnam's "north-south high-speed railway" hardly has a hint of Chinese flavor.
In terms of cooperation, it bypasses China, which has strong infrastructure, and turns to Japan and South Korea to undertake construction.
So, what is the reason for Vietnam to make such a decision? Is it a clever strategic layout or a forced trade-off?
1. Vietnam: Japan is more technologically advanced and wary of China
Actually, it is not that Vietnam did not choose China, but that China rejected Vietnam. The Sino-Vietnamese grievances behind the North-South Railway may be a long story.
As early as two decades ago, Vietnam proposed a north-south high-speed rail plan in an attempt to connect the economic center at the southern end of the territory with the political center at the northern end. In fact, it is not difficult to understand why Vietnam has such an idea.
After all, from the map, Vietnam is a long and narrow country, and the country's important cities are concentrated in the coastal zone from south to north. Therefore, the north-south railway, which can maximize the efficiency of transportation, is perfect for Vietnam.
However, due to various reasons, this plan has not been completed, and it has not been completed until now, and it was not until last year that the old thing was restarted. Among them, the biggest problem is nothing more than no money and no technology, so you can only seek help from the outside world.
At first, China was also willing to help Vietnam.
After all, at that time, China was interested in reshaping the transportation landscape in Southeast Asia and put forward the idea of a "Trans-Asian Railway".
That is, through the railway network, the major ASEAN member states will be connected and integrated into the Belt and Road Economic Corridor. For example, the current China-Thailand Railway and Kunwan Railway belong to the Middle and Middle Lines of the Trans-Asian Railway, respectively.
At that time, Vietnam's plan was basically in line with China's vision. It was supposed to be time to sit down and talk about cooperation.
But what I didn't expect was that I would kill Japan halfway. Japanese companies are also interested in investing in Vietnam's high-speed rail and bidding with China.
After many rounds of competition, in 2010, Vietnam actually chose Japan when China's price was lower and more sincere.
You know, Japan's offer was as high as $58.7 billion, while Vietnam's GDP was only $170 billion at that time. And that's just a low-spec railway with a speed of 200 kilometers per hour.
So, why would Vietnam give up on Japan?
The reason given by the Vietnamese authorities is that Japan's technology is better and more trustworthy.
It is true that Japan was the first country in Asia to begin to popularize railways, and it was also the first country to make the concept of "high-speed rail" a reality.
In 1964, the Tokaido Shinkansen, the world's first commercial high-speed railway, was officially put into operation, heralding the beginning of the "railway revolution" of mankind.
Japan's Shinkansen has been admired by countries around the world since its inception. So much so that for a long time in the past, high-speed rail was like a national business card, firmly bound to Japan. When other countries think of high-speed rail, the first thing that comes to mind is Japan.
Before China, the title of "infrastructure madman" belonged to Japan. China's infrastructure rejuvenation is largely based on Japan's success.
At the beginning of the reform and opening up, China's decision-makers made up their minds to let the people sit on China's own high-speed rail after visiting the Japanese Shinkansen.
In addition, 10 years ago, it was indeed the era of the Japanese blow. Vietnam's most influential newspapers are generally dominated by the South, and it is not surprising why Vietnam feels that Japan has more "craftsmanship" than China.
Of course, this is not the direct reason why Vietnam is willing to seek Japan.
After all, judging from the background of the times, the technological gap between China and Japan at that time was not large. They are all ready to carry the Fuxing to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and it is obvious that the technical strength is not lower than that of Japan.
Moreover, Chinese solutions tend to be more affordable than Japan's. Most countries, such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Laos, have chosen China as one of the two choices between China and Japan. And Vietnam is already poor, and it is really impossible to reject China for technical reasons. It must also have something to do with the geopolitical contradictions at the time.
Sure enough, the year Vietnam rejected China coincided with the most tense period of Sino-Vietnamese relations.
The situation in the South China Sea is tense, and anti-China demonstrations have taken place in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, one after another. All walks of life in Vietnam, both civil and official, are at odds with China.
In particular, the Vietnamese government is generally wary of China, fearing that China will use the project to put pressure on Vietnam after undertaking the North-South high-speed railway.
In addition, from a military point of view, the construction of the railway will inevitably involve topographic surveys of sensitive areas, and Vietnam is not at ease.
So, who can best reassure Vietnam? The answer is Japan.
First of all, Japan is Vietnam's largest aid country, and Vietnam is Japan's largest labor exporter. Second, Japan and Vietnam share similar values, regard China as an imaginary enemy, and share a common anti-China stance on territorial and maritime issues.
Therefore, in order to avoid being overturned by the protesters in the middle of the railway tracks, the Vietnamese government chose Japan.
Second, Japan's road construction was ineffective and the project was unfinished, so Vietnam had no choice but to turn to China again
At first, after a field trip to Vietnam, Japanese experts vowed that as long as they were given 20 years, they could repair the north-south high-speed railway.
However, more than ten years have passed, and the grand blueprint in the minds of the Vietnamese people is still only a bubble.
Until now, Vietnam has only relied on the metre-gauge railway left by the French 100 years ago to connect the north and south, and the speed is only a pitiful 50 kilometers per hour.
On the other hand, China's high-speed rail has blossomed everywhere in ASEAN countries, especially the normalized operation of the China-Laos-Wankun railway, which has made Vietnam next door look at it directly.
In December 2022, the China-Laos-Kunwan Railway, which China invested and built in Laos, completed one year of operation and has reaped a lot of benefits.
It transported 8.5 million passengers and 11.2 million tons of goods, including more than 2 million tons of cross-border goods and 1,200 types of goods. Came up with a brilliant report card.
Riding China's economic express, Laos, once the most backward country in Southeast Asia, is now able to use rail revenues to pay off China's debts.
And Vietnam, next door, saw that the project was seriously unfinished, so in desperation, it had no choice but to find China.
Unfortunately, Vietnam will eventually pay the price for its mistaken choices and offensive actions. Just as Vietnam rejected China, China rejected Vietnam's request to build a high-speed railway between the north and the south.
So, why did China, which originally intended to build it, change its mind this time?
Here, thanks to Japan. Fortunately, with Japan's help us try and make mistakes, China will not go astray and step on the "sinkhole" of Vietnam.
When the Japanese arrived in Vietnam, they found that the country had no money in the economy, the officials were corrupt in politics, and the local people were generally unwilling to cooperate with the land requisition, which brought a lot of trouble to the construction. It even brought the entire project to a standstill, making it difficult to move forward.
Especially in terms of economy, Vietnam has no money to build roads, which means that Japan can only lend money to Vietnam first, and then slowly repay the money after they build the railway.
But the question is, can the construction of railways in Vietnam really pay for itself?
You must know that Vietnam's largest trading partner is China, and the north-south high-speed railway built by Japan is not in line with China, and there is no transportation service to and from China, making it difficult for its economic value to be brought into play.
After all, for a country as small as Vietnam, it is really difficult to recoup the cost of building high-speed railways only to improve domestic transportation without communicating with other countries.
Since the project is not commercially viable, the money that Japan lends to Vietnam will become a bad debt, losing money and making no profit at all. It is precisely because it is unprofitable that Japan will let the project go unfinished.
Japan is powerless, and China is unwilling to take over. Vietnam, which is in a bad situation, can only continue to ask Japan.
In July 2022, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met with the executive director of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and asked the Japanese side to provide low-interest loan support for the project.
On January 9, 2023, a week after Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc met with former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki visited Vietnam, and Prime Minister Pham once again asked the Japanese side to provide more financial assistance to help Vietnam build a high-speed railway between the north and south.
However, in the face of Vietnam's repeated begging, Japan has adopted one attitude: it will not refuse.
It was only this year, after long and arduous negotiations, that Japan agreed to the contribution.
On February 26, the German company Siemens reported that it could provide trains and carriages for Vietnam's north-south high-speed railway, and transfer related technologies such as signaling systems and train manufacturing.
In late March, Korea State Railways said it was willing to provide technical and experience support for Vietnam's North-South high-speed rail project.
epilogue
Since then, a lineup of railway projects that is "funded by Japan and supported by Germany and South Korea" has begun to take shape, combining German precision, Korean innovation, and Japanese support.
As for how far Vietnam can build this railway, and whether it will be completed again, it remains to be seen further.
What is certain, however, is that Vietnam's choice to go far is foolish. A high-speed rail that is not commercially viable is bound to exist in isolation and will not have a bright future.
Resources:
1. Zhao Juehuo.1559 kilometers long, Vietnam revitalizes high-speed rail ambitions[J]Global Times, January 20, 2023
2. Wang Daozheng, Vietnam's North-South High-speed Railway Planning and Its Domestic Controversy[J], Journal of Jiangnan University of Social Sciences, 2020, Issue 01