When Biden was celebrating the most significant upgrade in the U.S.-Japan alliance in more than 60 years, there was bad news from the rear that South Korean politics had changed.
At present, the results of the South Korean parliamentary election have been announced, and the opposition Democratic Party of Korea and its satellite parties have locked in 175 seats out of 300 seats, winning a landslide victory, which marks Yoon Suk-yeol becoming a "lame duck".
On the same day, South Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-so and the presidential staff resigned, and Han Dong-hoon, the interim leader of the ruling People's Power Party, also submitted his resignation. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, said that this was not a victory for the parties, but a great victory for the people.
U.S.-Japan-South Korea Alliance
So, what impact will Yoon's election defeat have on South Korean politics?
First, the Democratic Party of Korea may succeed in seizing the "commanding heights" of Congress, paving the way for local elections in two years and presidential elections in three years. In the 2022 election, Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, narrowly lost to Yoon Suk-yeol by 1%.
Now, two years later, the Yoon Suk-yeol government has a high rate of negative evaluations of its administration, and this parliamentary election reflects that public opinion is more optimistic about the Democratic Party. If Lee Jae-myung runs for president again in 2027, the chances of winning are very high. Moreover, the Democratic Party's huge advantage in the National Assembly will also help the party's presidential candidate to become president.
Co-Democratic Party
On the other hand, during the remainder of Yoon Suk-yeol's term, the Democratic Party of Korea will use its advantages to increase its efforts to "gild" Lee Jae-myung and challenge the ruling party. The struggle in South Korean politics is expected to intensify.
Secondly, Yoon Suk-yeol will face the crisis of not issuing the "Blue House" by decree, and at the same time, the rest of his life will also be in danger. According to the results of the vote, the ruling People's Power won only 108 seats, which also brought the opposition party's seats close to 200 seats, and there is almost no restraint in legislation, and Yoon Suk-yeol will continue to maintain the situation of "small and large" for the remaining three years of his term.
At the same time, since the opposition parties hold absolute seats, they can "skip" the ruling party when pushing for legislation in the future. Considering the series of scandals that Kim Jianxi is carrying, Yin Xiyue may not be able to stop it this time. And once it digs deeper, Yoon Suk-yeol will be the cause of Xiao Wall, and it is not ruled out that Lee Jae-myung will initiate his impeachment.
Yoon Suk-yeol
At a deeper level, when Yoon Suk-yeol steps down, it may be difficult to escape the "Blue House curse". When Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, he deliberately moved out of the Blue House, but now it seems that he still can't escape the fate of being liquidated.
Finally, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has become more pro-China and advocates South Korea's independence, and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's policies may come to naught, and the US-Japan-South Korea alliance will be affected. Previously, Lee Jae-myung publicly criticized Yoon Suk-yeol for not provoking China, causing a lot of trouble for South Korea, and causing relations between China and South Korea to deteriorate.
Recently, senior U.S. officials announced that South Korea could become a partner of Aukus. South Korean media directly stated that China's opposition is an element that South Korea needs to consider.
Now that Yoon Suk-yeol has "lame", South Korea will be restricted from participating in the anti-China activities of the US-Japan-South Korea alliance in the future. This also coincides with the previous sentence of the Chinese ambassador to South Korea: "Bet on China to lose and will regret it."
In addition, Lee Jae-myung also opposes Japan's discharge of nuclear wastewater, believing that it is a "declaration of war" against countries bordering the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, he believes that Yoon Suk-yeol chose to become a slave of Japan, in order to curry favor with Japan, ignoring the people's cries about the problem of "forced labor" in Japan.
There are various indications that the opposition parties will block the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's policy toward Japan, and it is very likely that Japan-South Korea security cooperation will change as a result, and the US-Japan-South Korea alliance will usher in unprecedented challenges.
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