When I woke up, I found that the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through the two marks of 7.25 and 7.26 one after another, what happened?
On the evening of April 10, the offshore RMB exchange rate was between 7.24 and 7.25, and on the morning of April 11, as usual, I first looked at various data and found that the exchange rate depreciated to 7.2626, what happened overnight?
It turned out that the United States released the latest data on price changes. In March 2024, the US CPI rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than expected and last month's data, which means that inflation in the United States has not been effectively controlled, coupled with the current hot job market in the United States, the number of new non-farm payrolls in March exceeded 300,000, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have weakened.
The Fed does not cut interest rates or even raise interest rates for a long time, which means that everyone can get good returns as long as they keep the dollar in the bank, and the first step in saving dollars is to exchange the currencies of various countries for dollars, which is equivalent to buying dollars and selling other currencies, resulting in the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of currencies including the yuan.
The dollar index, a measure of the dollar's strength, rose instantly after the release of US inflation data, surging 1.05% to above 105 on April 10, hitting a new high in nearly four months. In addition to the renminbi, the depreciation of mainstream currencies was even more severe, with the British pound and the euro both depreciating by more than 1%, and the yen depreciating by 0.92%. Gold prices, which were negatively correlated with the US dollar index, fell, with London gold down 0.77% on 10 April.
In terms of the capital market, the three major U.S. stock indexes are all in the green, and the Dow Jones is down 1%, what will happen to A-shares on April 11? It is likely to be weakened by the dual impact of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the decline of U.S. stocks.
What's even more exaggerated is that the boss of Da Mo said that the United States may raise interest rates to 8%, which is a bit exaggerated, I don't know what he said for what purpose, but I know that if the interest rate is really raised so high, then the global financial market will usher in disaster, and the economic crisis will be inevitable.
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