The fixed deposit interest rate has been lowered!
At the beginning of this year, a number of small and medium-sized banks in China began to reduce deposit interest rates!
In the near future, many banks have followed up with the "interest rate cut tide", and the banks that have lowered their deposit rates this time are mainly concentrated in Henan, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places!
The reduction ranges from 5 basis points to 45 basis points!
Is a new round of "interest rate cuts" coming?
What are the reasons for these small and medium-sized banks to cut their deposit rates?
Let's talk about them one by one!
First of all, let's talk about the reason for the interest rate cut, which is mainly affected by the decline in net interest margin!
It is understood that at the end of last year, the net interest margin of commercial banks fell below 1.7% for the first time, falling to a new low of 1.6% in recent years;
The decline in net interest margin is also reflected in the annual reports of listed banks, according to the disclosure data: the net interest margin of the six major banks fell by 16 to 31 basis points;
The reason for the net interest margin is also very simple, that is, the decline in the LPR, after the 5-year LPR fell by 25 basis points!
It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the central government has increased its efforts to reduce fees and profits to the real economy, which has made the economy show signs of improvement, such as the latest PMI data to stand above 50 again, and the new orders index has strengthened significantly!
The economy is good, I believe that market confidence will also increase, and the stock market is expected to continue to come out of the rebound!
Although the deposit interest rate has also been lowered this year, the reduction is more than the loan interest rate, and in addition, the adjustment of the interest rate of the stock first home loan also has a certain impact on the net interest margin!
Therefore, the most direct way to alleviate the decline in net interest margin is to reduce the deposit rate!
Is this the beginning of a new round of "interest rate cuts"? Some market participants said: Judging from the current trend, the possibility of lowering the deposit interest rate cannot be ruled out!
Index Movements:
On Wednesday, the trend of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares was diametrically opposed, and Hong Kong stocks were not affected by negative factors, and fluctuated upward throughout the day, rising nearly 2% intraday.
On the A-share side, it seems that the impact is relatively large, and the three major A-share indexes have fallen across the board. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 1%, the ChiNext Index fell by more than 2%, and the main funds fled by nearly 40 billion
On Tuesday, the market walked out of the standard weak rebound market, and the lowest intraday drop was 3013 points, both the rebound volume and the strength of the rebound were relatively weak
As a result, the market continued to fall on Wednesday under the influence of external bearishness, and the trading volume on Wednesday increased, but the volume was relatively small!
When will it stabilize next?
Personally, I think the market is expected to stabilize in the second half of the week.
First of all, from the perspective of trading volume, the trading volume of some funds has shrunk sharply in the near future, which is likely to avoid performance thunder and the release of the Federal Reserve's CPI and mainland economic data;
Next, as long as the CPI of the United States has landed, and the economic data of the mainland has also landed, some wait-and-see funds will choose to re-enter the market!
Thursday is an important time node, if after the important data landing, the market can bottom out again, and re-increase the volume of the attack, the short-term is still expected to continue to attack 3090 points;
However, judging from the current market trend, the probability of an upward attack will be relatively small, and the market has no obvious main line to drive the market upward, and only relying on resource stocks to rise cannot drive the strength of the market;
If you want to drive the market to strengthen, then only the big technology sector can drive market sentiment!
At present, some technology stocks are in a downward trend, and funds will not choose to take over, resulting in a relatively small probability that the market will want to attack next.
And the technical side of the market has also appeared in a broken pattern, whether it falls below the short-term and medium-term moving average, or below the 5-week K moving average, it means that the market is expected to continue to adjust next.
Only if the market re-increases the volume on the 5-day line or 10-day line, then there may be signs of stabilization in the short term, and before this standard is met, the market will continue to see the adjustment to the range of 3000 to 3200 points;