This content comes from @What is worth buying APP, and the views only represent the author's own |Author: Zhijiu Monk
Welcome to pay attention to the "Wine Monk"!
These days, I have been receiving news, and many drinking friends are urgently asking: Why did Moutai Feitian fall so hard? Is the price of liquor about to collapse?
I said that it is still far from the collapse, and the price of Moutai has continued to fall this week, the direct cause is the pot of Xunfeng, but in the long run, it is a normal return - my price expectation for Moutai Feitian is between 2400-2500 yuan.
Once the price of Moutai Feitian really stabilizes at 2,400-2,500 yuan for a long time, the high-end products of other famous wines will inevitably be affected, and it is not surprising that the market will fall by ten points or more.
I made a table of the price changes of Moutai Feitian from April 1st to April 10th:
Sanmao fell from 2,650 yuan on April 1 to 2,500 yuan on April 10, and the original box fell from 2,890 yuan on April 1 to 2,790 yuan on April 10.
Some people may think that it has only fallen by more than 100 yuan, which is a big deal? But when it falls on Moutai Feitian, whose price is as stable as an old dog, this is a big deal.
The "April 2024 Baijiu Purchase Guide" I wrote on the last day of March boldly lowered the price of Moutai loose bottles to 2,650 yuan, but I didn't expect it to be hammered to 2,500 yuan ten days later. According to this trend, the price will fall below 2,500 yuan tonight or tomorrow at the latest. It's been a long time since we've seen anything like it.
I went out two days ago, I didn't have the computer with me, and the mobile phone code word was a bit troublesome, although many people asked about it, but I also endured not writing an article. I was in a remote city at that time, and I went to the local terminal channel to shop, I don't know if the cold has not yet arrived, or they are stiff, the price is still the old price, there is no change.
When I returned to Shanghai and asked the wine merchants, they generally wanted to clear the high-priced inventory in their hands and appropriately buy some low-priced Moutai to hedge, in order to minimize the loss, but also showed a certain worry: no one knew where the trough was......
Different from the liquor consumed by ordinary people every day, Moutai is partly consumed, and partly is constantly looking for people to take over.
The most direct reason why the price of Moutai Feitian has fallen all the way this time is Xunfeng wine, that is, Xunfeng 375ml Moutai Feitian wine, the acquisition cost of this wine in the Xunfeng digital world is about 1500 yuan, and the market price is about 1600 yuan, but because the price of Moutai has shrunk significantly, there is no arbitrage space, and many users are sitting quietly and in the wait-and-see stage even if they have the qualifications for synthesis.
Extrapolating the cost of Xunfeng 375ml, the price of a pound of Moutai is about 2100 yuan, considering the business and gift attributes of formal wear, 2300-2400 yuan may be a more reasonable price. It is not far from my expectation that Moutai Feitian will be between 2400-2500 yuan.
In the past, Moutai launched a 100ml cutie, which is not small, but it has not caused any impact compared with this Xunfeng wine. Why is the response of Xunfeng's 200,000 bottles of 375ml Moutai Feitian much greater?
The reason is very simple, we often hear the funny saying that "so-and-so wine is flat for Moutai Feitian", and without exception it has been scorned by everyone - what kind of goods are you?
But 375ml Xunfeng Moutai can really replace 500ml Moutai Feitian to a certain extent, according to their catties, it is no problem to replace seventy out of five Moutai Feitian, whether it is a business banquet or a gift attribute, it can barely be reached. I've never met two or two on a drinking occasion, but I've drunk a lot of times.
If Moutai launches a 485ml Moutai Feitian, and the price of the catty is about 2,000 yuan, then the 500ml Moutai Feitian will instantly fall to about 2,100 yuan. The reason is very simple, the closer the specifications, the easier it is to be kicked off the throne by the little brother when a pound of Moutai Feitian.
From this point of view, only Moutai can beat Moutai in a short time.
In recent years, Moutai Distillery has been increasing the investment of direct sales channels, and the positive side has been turned over and over again, but from another point of view, this is also a helpless move for the distillery to pursue growth under the condition that a series of new liquor products cannot support the field. After trying and trying, it was found that only Moutai Feitian is a tireless cow, and it needs to be constantly squeezed in order to inject one injection of stimulant after another in time to increase profit margins when sales growth is sluggish.
The decline in the price of Moutai is the inevitable result of the gradual return of rational consumption, and it is also a phenomenon that will inevitably be caused by the macro factor of weak consumption. Xunfeng 375ml Moutai Feitian has accelerated the pace of price reduction, but it is not the real reason, and the pot is not the turn of Xunfeng wine.
There is one thing to say, as far as Xunfeng is concerned, compared with the sales volume of Moutai, it is only a drop in the bucket.
Today's price trend shows that the market's confidence in Moutai is not as strong as imagined, perhaps because the wine merchants are facing huge financial pressure, maybe the wine merchants are not confident in the future price, or maybe the balance between liquidity and social inventory has been tilted...... In short, there are thousands of reasons, and this time it was stimulated by Xunfeng wine.
For this phenomenon, there is no need to be mysterious, smile and say nothing, but it means something, and he looks like a worldly master who "you know and I understand, it all depends on the environment". The underlying logic is very simple, but it is a bit contrary to Moutai, so that some people dare not and do not want to believe it.
However, after this period of hustle and bustle, can Moutai Feitian still fight back? You must know that the price collapse is like a mountain, the price increase is like a thread, it is easy to fall from a high place, and it is difficult to climb back again.
Moutai's direct sales strategy over the years has "offended" many people, in good times you are good and I am good, but in bad times you may not be able to wait for the next time you will be united in the city.
For example, isn't the old monster of the stars powerful? Of course it's powerful! There aren't many people who can beat him in the whole book, but half of his fame depends on poison and half by blowing.
Under the high love of everyone collecting firewood and flames, Moutai's status is like Shaolin Wudang, and there is no need for disciples and grandchildren to advocate boundless mana for the time being, but Zhang Sloppy, who has not killed anyone for decades, will also make people forget his prestige for sweeping away demons, so that the young people dare to go up the mountain. Does Moutai have the confidence to be famous and eternal?
In the 2021 article, it was written: The dense distribution of wine merchants covers almost all consumers, and the tentacles extend to every corner of the streets and alleys, which is also the spider web for wineries to sell wine to consumers.
No matter how powerful the distillery is, it can't cover every corner of the product, it has to rely on layer after layer to constantly peel off the cocoon, and Moutai's country is also like this step by step, no exception.
Many investors and practitioners are still full of confidence in the price of Moutai Feitian, which probably comes from the following:
First, Moutai cannot fall, and the country will take action.
This statement is the most absurd, Moutai is at most Guizhou's fragrant bait, is the leading brother of the local poverty alleviation, for the country, the high price of Moutai is not so important, this is not even a going out of the enterprise, it is not the turn of the country to shoot, there is no need to shoot. After all, even if the price of Moutai falls again, it can still live well, which is nothing more than hurting the interests of some investors, shareholders and related practitioners.
To outsiders, this is not a problem at all.
The second is that Moutai Distillery has the ability to raise the price and can raise the price to the position they want.
This argument is untenable, and I have heard many Moutai stakeholders swear by it many years ago: Moutai will definitely stabilize the price of Feitian at 4,000 yuan for how long.
The last time I heard a similar statement was that they were going to nail the Zodiac Moutai to the 4,000 gear, what was the result?
Moutai is just a company, it is a company with a deep background and strong strength, but no enterprise is omnipotent, if they can do whatever they want as they understand Maotai, it is not an enterprise.
The third is the various attributes attached to Moutai itself.
This is the only price anchor that makes sense. But if the price of Moutai Feitian falls between 2400-2500 yuan, it will not affect those "attributes" at all.
It can only be said that due to too many influencing factors, no one can really calculate the price of the next stage of Moutai Feitian by pressing the gourd to float the scoop. One more sentence here, as long as every link can be taxed in accordance with the law, I support Moutai Feitian to sell it for 10,000 yuan.
The price changes during this period have also triggered various discussions, and some experts believe that Moutai is still in short supply, Moutai has a strong ability to regulate and control, and more and more people consume Moutai. I firmly oppose similar statements, unless Moutai stops production and reduces supply, but last year's revenue of more than 150 billion yuan, and the profit of more than 70 billion yuan, Moutai will reduce the amount and profits?
The answer is obviously no, even if Moutai himself thinks so. Because someone was holding a whip and running forward with a whip in the back.
As for the increasing number of people consuming Moutai, this is even more funny. Is the "increasing" timeline one year in the future, five years in the future, or ten years in the future?
The current price mainly affects the circulation market, and people's hearts are different, and I don't know what kind of door will be born in this kind of calculation and wandering.
For Moutai Distillery, as long as the dynamic sales are stable, there is no need to panic, the ex-factory price is 1169 yuan, the direct settlement price is higher, and more direct sales are the source of profit growth, and consumers also have the opportunity to buy Moutai at a more suitable price, which is nothing more than a little smaller profit margin for dealers, although their profits are still amazing.
But other brands don't patronize and watch the excitement, if there is a fire, it will burn you first, so you should think about what to do as soon as possible!
The author declares that there is no interest in this article, and friends are welcome to communicate rationally and discuss harmoniously~