Source: Photo.com
Recently, the news about the decline in the market price of Feitian Moutai has been on the hot search. Since April 8, Kweichow Moutai's share price has fallen for three consecutive days, and its market value has shrunk by more than 60 billion yuan.
"It's dropped, and the price of loose bottles today is 2,550 yuan. "Regarding the rumors of the price reduction of 53 degrees Feitian Moutai, on April 10, according to the reporter's visit to a number of liquor stores, the price of 53 degrees Feitian Moutai has dropped by 150-200 yuan.
A liquor recycler told reporters: "This time it is a plunge, not just because of the off-season. If there is wine, you must either sell it quickly, or wait for the Mid-Autumn Festival to see the market. ”
Cai Xuefei, a wine commentator and analyst, said: "In addition to the reason that the market is in a normal off-season, the price drop of famous wine is also related to factors such as large social inventory in the early stage. In addition, the concentrated release of Feitian Moutai by individual sellers with large inventory and the concentrated release of 375ml Moutai Xunfeng Liquor caused panic in the market, which also caused a short-term decline in Moutai prices, and the short-term supply of the market as a whole exceeded the demand, which naturally brought about price fluctuations. ”
"I have been engaged in liquor distribution for so many years, and it is the first time I have seen the price of Moutai fall so much. Lao Ma is an "old liquor man" with 12 years of experience in liquor sales, and he admits that since he started in the industry in 2012, the price of Feitian Moutai has fluctuated and risen, and such a decline is rare. "Every time the price rises by about $200, there may be a drop of $10 to $20, but I have never seen such a big drop. ”
Liquor price band distribution
According to the definition in the Industrial Classification of the National Economy (GB/T 4754-2017) issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, liquor refers to a distilled liquor product made by cooking, saccharification, fermentation, distillation, aging and blending with sorghum and other grains as the main raw materials, and daqu, xiaoqu or bran koji and liquor mother as saccharification starter agents.
The main products in the liquor market can be divided into four types: high-end, sub-high-end, mid-end and low-end according to different price ranges.
Competing factions in China's liquor industry
According to market competitiveness and strategic execution, the mainland liquor industry can be divided into four competitive clusters, namely leaders, challengers, followers and niches.
Overall, the number of leaders and challengers in the mainland liquor industry is relatively large, mainly due to the high concentration of the industry and the continuous influx of competitors. Among them, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu occupy the leading quadrant of the liquor market with their strong market competitiveness and strategic execution; The challenger quadrant is distributed in Jinshiyuan, Kouzijiao, Shede Liquor, Yingjiagong Liquor, Shuijingfang, Jinhui Liquor, Elite and many other enterprises; In the follower quadrant, there are companies such as Drunkard Liquor, Tianyoude Liquor, Rock Shares, and Golden Seed Liquor.
The market concentration of China's liquor industry
In recent years, the concentration of the liquor industry has been further improved, the advantageous production capacity has been concentrated in the advantageous production areas, and the industry profits have been concentrated in the leading enterprises. In 2022, the total share of the top 2 enterprises in the mainland liquor industry will be 28.87%, the total share of the top 4 enterprises will be 37.23%, and the total share of the top 8 enterprises will be 45.82%, which belongs to the oligopoly V. type, indicating that the market concentration is high and the leading enterprises have a certain degree of control over the market.
In the face of market competition in the liquor industry, on the whole, there are a large number of raw material suppliers in the mainland liquor industry, mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, including farmers, and the supply is relatively sufficient; At the same time, with the progress of modern agricultural technology, the quality and yield of grains and grains have been improved, and the degree of standardization is relatively high. As a result, suppliers have weak bargaining power over the liquor industry.
In addition, in the low-grade liquor market, due to the large variety of liquor, the differentiation between products is relatively small, and downstream consumers have strong bargaining power. In the mid-to-high-end liquor market, because the enterprises in the industry have a certain reputation, most of them have specific resource advantages, and the mid-to-high-end liquor consumers have low sensitivity to price, so the mid-to-high-end liquor enterprises have strong bargaining power. On the whole, the downstream bargaining power of the low-grade liquor market is strong, and the downstream bargaining power of the mid-to-high-end liquor market is weak.
Looking forward to the development trend of the liquor industry, Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association, said, "Although the momentum and trend of high-quality development of the liquor industry are obvious, we must realize that the industrial structural adjustment in the next 3-5 years is imperative. At the intertwined node of economic recovery and industrial adjustment, how to grasp opportunities and cope with challenges is a topic that every famous wine producing area needs to focus on and study. ”
Song Shuyu mentioned that the total output of liquor has contracted slightly, "on the one hand, the demand for healthy drinking at the consumption level has risen, and the concept of rational consumption has continued to deepen, and on the other hand, the horizontal competition formed by the diversification of consumer drinking demand has intensified, and it is expected that sales revenue and profits will continue to grow, showing structural changes." "At the same time, the market share is constantly concentrated in advantageous production areas, famous wine enterprises and famous wine brands. "Famous wine enterprises have shown strong determination to go through the cycle, the value of famous wine producing areas has gradually bloomed, and the development of industrial clusters has become increasingly prominent. Song Shuyu pointed out.
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For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Demand and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Liquor Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute
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