#记录我的2024#最近一段时间, the actions of various commercial banks have aroused heated discussions in the market, and the most eye-catching thing is that many banks have announced interest rate cuts almost before and after.
1. A number of banks officially announced interest rate cuts?
According to a report by China Fund News, a few days ago, a number of banks "cut interest rates".
Small and medium-sized banks from Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Yunnan and other places have issued announcements intensively, announcing the reduction of the execution interest rate of time deposits. According to incomplete statistics, the reduction in deposit rates ranged from 5 basis points to 45 basis points.
The reporter noted that at the beginning of April, a number of small and medium-sized banks in Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong and other places issued the "Announcement on Adjusting the Execution Interest Rate of Time Deposits" through official channels, announcing the reduction of time deposit interest rates, and the interest rates of whole deposits and withdrawals of different periods such as three months, six months, one year, two years, and three years were involved.
In this interest rate cut, the number of banks in Henan is the majority, and dozens of rural commercial banks and village and township banks have announced a reduction in the interest rate on fixed deposits.
In addition, Zhumadian Rural Commercial Bank, Runan Rural Commercial Bank, Shaanxi Zhashui Rural Commercial Bank, Zhoukou Rural Commercial Bank, Boai Rural Commercial Bank, Xiangfen Wandu Rural Bank, Guangdong Puning Huicheng Rural Bank, Xingning Zhujiang Rural Bank, Dejiang Changzheng Rural Bank, Yunnan Shiping Beiyin Rural Bank, Puyang Zhongyuan Rural Bank, Tanghe County Rural Credit Cooperatives and many other small and medium-sized banks have recently announced that they will reduce their fixed deposit interest rates from the end of March or early April.
However, the magnitude of the rate adjustment and the adjusted interest rate are not the same among the banks. According to media reports, even after the cuts, the five-year fixed deposit execution rate of some village and township banks is still as high as 2.85%, the three-year term is 2.7%, and the two-year and one-year tenors are 2.4% and 2.1% respectively.
Recently, the relevant person in charge of the central bank said that it is necessary to guide banks to lower deposit interest rates by deepening the market-oriented reform of interest rates, and at the same time, there is still room for adjustment of monetary policies such as deposit reserves.
2. Why is the interest rate cut at this time, and what is the impact of the interest rate cut?
Recently, a number of banks have announced a reduction in deposit rates, what does this move mean, why do banks choose to cut interest rates at this time, and what are the implications of interest rate cuts?
First of all, the reduction of deposit interest rates by regional banks in many places is a continuation of the third round of deposit rate cuts by commercial banks in 2023. This trend shows that the banking industry is actively responding to the current economic situation by reducing deposit rates to reduce debt pressure, while also helping to stabilize market expectations and promote the smooth functioning of the economy. It is worth noting that with the further compression of bank deposit and loan spreads, national banks may start a new wave of deposit interest rate cuts in the first half of the year. This forecast reflects that the banking industry is actively seeking new growth sources to cope with the increasing competition in the market while facing pressure on profitability.
Second, the bank's main profit model is to earn interest margins through deposit and loan business. Under the dual pressure of intensified market competition and rising capital costs, banks' profit margins have been squeezed. By lowering the deposit rate, banks can effectively reduce the cost of debt, thereby maintaining or even widening the spread between deposits and loans, which is a support for the profitability of banks. In addition, lowering deposit rates will also help reduce the pressure on banks' capital replenishment, improve their capital adequacy ratios, and enhance their risk resilience.
Third, before the interest rate cut, the phenomenon of "inversion" of deposit rates has attracted much attention. This phenomenon refers to the fact that the interest rate on short-term deposits is higher than the interest rate on long-term deposits, which leads to the preference of depositors to choose short-term deposits, which affects the liability structure of banks. The adjustment of interest rate cuts has undoubtedly played a certain role in alleviating the "inversion" of deposit interest rates. By lowering the interest rate on short-term deposits, the interest rate on long-term deposits will be relatively more attractive, which will help guide depositors to invest their funds in long-term deposits, thereby optimizing the liability structure of banks.
In addition, with the deepening of interest rate liberalization, the phenomenon of interest rate inversion may be automatically corrected. The formation of market interest rates will be more dependent on supply and demand, and banks will set deposit interest rates according to their own risk tolerance and capital needs, which will help eliminate the phenomenon of interest rate inversion and make market interest rates more reasonable.
Fourth, of course, interest rate cuts are not without a cost. For savers, a reduction in deposit rates means less of a return for them. This may cause some savers to turn to other investment channels, such as buying high-risk products such as stocks and funds. Therefore, while cutting interest rates, banks also need to strengthen risk management and control to ensure their own sound operations.
In addition, a rate cut could trigger a chain reaction. For example, a rate cut could boost economic growth by stimulating demand for consumption and investment. But at the same time, interest rate cuts could also exacerbate inflationary pressures, especially if the money supply is large. Therefore, when formulating monetary policy, regulators need to fully consider various factors to ensure the scientificity and effectiveness of the policy.