Recently, I saw a description of parents in Beijing on the Internet:
lives in a house of 10 million or 20 million, has an annual salary of millions, has a Beijing hukou, wears a sweatshirt of more than 100 yuan, sits on the subway for two yuan, and sends the baby to extracurricular classes of more than 100,000 yuan......
It's like wearing a serious suit on the outside and tightening your belt on the inside. This contrast is not surprising to parents in Beijing. After all, parents from all over the country have coveted the Beijing School District for a long time, so much so that many school district housing myths have been created:
An old dilapidated house of 11.4 square meters was sold at a sky-high price of 5.6 million yuan, with a unit price of more than 460,000 yuan per square meter......
One after another, the myth of school district housing is starkly occurring in the alleys of Beijing.
But if you are told that the housing of a top cow primary school in Beijing has fallen by nearly 5% in three years, can you stand it?
Down 4.6 million ...... in 3 years
Seeing the hummingbird community with Haidian's top cattle school, Zhongguancun No. 3 Primary School, falling below 6 million, and the housing price almost halved, it can't help but make a group of people who watch the drama think: Is the housing in the Beijing school district about to fail.
For the hummingbird community's housing price halving, to put it bluntly, it is still a matter of adjustment. In the past, as long as you bought a hummingbird, you would definitely be able to get it, but now you may not be able to buy it, and the price is inevitable.
On the other hand, in the Haidian School District, where the third secondary school is located, the entrance to junior high school is actually not good, because many parents get their children to the third secondary school, and they are all running for the top six elementary schools. But you understand that not everyone can enter the top six schools, in case you don't enter, what awaits you is the lottery number in the district to go to the pit school, and it won't be the end.
So if you say that because the hummingbird has fallen, the Beijing school district house will not work, it is too nonsense.
So what is the situation of some of Beijing's top school district houses now?
Split apart.
On the one hand, the old broken elementary school district fell more badly. Located in the double flagpole Dongli Tower and No. 24 Huangsi Street in Desheng School District, they are located together with Wulutong Primary School, which is 29 years old.
Among them, the 67-square-meter two-bedroom building of the double-flagpole Dongli Tower has recently been sold at a price of 118,000 yuan/square meter, compared with the price of 146,000 yuan/square meter in 21-23 years, a decrease of 19.18%.
On the whole, the relative environment of the two communities is still good, especially the courtyard of No. 24 Huangsi Street, but with the double flagpole Dongli tower has been smashed to 118,000 / square, guess how long the courtyard of No. 24 Huangsi Street can be strong.
Debao New Park in the Exhibition Road School District, the age of the house is 28 years, and the price in 24 years has fallen by as much as 30% compared with the price in the period of 21-23 years: a one-bedroom house of 41 square meters can be sold for 140,000 yuan per square meter before last year, and it can only be sold for 98,000 yuan per square meter this year, which is 7.55% lower than the transaction price of 106,000 yuan per square meter three or even four years ago.
At that time, I bought this place, which was nothing more than to protect my Xicheng student status. After all, there doesn't seem to be a better option to buy a student status in that location.
On the other hand, after rolling the school district room, Beijing actually began to roll up the quality.
The two-bedroom apartment with a construction area of about 76 square meters on Jiaodaokou East Street in Anjiao School District has a recent transaction price of about 150,000 yuan/square meter, an increase of 9.49% compared with the unit price of 137,000 yuan/square meter last year;
The well-known Zijin Chang'an not only satisfies the wishes of the strong chicken baby, but also enjoys a good quality of living, so that it does not fall but rises in this round of contrarianism.
For example, its 160-square-meter three-bedroom unit has recently been traded at about 140,000 yuan/square meter, an increase of 10.24% compared with the unit price of 127,000 yuan/square meter at the previous high.
As the school district premium partially shifted to the stage of quality premium, some new houses that took into account both school districts and quality began to rise against the trend.
Of course, there is one more thing you need to note: direct admission to school may be a highlight of the future school district housing.
In the future, the possibility of matching enrollment will become greater and greater, so as long as you can enter the matching school, then you will have a ticket to enter a high-quality middle school.
You see the price of the water Huacheng in the Longti School District this time, the 66-square-meter apartment has recently risen to 121,000 yuan/square meter, and last year it was only 116,000 yuan/square meter;
In addition, the direct rise of Yongkang Hutong, a two-bedroom apartment of 67 square meters, the transaction price is as high as 130,000 yuan per square meter, an increase of 2.36% compared with last year.
It can be seen that some parents' pursuit of direct promotion and peace of mind has begun to be reflected.
Housing prices in the Beijing school district will not collapse, but the impact will not be small.
First of all, the consumer group of school district housing is shrinking.
You think back to the several stages of the skyrocketing housing prices in the Beijing school district: the more recent 2013-2014 and 2022-2023 nodes.
Push forward by 6 years, in 2007, the number of births in Beijing was 77,000, and in 2008, it was also the peak of births, exceeding 80,000. Then corresponding to 2013 and 2014, the housing in the Beijing school district began to be reformed, and the price of school district housing also skyrocketed frequently;
You see, in March 2013, Huaqing Jiayuan in Haidian District, a house with a construction area of about 37 square meters, the price shouted 3.5 million, approaching 100,000 per square meter, so it also had the title of "Center of the Universe".
In 2017, the number of newborn births reached a staggering 170,000, and it is foreseeable that there will be a serious shortage of places in 2023. So much so that in the 2020-2022 round of market conditions, school district housing has risen again.
In other words, each round of skyrocketing is inseparable from the support of the newborn population.
But with the population falling from 140,000 in 2018 to 100,000 in 2020, the decline in population no longer necessitates as many degrees from previous years.
In the future, the situation of oversupply will have a greater impact on the difference and slag, and the impact on those top cattle will not be great. The situation of school district housing division will also become more and more divided.
Secondly, the competition between Beijing's top cattle and small schools continues to expand. As you know, before 2003, there was no concept of school district housing in Beijing, and Zhongguancun was famous at that time.
But then Beijing followed up with five university districts and even eight university districts, and one after another top school districts began to emerge. We are familiar with Wanliu and Shangdi, not many people knew about it before, but by 2014, the price was already on par with Zhongguancun.
There are also Desheng School District, etc., which also sat in the top school district around 2014.
Since there are those who rise up on a rocket, there are naturally those who fall. The previous famous schools in Haidian, such as the 19th Middle School, were once on a par with the National People's Congress, and the North Honeycomb School District, etc., have declined.
That is, not only are there more competing school districts, but there are also more high-quality ones, which have some impact on the diversion of some of the top school districts.
Finally, I think the school district housing cycle is almost over.
The starting point of housing in the Beijing school district may be from the 1995-2000 college students who studied in Beijing, the generation of exams, and the two groups of people who enjoyed the unit room.
You think, when they have a house, until they get married, have a baby, and go to school, that is 8-15 years. And it is the precipitation of this group of people that slowly creates the highlight moment of the school district room.
That is to say, from 2008 to 2010, the tuyere of school district housing has come. You can clearly feel that after 2010, the price increase of housing in the Beijing school district is much higher than that of ordinary houses.
If before 2018 was the boom period of school district housing, then after 2018 is the decline period. The emergence of policies such as multi-school zoning and teacher rotation also means that the trend of educational equity is obvious.
In fact, this trend coincides with the behavior of current education policy. In fact, no matter which industry, the policy follows the trend, and the same is true for school district housing.
If you want to think about it, the high-quality educational resources of the Beijing school district are not shared by all Beijing taxpayers, so this kind of educational resources must not be shared.
And with the development of society, it is an established fact that academic qualifications are relatively becoming more and more watery. You can't compare your current academic qualifications with those of the previous generation, and at the same time, parents' attitudes are changing, and academic qualifications are no longer a top priority. Therefore, the golden period of school district housing is slowly coming to an end.
The school district is starting to take off the mask of investment.
In fact, in addition to Beijing's top school district housing, there is still some investment value, and the school district housing in other cities is deprived of financial attributes to varying degrees.
Zhujiatan Community, located in Pudong, Shanghai, had a housing price of more than 150,000 yuan per square meter in 2021, but now even the listing price has dropped to between 70,000 and 90,000 yuan per square meter.
In March 2021, a set of 58.66 square meters was sold, with a total transaction price of 7.46 million yuan, and the unit price was as high as 127,000 yuan per square meter, but now, the transaction price of Wending Yuan is hovering between 6-65,000 yuan, which is directly halved compared with 2 years ago.
There is also a school district house of the famous school in the main city of Nanjing-Shatang Garden, which is the school district house of the primary school attached to the South Normal School. At the end of 2020, the total price of a house with a construction area of about 37 square meters was about 3 million, and the transaction price was about 82,000 yuan per square meter, while a house of the same area that was traded in mid-March fell to 1.25 million.
In 3 years, it has dropped by 1.75 million, and even this kind of famous school can't hold on, you say it's miserable.
I have to admit that whether it is the first line or the new first line, the school district housing premium is detached.
Since then, the nature of school district housing itself has begun to shift to the nature of consumer goods.
After the exorbitant price is eliminated, families with different levels of income can invest a certain amount of money in education according to their own strength, just as they need to buy different sizes of clothes as their bodies change.
With the continuous expansion of the value concept of educational equity, the matching between people and educational resources will be connected, rather than like a mountain on every parent.
So, the school district house is not going away, it's just not so conspicuous.
In fact, in the final analysis, the school district room is essentially a matter of the rules of the game. For example, in Beijing's previous school policy, buying a school district house in Haidian can also divide a good junior high school and a good high school at the same time.
The rules of the game are naturally so that parents are willing to squeeze into it desperately. So you see that the current policies on education are all in the direction of maximizing equity.
Another point that cannot be ignored is the issue of values: life cannot be lost at the starting line, I know that my children's talent is not so high, I just want to give my children a good educational environment, this is wrong, children's education growth time is irreversible, once missed, it will be gone, etc.
Various psychological factors are prompting every parent to pursue the school district housing, so that a commodity that is bound by the price due to various factors, and the "blessing" of different parents' values, fuels their own high housing prices.
Maybe one day, after reducing anxiety, and relying on a relatively fair environment, you can have a better society.