In late March, the Netherlands, Europe's trade and technology powerhouse, suddenly began signaling to Beijing that it wanted to stabilize the declining Sino-Dutch relationship. Without any prior warning, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte made a lightning visit to Beijing.
The Dutch prime minister's visit to Beijing is just the beginning of the intensive diplomacy of the core European countries towards China this year. Prior to his visit to China, Rutte visited Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In view of the fact that both countries have the closest trade relations and technical cooperation with China, it cannot be ruled out that the heads of government of the two countries will have close communication and coordination on the new foreign policy towards China.
On March 27, 2024, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte visited China
Following Rutte, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Beijing in mid-April, followed by French President Emmanuel Macron, and this year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France. Italian Prime Minister Meloni's trip to China is also being planned.
The Netherlands, Germany, France, and Italy are the core members of the EU, and their China policies have a strong bellwether significance for the rest of the EU. The surprisingly unanimous pace of the four heads of government turning their attention to Beijing almost simultaneously is undoubtedly a powerful signal for the ebb-stricken Sino-European relations: European member states have a strong will to stabilize Sino-European relations.
This is in stark contrast to the European Commission's emphasis on "de-risking" in its dealings with China. The attitudes of the Netherlands, Germany, France, and Italy toward China show that there is no consensus between the leadership of the European Commission and the core EU member states on how to handle relations with China, and even if the current European Commission launches a series of policies or proposals that are unfavorable to China in the few days, they may not be able to be implemented in the member states.
The Netherlands took the lead
The Netherlands, Germany, France, and Italy each have a difficult book to read in their relations with China. The Netherlands is a leader in the manufacture of chip lithography machines. The Dutch company ASML has a monopoly on the global supply of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, and Chinese companies are one of the largest global customer groups in the Netherlands, with orders from Chinese mainland reaching 26% of its global market performance in 2023, slightly inferior to Taiwan, China, but far more than South Korea.
This would have been a good thing, but the U.S. government imposed a comprehensive embargo on chips and chip production technology on China, forcing the Dutch government to restrict ASML from supplying lithography machines to Chinese companies from 2024. This has not only caused a backlash from Chinese companies and governments, but also caused dissatisfaction with ASML.
Dutch lithography giant ASML
A few days ago, ASML's management even said that if the business environment in the Netherlands gets worse and worse, the company will have to consider moving its headquarters and production base to other countries or regions. Although ASML did not mention the pressure from the United States, nor did it complain that the decline in the Chinese market was the reason why they considered "leaving", but said that they were worried that the tight immigration policy in the Netherlands and the rise to power of right-wing forces could have a negative impact on the company's ability to win global talent. But discerning people can see at a glance where ASML's real pain point is – that is, the Dutch government cannot protect it from the long-arm jurisdiction of the United States.
Sandwiched between China and the United States, the Dutch government has little room for mediation. Especially in the situation where the United States' suppression of China's chip manufacturing industry is almost hysterical, it is difficult for the Rutte government to overcome the thigh of the United States.
This is not only because the security of the Netherlands is subject to the United States, but also because ASML's lithography machine itself uses many technologies and services from the United States, and the risk of not succumbing to the pressure of the United States will be very large, so large that it may lead to the United States taking a salary from the bottom of the kettle and directly including ASML in the scope of sanctions.
Therefore, Rutte's trip to China should have come to Beijing to seek understanding. In fact, the Dutch prime minister seemed to pull out all the stops to explain that the embargo on lithography machines was not intended to be an enemy of China, but was motivated by "national security" considerations.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte
Rutte's concept of "national security" is very vague, and from the context, it does not mean that China will do things that harm the security of the Netherlands after obtaining ASML's advanced lithography machine, but that if it does not listen to the United States, it may directly cause harm to the security of the Netherlands. Resisting Washington's "will" will not only cause distrust in the security umbrella United States, but also hang the future of ASML by a thread. This is a sober but interesting realization, that is, when the United States goes around suppressing Chinese companies on the grounds of "national security" and asking allies to join in the crackdown, it is clear to almost everyone except the United States that the real threat to "national security" is actually the United States itself.
Beijing's strategists will not fail to understand the difficulties of the Dutch government. If retaliation against the Dutch government's embargo on lithography machines is likely to backfire, not only will it not stop the chip technology cooperation between the United States and the Netherlands, but it may also completely push the Netherlands into the arms of the United States, just falling into a deeper trap.
Beijing has always been rational. Although the Dutch government's restrictions on the export of lithography machines to China have cast a shadow on China-Netherlands relations, President Xi Jinping still sincerely said when meeting with Rutte, "China-Netherlands relations have developed steadily and rapidly, and the cooperation between the two countries in various fields has continued to deepen, and the Netherlands has become a veritable gateway for China-EU cooperation." "China is ready to maintain exchanges with the Netherlands at all levels, adhere to communication and dialogue, adhere to mutual benefit and win-win results, and promote the continuous development of the open and pragmatic comprehensive cooperative partnership between China and the Netherlands", the leader's attitude fully demonstrates the strategic vision of China's diplomacy.
ASML booth at the 6th China International Import Expo in Shanghai
Of course, China will not give up its principled position, and globalization, openness and cooperation, and interdependence between countries are the general trend of history. President Xi Jinping clearly and forcefully told Rutte that "economic globalization may encounter headwinds, but the general trend of history will not change, there is no way out of 'decoupling and breaking the chain', and openness and cooperation are the only choice." China has always maintained that the binary thinking of "you lose" and "black and white" is outdated, and that a truly secure world should be one that is deeply intertwined and interdependent. Artificially creating technological barriers and fragmenting industrial and supply chains will only lead to division and confrontation. ”
In response, Rutte said, "'Decoupling and breaking the chain' is not a policy option for the Dutch government, because any action that harms China's development interests will also hurt itself." This should be a felt, ASML lost or about to lose the Chinese market, has verified the Dutch distress.
"The Netherlands cherishes its friendly relations with China and is willing to continue to deepen its partnership with China, facilitate people-to-people exchanges, strengthen cooperation in economic and trade and carbon emission reduction, and strengthen communication and coordination on multilateral occasions such as the G20 and international and regional hotspot issues," he said. ”
Germany and France are on the same page
It should be said that Rutte's sober attitude is in line with the common interests of both China and the Netherlands. Both China and Europe should consciously avoid falling into the trap set by the United States to drive a wedge between China and Europe, a position that has clearly resonated in bilateral interactions with the Netherlands.
The next German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Meloni will also feel the goodwill of the Chinese government for China-EU relations. In fact, the impulse of Europeans to get rid of their dependence on Americans is no less than the Chinese's expectations for Europe's strategic autonomy, but it is difficult to achieve it overnight. In this regard, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Italy have shown a rare alignment.
In contrast to the United Kingdom, which has followed suit with the United States, Germany has so far resisted pressure from the United States to remove Huawei equipment from its telecommunications infrastructure. On this issue, the Prime Minister's Office has shown strong resilience. Against the backdrop of US pressure, China-suspicious forces within the ruling coalition and the opposition Yuanhua faction, Chancellor Scholz has always been unwilling to let go and has been delaying again and again.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Let the companies make their own decisions, rather than the government forcing them to make decisions, which is the basic attitude of the Scholz government. This basic attitude reflects respect for corporate interests and judgment, reflects the antipathy of the United States using state power to block corporate cooperation, and reflects that the German government does not believe in the "Huawei threat theory" invented by Washington.
With Scholz's way of being and doing things, it is unlikely that he will be "ruthless" against Huawei. This trip to China in April is something he has been looking forward to for a long time, and he will lead a large number of heavyweight entrepreneurs to accompany him. If nothing else, Germany's position on Huawei will not change until the end of next year's government term.
It is no coincidence that Germany and France have strengthened their relations with China one after another. This is a gesture that Germany and France have jointly presented to the European Commission and all EU member states: "We are very attentive to the development of cooperation with China, and we Germans and French do not have any differences on this issue." ”
As a matter of fact, although there are no differences in principle between Germany and France in developing relations with China, there are differences in speed and heat. After the end of Merkel's administration, the main impetus for the development of European relations with China shifted from Berlin to Paris. Macron's respect for China's core interests, especially the unambiguity on Taiwan, is much firmer than that of the Scholz government.
The strategic mutual trust between China and France is higher than that between China and Germany. Macron's "European strategic autonomy" is admired by Beijing, which wants to see a strong Europe independent of the United States, and this strategic expectation is also perceived by the French and resonates with Paris.
French President Emmanuel Macron
There are not many unpleasant things between China and France, and there are not too many troubles on both sides.
The Élysée Palace even revealed that Macron could visit Beijing again later this year to fulfill his promise in 2018 to visit China once a year.
The performance of France and Germany shows that, at least on the European continent, the core countries have never weakened their expectations for sincere development of cooperation with China, and "de-risking" is only the so-called hardliners following the trend of the United States.
Italy's "Practical Diplomacy"
Italy has also joined the Netherlands, Germany and France in stabilizing relations with China. At the end of last year, the Italian government decided to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative under pressure from the United States, but it has not relaxed its substantive cooperation with China. It seems that the withdrawal from the "Belt and Road" is mainly for the Americans, to give the "boss" a face, but also to demonstrate the "harmony" of the G7.
Interestingly, Italy's right-wing government, under the leadership of Prime Minister Meloni, has not renewed its 2018 memorandum of understanding with Beijing on the Belt and Road Initiative, but has still insisted on stepping up efforts to develop the China-Italy comprehensive strategic partnership with China, which began in 2004.
Speaking in Hong Kong before attending the performance of the famous La Scala Ballet in Milan at the Tsim Sha Tsui Cultural Center, Italian Ambassador to China Ambos said that Rome and Beijing have been negotiating a three-year action plan to be signed when the leaders of the two countries meet.
Italian Ambassador to China Ambose / Source: Phoenix.com
As expected, the launch of this new China-Italy action plan will be the highlight of Meloni's first visit to China after becoming prime minister.
In particular, the manufacture of electric vehicles has been identified by the Italian government as a top priority for the full resumption of cooperation between China and Italy. According to public information, the Italian government has extended an olive branch to Chinese automakers BYD and Chery, inviting them to build factories in Italy.
It has been rare for many years that the core countries of Europe have interacted closely with China in such a concerted manner. The "de-risking" advocated by the European Commission has not been endorsed by most European leaders in its bones.
On the contrary, treating China as a "risk" and "departing" it may bring greater risks to Europe, and this judgment seems to be beginning to be accepted by more and more people in European officialdom and public opinion circles. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Italian Prime Minister Meloni's "unified action" in relations with China could not have been clearer in verifying this observation.
Some of the illustrations in the article are from Visual China
Author | Gu Xuewu
Edit | Ah Shu
Typography | Get up