In terms of the metal market:
As of the close of trading at noon, the base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. The main Shanghai copper contract rose 1.07% to 76,220 yuan/ton, and the highest intraday rose to 76,850 yuan/ton, hitting a high since May 2021. Shanghai nickel rose 0.52%, Shanghai zinc rose 0.69%, Shanghai tin rose 1.38%, and Shanghai lead fell slightly. Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.41%. The main alumina futures fell 0.36%. In addition, the main industrial silicon contract rose 1.49%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 0.53%.
The black series was mixed, iron ore rose 4.6%, thread and hot coil rose 1.65% and 1.43% respectively, and stainless steel rose slightly. In terms of double coke, coking coal rose 1.85% and coke rose 1.35%.
In terms of external metals, as of 11:38, LME metals fell recently. London copper, London aluminum, London lead and London nickel all fell, and the decline was within 1%, and London zinc rose 0.55%. Lunxi rose 2.66%.
In terms of precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.51%; COMEX silver rose 0.51%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of the midday close, Shanghai gold rose 0.76%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.53%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on April 8 stating that in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures", starting from the close of liquidation on April 9, 2024 (Tuesday), the margin ratio of Ag (T D) contracts will be adjusted from 10% to 12%, and the limit on the rise and fall of the next trading day will be adjusted from 9% to 11%. India's silver imports surged 260% to a record high in February as lower tariffs incentivized purchases from the UAE.
In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 1987 points, up 2.32%.
As of 11:38 on April 9, some futures at noon:
Spot & Fundamentals
Copper: Today's North China electrolytic copper spot on the current month contract discount 350 yuan/ton ~ 210 yuan/ton, the average price of 280 yuan/ton from the previous trading day down 20 yuan/ton, the transaction price of 75450-75890 yuan/ton, the average price of 75670 yuan/ton from the previous trading day up 480 yuan/ton. Copper prices continued to rise, and end consumption was suppressed and the performance was dismal......
Lead: Today's average price of SMM1# lead fell by 25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM recycled refined lead partially followed. The mainstream price of SMM1# lead is discounted by 170-150 yuan/ton......
Macroscopic
Domestic:
Premier Li Qiang of the State Council presided over a forum of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation on the afternoon of April 8 to listen to opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next step of economic work. Li Qiang emphasized that it is necessary to continue to consolidate the foundation, stimulate the vitality of the main body of business, and enhance the endogenous driving force for development. It is necessary to strengthen the combination effect and enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. It is necessary to pay attention to precise policy implementation and improve the effectiveness of macro policy transmission to micro level. It is necessary to resolutely adhere to the bottom line and resolve risks in key areas.
On April 8, the provident fund management centers in Beijing, Suzhou, Guangzhou, and Shenyang issued new policies. It is worth noting that Beijing and Guangzhou are aiming at green buildings for preferential treatment, previously, the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong has repeatedly emphasized the need to "make efforts to build good houses", industry experts said that such new policies are to encourage buyers to buy green, low-carbon, intelligent and safe good houses, and will also help promote more development enterprises to build high-quality housing. In addition, according to incomplete statistics, since April, many places have optimized and adjusted the housing provident fund loan policy, including Guangzhou, Ordos, Weifang, Xiangtan and other places have increased the amount of provident fund loans, and Wuxi, Zhengzhou and Changshu have issued "old for new" related policies. Experts told the Financial Associated Press reporter that summarizing the housing purchase policies in various places in the second quarter of this year, the trade-in, the cancellation of the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate, and the provident fund policy belong to the three policies with high frequency in various places, further releasing easing signals.
On April 9, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.0956 yuan per US dollar per dollar
On the US dollar:
As of 11:38, the U.S. dollar index was at 104.17, up 0.04%. Markets await the Fed's policy meeting minutes and key inflation data to understand the timing and depth of rate cuts. U.S. CPI data and the minutes of the Fed's March policy meeting will be released on Wednesday, which may help judge the timing of the Fed's rate cuts. A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday showed mixed expectations for the inflation outlook last month, with them expecting greater price increases for a range of key goods and services, while fears of not being able to repay their debts are rising. Futures traders' bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year have fallen to their lowest level since October amid evidence of continued strength in the U.S. economy, data showed on Monday. The U.S. interest rate futures market has priced in a 49% probability of a rate cut in June from 58% a week ago, up from 58% a week ago, ahead of the CPI data and after Friday's strong jobs report, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
In terms of other currencies:
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that negative interest rates are not needed for the time being. The price trend is still below 2%, and it is crucial to support the economy through monetary policy, and the speed of adjusting interest rates depends on the economic situation. The baseline scenario is that trend inflation tends to 2% over the next 1.5 to 2 years, and the probability of inflation being significantly lower than the baseline forecast is quite low.
Macro aspects:
Treasury Secretary Lan Foan and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held talks in Beijing on the evening of 7 April and exchanged views on issues such as the macroeconomic situation between China and the United States, bilateral economic relations, and cooperation in addressing global challenges. Vice Secretary of the Treasury Liao Min briefed the media on US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China and answered questions from the media. Liao Min said that China and the United States have reached a new consensus outcome. First, the Ministries of Finance of the two countries will take the lead in exchanging views on the balanced growth of the two countries and the global economy under the framework of the China-US Economic Working Group. Second, led by the People's Bank of China and the U.S. Department of the Treasury, continuous exchanges on financial stability, sustainable finance, anti-money laundering and other issues under the framework of the Financial Working Group have been carried out.
On the macro front, France's trade balance for February will be released today.
Crude oil: Crude oil futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as of 11:38, U.S. oil rose 0.25%, and cloth oil rose 0.31%. Hopes for easing tensions in the Middle East have waned. ANZ analysts said in a client note that the market is still weighing the risk of oil supply disruptions.
At the same time, ANZ analysts said that fundamentals supported oil prices. India's fuel demand in FY2024 hit a record high, driven by higher consumption of petrol and jet fuel, data released on Monday showed. Improved manufacturing activity in China is expected to boost fuel demand. Mexico's national energy company Pemex plans to cut crude exports by at least 330,000 b/d in May, which would cut crude supplies to customers in the United States, Europe and Asia by a third, market sources said.