Northeast soybean producing areas in the case of continuous acquisition of enterprises, the source of beans has been reasonably decomposed, its market has been significantly supported, the acquisition of enterprises for different types of bean prices pointed out the direction, after the release of pressure in the production area, more bean farmers have a bullish desire, and spring ploughing is imminent, the terminal consumption gradually enters the normalized off-season, the market quotation of traders is difficult to support, and the phenomenon of "large households do not sell small households sell" in the production area, so that the market that seems to stabilize on the surface is still weakening.
After continuous downward adjustment, the quotation of the main body of the acquisition in some producing areas has shown a price advantage compared with the similar bean quality in Northeast China, but in view of the light conversion, the amount of outgoing beans is still small. The price of beans in the producing areas has been sharply adjusted downward in the short term, further intensifying the wait-and-see of the terminal market. With the continuous decline in the price of high-quality commodity beans, the purchase price of the so-called "secondary beans" in various places has entered a low point, and some protein companies have started to buy, and the entry price is significantly lower than that of Northeast beans.
The National Grain Trading Center will conduct an auction of imported soybeans at 13:30 on April 9, with a planned auction of 506,000 tons, with a production period of 2021 and 2022, and the targets are distributed in Shandong, Hebei, Tianjin, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and other places.
Northeast outbound sluggish transportation rates lowered
The pressure on bean sources in the northeast producing areas has been fully alleviated, enterprises continue to purchase and the price is stable, traders will meet the quality of the enterprise to purchase the bean sources after selling, will be suitable for food processing bean sources to classify, and with the passage of time, large and small households have a certain amount of positions; some farmers in the face of the activity in the production area, show high prices and reluctant to sell, so that traders' enthusiasm for buying weakened. Approaching spring ploughing, there will be a wave of concentrated sales of surplus grain at the grassroots level in the near future, due to the different quotations, the status quo of "you don't sell him sells" saturates the weaker demand side. Before spring ploughing, this wave of "small peaks" in the traders' "unwilling" state of price increases, may make some soybean farmers to further reluctant to sell, a certain amount of bean source after moving to the end of spring planting and spring management before selling, the market outlook is optimistic or will be greatly discounted.
The amount of soybeans in the northeast producing areas has been decreasing, in addition to the stable purchase of enterprises, the market support is obviously lacking, and there will be a two-way auction this week in the grain reserves, because the same amount of old beans will flow into the market, which has basically no impact on the market. Protein companies and food processing markets have begun to purchase soybeans in some areas of the Guannai, and the circulation of soybeans in Northeast China will be increasingly suppressed. Last week, the Harbin Railway Bureau lowered the freight rate again to stimulate the market to carry by rail, but the land and water freight rates were also significantly reduced, which is enough to reflect the weakness of the logistics market and the cold market demand.
In the Northeast producing areas, except for some high-protein varieties of grass-roots wool grain purchase price slightly increased by 40~60 yuan/ton, other soybean sources are stable and weak, affected by the decrease in outsource, traders have increased their positions to varying degrees in the early stage. Last year, there were more new acquisitions in the northeast producing areas, and although these traders had few market customers, the diversion of beans accounted for a certain proportion. At the same time, when such entities issue quotations, they are always slightly lower than those of "time-honored brands", so that the reality of "large households do not sell and small households sell" exists, which makes the phenomenon of terminal market operators "buying a car and inquiring for multiple prices" continues, and finally completes the supply with the choice of "low or high".
The eastern soybean source in the northeast producing area of Heilongjiang has both the quality and price advantages in the early stage of the market, and the balance is obviously low, and the current price and transportation conditions of traders do not have the advantage, and the circulation has been weakening since the beginning of March after the price reduction in the central and western regions and Inner Mongolia. At the end of last week, the mainstream loading price of 39.5%~40.5% protein content of Taxuan commodity beans in Northeast China was 4700~4800 yuan/ton, the loading price of 41%~42% protein content was 4840~4900 yuan/ton, the mainstream loading price of 42.5%~43% protein content was 4940~5100 yuan/ton, and the loading price of high-grade beans with more than 43.5% protein content was 5200~5360 yuan/ton.
At present, the enthusiasm of traders in the Northeast producing areas has decreased, and the transformation of bean sources is dominated by purchasing and storage enterprises, so that the "internal transfer" has brought more variables to the future market, and the price advantage of the bean market in Guannai has been highlighted, which has greatly reduced the consumption of beans in Northeast China. The soybean farmers are reluctant to sell the cycle of elongation, and will be intertwined with the remaining bean seeds after sowing at the end of May and June, with the increasingly thin situation in the downstream market, the Northeast bean market is not optimistic. The performance of the futures bean one-month contract is strong, and the future divergence of futures and spot cannot be ruled out. The quality and price advantage of the Northeast bean market has been replaced by the Guannei, and the circulation of bean sources has been blocked.
Regional competition to adjust the advantages of the customs are highlighted
Since late March, the soybean purchase market in various producing areas in the customs has risen one after another, and the inter-regional purchasing entities have communicated with each other to reduce the purchase price in order to avoid risks, while most of the grassroots soybean farmers have adjusted their reluctance to sell in the face of the declining trend. At present, the market of "mixed flower beans" in various producing areas seems to have fallen to a trough, and the price of flowing into the terminal has been significantly lower than that of Northeast beans, but with the passage of time, the Yangtze River basin is only about 40 days away from the summer harvest, and Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong are 50~60 days away from the summer harvest. In the early stage, the market share was occupied by Northeast beans, and the pressure on the source of beans was concentrated and moved back, and the terminal demand was about to enter the off-season, and many small and medium-sized merchants in many regions could not keep up with the pace of adjustment, and the loss of inventory supply intensified, so they chose to abandon the harvest;
At present, some regional grassroots beans together with the inventory of the acquisition outlets, accounting for about 70% of the total output of the bean source is stranded in the production area, and its pressure has intensified so that the purchase subject continued to pressure the price last week. Affected by it, the adjacent Bozhou City Qiaocheng District, Wuyang, Lixin also followed, last weekend ordinary screening grain mainstream loading quotation has reached 4760 ~ 4800 yuan / ton, double gravity screening grain loading price 4800 ~ 4900 yuan / ton, some large quotation 4960 ~ 5000 yuan / ton. Huaibei double gravity screening grain 5000~5100 yuan/ton, circulation is priceless and marketable. Suzhou City, Yongqiao District, Lingbi mainstream loading price of 4800 ~ 4900 yuan / ton, Si County "Yundou No. 1" protein content slightly higher support market, but the external impact strengthened, last weekend commodity bean mainstream loading price of 5000 ~ 5040 yuan / ton, Bengbu City Wuhe net grain purchase price of 4700 ~ 4760 yuan ton, loading price 4800 ~ 4860 yuan / ton. The profit margin of the acquirer has expanded significantly, but the liquidity is not much.
The decline in Anhui directly affects Jiangsu, Henan, and Shandong producing areas, so that it has to follow the downward adjustment, and the mainstream price of high-grade commodity beans is 4960~5100 yuan/ton, compared with Anhui production areas, the rhythm is still "slow and half a beat", so that the circulation is slow. At present, the purchase price of "secondary beans" gross grain with a slight "mud flower" or sensory deviation is 4000~4200 yuan/ton, and many buyers give up the purchase, and the recent purchase of this kind of bean source should strictly control the "red-eyed bean". The current price has entered the sight of protein companies, and some companies have begun to purchase, this kind of bean source price support main body "appeared", which will gradually change the excessive panic of buyers in the production area, and will also inhibit the rapid decline of high-grade bean sources. During the week, there is still a phenomenon of leveling between high and low in various production areas.
According to the spot market in the above-mentioned producing areas, the price of food enterprises entering Jiangsu, gradually and Shanghai is used as a reference, and the price of bean sources in most areas of Anhui is only 5000~5160 yuan/ton, which has obvious price difference advantages compared with similar bean sources in Northeast China. Therefore, the current price stability of soybeans in Northeast China will "make way" for the release of soybeans in the Kannai.
However, the main body of bean holders in the bean area of the Yangtze River basin has been unable to avoid risks, and many hoarders have been magnifying their losses due to the impact of the above-mentioned bean areas. The local cash subject has also sharply lowered the purchase price, so that the gambling market subject "crazy sale", the price of Anqing area in southern Anhui has been chaotic, and the loading price of 4700~4800 yuan/ton is still released slowly. In Shishou, Gong'an, Jianli in the Yangtze River Basin of Hubei Province and Tianmen, Zhongxiang, Shayang, Jingshan, Hanchuan and other places in the Jianghan Plain, the price difference between the early inventory beans and the current beans was 800~900 yuan/ton, and the early hoarding of goods suffered heavy losses; there were obvious differences in the loading price of "mixed flower beans" between regions, but the mainstream price was mostly between 5600~5700 yuan/ton.
Jiangsu's "big milky white" and "black navel king" have not fallen significantly, but the price has been loosened, and the mainstream loading price is between 6300~6440 yuan/ton, while Hubei's "precocious 537" loading price has fallen from 7100~7200 yuan/ton in the early stage of the listing to the current 7000~7040 yuan/ton, the decline is not large, and the loading price of "Jidou 12" double-specific gravity sieved grain has entered between 6100~6200 yuan/ton last weekend. As the summer harvest approaches, there are still some entities at the grassroots level that hold a certain amount of bean sources, but due to poor shipments, it is not ruled out that there will be a slight downward adjustment in the near future.
The off-season is gradually coming, and the bean market is bearish
After the Qingming Festival, the temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has risen significantly, all kinds of wild vegetables, conventional vegetables and shed vegetables have been listed, the supply of meat, eggs and poultry has been sufficient, and the price is low, the selection of residents and various canteen ingredients has expanded, and the shelf life of fresh soy products has been shortened after the temperature has gradually increased, and the normalized off-season of soybean product consumption is approaching, and the domestic soybean market is gradually amplified.
The demand for domestic soybeans has narrowed, all kinds of imported soybeans have also been frustrated, and the distribution price of soybeans in the United States Gulf is no longer strong, after a wave of 200 yuan/ton rise, the market has replaced the domestic soybean price in the process of lowering the price, and more subjects have given up the use. At the end of last week, there was a pullback in the quotations of all ports, and the circulation was small. Shandong, Henan and Anhui dealers net grain loading price 4540 ~ 4600 yuan / ton, terminal acceptance significantly weakened. The price of soybeans in Russia has always been "stepping on" the price of beans in the northeast, but the advantage of the price of beans in the customs makes it inferior, and the circulation to the soybean product market and protein enterprises has been significantly reduced.
With the continuous increase of soybean meal and the decline in prices, the production capacity of crushing enterprises has declined in an all-round way, and from late April to June, the arrival of domestic imported soybeans will gradually increase, with an average monthly import volume of more than one million tons. In the state of low domestic soybean prices, substitution and reduction has been a general trend, but the weak demand environment still does not support the upward trend of domestic bean prices, and the future market in the north and south producing areas will still maintain a weakening operation pattern. (This article was originally published in the A03 issue of Grain and Oil Market News on April 9, 2024)
Source丨Grain and oil market newspaper
General Duty丨Liu Xinhuan Editor丨Congshen
