To prevent getting lost, the elevator goes directly to the safety island to report Liu Yadong A
(ID:kanghedao)
Authors: Bao Gangsheng (dictated), Sun Xuan, Wei Lan (editorial)
After nine months, 77-year-old U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has returned to China for her second visit to China.
According to public reports, Yellen's trip lasted six days, from April 4 to 9, 2024, and the itinerary was very tight.
Against the backdrop of uncertain global economic prospects and complex and volatile Sino-US relations, Yellen's visit to China can be said to be the biggest hot spot at the moment. We have sorted out the core highlights of Yellen's important meetings and speeches during her visit to China to help us understand the further direction and future changes of China-US relations.
On the afternoon of April 4, Yellen flew to Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, and the first meal was authentic Cantonese food, that is, the time-honored Tao Taoju.
On the morning of April 5, Yellen held a roundtable discussion with economic experts to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing China's economy. Later, Yellen attended an event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China in Guangzhou, and Yellen clearly opposed the "decoupling" of China and the United States, which Yellen has repeatedly reiterated and emphasized. Yellen also highlighted the issue of "China's production capacity":
Overcapacity (in China) could lead to a large export of low-priced goods. This could cripple the business of U.S. companies and workers, as well as those of companies around the world, including India and Mexico. It could also lead to an over-concentration of supply chains, posing a risk to the resilience of the global economy. This will be a key topic to discuss with peers in the coming days.
According to media statistics, Yellen mentioned "overcapacity" five times in her speech at the event. However, there is controversy in the academic community about this interpretation.
Still, Yellen does focus on China's production capacity. After the itinerary of her visit to China was made public, Yellen publicly emphasized in the US media that she would focus on discussing with China "the impact of overcapacity in China's electric vehicle, photovoltaic and new energy industries on the global economy".
On April 5 and 6, Vice Premier He Lifeng and Yellen held several rounds of talks in Guangzhou. In the Xinhua News Agency article, we noted that the two sides "unanimously agreed" on four major topics, including discussions on balanced economic growth between China and the United States and the global economy, financial stability, sustainable finance, and anti-money laundering cooperation.
As the Chinese leader of China-US economic and trade relations, He Lifeng has held several talks with Yellen. After Yellen's first visit to China as Treasury secretary in July last year, China and the United States agreed to set up an economic working group and a financial working group.
In the past few months, things that can be discussed between China and the United States have begun to become more and more nuanced. In the case of the Economic Working Group, in the third dialogue, particularly specific issues such as the debt of developing countries and industrial policies began to emerge as issues that could be discussed.
On the morning of April 7, Premier Li Qiang met with Yellen at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Li Qiang said that China hopes that China and the United States will be partners rather than adversaries. He pointed out that he hoped that the United States would work with China to adhere to the basic norms of fair competition, openness, and cooperation in the market economy, and not to politicize and securitize economic and trade issues. It is necessary to look at the issue of production capacity objectively and dialectically from the market vision and global vision, starting from the economic law. The development of China's new energy industry will make an important contribution to the global green and low-carbon transition.
In the evening, the U.S. Embassy in China released Yellen's tweet on social media, and reading between the lines, you can read that Yellen believes that the United States and China have made progress in deepening communication during this visit.
Yellen's visit to China this time is seen as a sign of warming "Sino-US relations".
As the world's two largest economies, the interaction between China and the United States has shaped the trend of changes in a century. In China, the focus of public attention is not only on production capacity, but also on many issues such as U.S. bonds.
In this regard, we asked Professor Bao Gangsheng of the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University, who has been studying comparative politics and observing international issues for many years.
Can Yellen Influence China Policy?
Q: Looking at Yellen's resume, we find that Yellen served as the chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018, and some media have called her "the first female head of the Fed in its 100-year history". As US Treasury Secretary, how much power does Yellen have in the United States? Can she influence US policy toward China?
Bao Gangsheng: Actually, understanding China-US relations is not only about diplomacy, but also about domestic affairs. This involves the U.S. political system and the role of key U.S. officials in government.
If you go to the website of the White House, the Secretary of the Treasury ranks fourth in the ranking of the Cabinet of Presidents, behind the President, Vice President and Secretary of State. The role of the vice president has undergone a certain evolution, and the vice president has become more active than before. Still, in the U.S. government's decision-making system, the Secretary of the Treasury can also be seen as the number three person after the president and the secretary of state.
When it comes to the role of the finance minister, it is easy to think of China's finance minister, but this understanding is not so accurate. The mission of the U.S. Treasury Department has three sentences:
First, to maintain a strong economy and create economic and employment opportunities by promoting economic growth and stability at home and abroad;
second, to strengthen national security by countering threats and protecting the integrity of the financial system;
Third, effective management of the U.S. government's finances and related resources.
Often, our understanding of the Minister of Finance is confined to the last one, which is a very narrow understanding.
The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury is first the Secretary of the Treasury in the narrow sense, then the Secretary of Economic Development, the Secretary of Financial Stability, and even the Secretary of Economic Security.
So Yellen's role in China is roughly equivalent to the role of executive vice premier in charge of economic affairs.
Considering that President Biden relies more on the cabinet team and experts to govern the country, it can be said that Yellen is the top economic policy adviser in the Biden administration and the most important cabinet economic decision-making official. Yellen has a considerable say in China policy, especially in the economic and trade sectors.
Yellen's top concerns are four things
Q: Against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty and the complex and volatile relationship between China and the United States, the real purpose of Yellen's visit to China has attracted much attention, and there are many speculations circulating on the Internet, such as whether the United States is pointing out China's overcapacity and whether the United States will cut interest rates. So what is the purpose of Yellen's visit to China?
Bao Gangsheng: Diplomatic activities can be divided into two forms, one is public diplomacy and the other is closed-door conference diplomacy.
Details of closed-door meetings often take a long time to be declassified before they can be made known to the public. However, public diplomacy is relatively transparent, and the U.S. government has a practice of issuing briefings after important talks. These briefings usually include the content of the talks, the concerns of both parties, the outcomes reached, and the unagreed issues. So far, some of the contents of Yellen's visit to China are not very clear.
According to the mission of the U.S. Treasury Department, Yellen's visit to China is definitely to implement the established policy of the Biden administration. So, what are the things that Biden cares about, and what are they related to China?
First, Biden is concerned about the stability of the entire economic and trade relationship. Second, the Biden administration is a Democratic administration, and the U.S. government may take steps to protect its own interests if China's exports or other economic activities affect U.S. jobs and workers. Third, the U.S. government's public debt is quite large, and China is a major creditor of the U.S., so the U.S. government also needs to negotiate and communicate with China on issues related to U.S. fiscal and financial stability. These are all issues that Yellen is likely to be concerned about.
So what is the specific purpose of Yellen's visit to China?
Judging from her speech in Guangzhou, Yellen's visit to China is mainly concerned with four things:
The first concern was Yellen's speech in Guangzhou, which explicitly addressed the issue of the operating environment for U.S. companies in China. These US business executives are representatives of voters in the US business community, and it is very normal for Yellen to care about and safeguard the interests of US companies and investors in China during her visit to China.
The second concern is the impact of Chinese exports on the U.S. economy. In particular, Yellen mentioned that China's overcapacity may lead to an excessive increase in exports, which may have an impact on competition, industrial chains, and employment in related industries in the United States. Of course, this is based on Yellen's perspective.
The third focus is to convey the positive demand for stabilizing the economic cooperation between China and the United States. Yellen made it clear that the Biden administration opposes the decoupling of the U.S.-China economy, which is not the Biden administration's policy.
The fourth focus is to encourage China to continue its market-oriented reforms. She believes that market-oriented reforms are critical to the success of China's economy and that it is important for China to play an active role in the global economy.
In fact, there is an important division of labor, where the secretary of state comes and pays more attention to security and foreign affairs, while the secretary of finance (and economy) pays more attention to economy and trade, import and export, and financial stability. Therefore, understanding the division of responsibilities among senior U.S. government officials helps us better understand the purpose and focus of their visits.
Yellen: China-US economic decoupling is "almost impossible"
Q: It is worth mentioning that during her visit to China, Yellen once again reiterated that economic decoupling between China and the United States is "almost impossible", but on some issues, the United States has a precedent of "not keeping its word", does this mean that there are differences within the United States?
Bao Gangsheng: First of all, we need to realize that the US policy towards China is complex. Generally speaking, the U.S. government plays its cards in many cases, which is determined by its political system and media environment, which involves many key features of U.S. domestic affairs.
Taking the Russia-Ukraine war as an example, Biden has previously made it very clear what the US government will do if Russia takes military action against Ukraine. So far, the United States has basically done just that. This is an important feature of American politics.
Because of the clear playing of cards, coupled with the changes in the internal affairs of the United States and the different views of different parties, we sometimes have a lot of confusion, for example, we will hear that the president, senior White House cabinet officials, and the two major parties in Congress will have different voices in different situations. This makes it more difficult for us to understand the US policy toward China.
When it comes to the current US administration, Biden's China policy is already quite complex. When Biden first took office as president, he made it clear that the U.S. policy toward China can be summed up as the "three Cs policy":
Cooperation: Seek cooperation with China in areas such as economy, trade, and global issues such as climate change;
Competition: Compete with China in high-tech, strategic industries, and the country's economic growth and innovation;
Confrontation: Confrontation with China on issues such as international rules, national security, and human rights.
This is the "complexity of US policy toward China." You will find that the Biden administration's China policy is not simple and singular, but a diverse and complex combination of strategies.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in Guangzhou to meet with Chinese officials and hold a roundtable discussion with economic experts
As for the issue of economic decoupling between China and the United States, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the United States does not seek to decouple from China. This is because the economic, trade, and investment relations between China and the United States are highly interdependent. Under such conditions, the economic decoupling of China and the United States is not in line with the policy direction of the Biden administration.
In fact, unless there are extreme scenarios, such as a war between the two countries, it is unrealistic to completely decouple the Chinese and American economies.
But when economic and trade relations involve what they call "national security," the U.S. government and Congress will target China with restrictions. For example, key technical areas such as chip technology and information security have been the focus of the adjustment of the US economic and technological policy toward China in recent years.
Therefore, in the economic relationship between China and the United States, there are two logics: economic logic and security logic.
If we only consider the economic logic and ignore the security logic, or only focus on the security logic and ignore the economic logic, we will not be able to understand the real state of China-US relations.
From the perspective of the United States, they are also looking for a balance between these two logics, not only to maintain the relative stability of Sino-US economic cooperation, but also to ensure that their so-called "national security" is not threatened. Of course, this is their perspective.
We should realize that this is not only the fundamentals of the current Sino-US economic relations, but also the complexity of Sino-US economic relations.
What signal did Yellen's visit to China send?
Q: Against the backdrop of an election year in the United States and more uncertainties and even negative factors in China-US relations, Yellen's visit to China is seen by the outside world as an important signal that China-US relations are on the road to stabilization and recovery. So have Sino-US relations really warmed up?
Bao Gangsheng: First of all, let's be clear, high-level exchanges between China and the United States are definitely a positive signal. Whether it is a visit to the United States by a Chinese leader or senior government official, or a visit by a senior US president or government official, it is certainly a positive signal that is sent far better than no contact. That's for sure.
However, it should be pointed out that on this issue, there is often an excessive interpretation in the domestic public opinion field. One interpretation in the field of domestic public opinion is that the visit of a senior US official to China and the visit of a senior Chinese official to the United States are two different things, and the visit of a senior US official to China means that the United States needs us more, and then interprets it as "I respect you and am inferior" in Sino-US relations. This is a relatively common mentality in the field of public opinion at present. However, such a mentality is completely unnecessary, and it is likely to be misunderstood, and behind it is actually a reflection of the lack of self-confidence of the "diplomatic glass heart".
As major powers in the world, it is normal for China and the United States to come and go. We should not over-interpret the order of visits by senior officials. For example, if a senior government official of one country visits another country first after a cooling-off or trough in the relationship between the two countries, it does not mean that the latter is in any dominant position in international relations. This interpretation may only satisfy the emotional value of some people, and it may also lead to a misjudgment of the real relationship and situation between the two countries.
On April 6, Yellen was with Vice Premier He Lifeng of the People's Republic of China today
As U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen's role requires her to perform specific duties and missions. To put it bluntly, visiting China is also her job. As a member of the Biden administration's cabinet, she has to do her job and fulfill her responsibilities, some of which can be done within the United States, and some of which needs to be done through communication with China.
For example, Yellen needs to respond to the demands of U.S. companies in China, communicate information with the Chinese government, and even make demands and conduct negotiations, and she also needs to conduct on-the-spot research in China in order to more accurately grasp China's economic and social conditions through personal experience, so as to provide a basis for U.S. economic policy and decision-making on China.
As a key member of the U.S. government, Yellen's priority is to do her job well, not to decide whether to visit China based on any emotional considerations of face or status. This is dictated by the logic of her work as US Secretary of the Treasury. Many interpretations in the domestic public opinion field are generally based on the "face thinking" that Chinese are accustomed to understanding foreign affairs, which is a big misreading.
How should China and the United States get along next?
Q: Prior to Yellen's visit to China, the Chinese and US presidents had a phone call, and during the 105-minute call, President Xi Jinping put forward the "Three Principles for 2024", which are in line with and advance the three principles of "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation", and are also China's reflections and new measures for handling China-US relations. Against this backdrop and the basic consensus between the two countries, how should China and the United States get along next?
Bao Gangsheng: Let's not discuss the issue of hawks and doves in the United States for the time being, because it is at least very difficult for us to exert effective influence on the internal affairs of the United States. Therefore, in the relations between major countries, I have always advocated doing our own things first. Back at home, in terms of policy advocacy, the country can be divided into two factions: one is the hardliners and the other is the moderate.
There is both cooperation and competition between China and the United States, and this is agreed upon by both factions.
But hardliners believe that competition and conflict are the main aspects of the U.S.-China relationship. Due to differences in political systems and ideologies, as well as sensitive issues such as the Taiwan issue, they stressed that it is difficult to avoid conflict between China and the United States, and even eventually usher in a fundamental major conflict.
From this, it can be deduced that any concessions and compromises will weaken the bargaining chips in the U.S.-China relationship, so the only viable thing to do is to be tough.
On the contrary, moderates believe that despite the competition and conflict between China and the United States, cooperation remains the main thing. From the 70s of the 20th century to the next 30 or 40 years, although Sino-US relations have been bumpy, the overall trend has been along a benign trajectory -- in this process, there are also differences in the political systems and ideologies between China and the United States, as well as the Taiwan issue. Therefore, even under these constraints, China and the United States can still return to the main tone of cooperation.
The moderates also believe that Sino-US relations are not only a matter of China's foreign affairs, but also a matter of China's development. The stability of China-US relations will help China better become a modern country.
As for the hardliners' claims, the moderates believe that there is no way out. Since it is determined that the Sino-US conflict is the general direction, it is difficult to truly and effectively improve Sino-US relations, because all the détente is only a "technical pullback", and the general direction is still towards conflict.
If you prepare for a conflict, other countries will also prepare for it, and in the international relations of the great powers, it is easy to fall into a "self-fulfilling prophecy", and the conflict can turn into a final practical outcome.
In fact, in recent years, our leaders have also expressed many views when discussing Sino-US relations. One of the viewpoints is: "We have a thousand reasons to make Sino-US relations good, and there is not a single reason to make Sino-US relations bad."
The recent speech also mentioned that China-US relations should "continue to move forward on a stable, healthy, and sustainable path, rather than go back."
On the morning of April 7, Premier Li Qiang met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing
Therefore, from this point of view, it is also the established direction to actively promote détente and cooperation between China and the United States.
How can we better deal with U.S.-China relations?
From a strategic point of view, I think there are four main points:
First of all, we need to understand the West and the United States in particular. We need a deeper understanding of Western values, institutional rules, and political operations.
I have always believed that there is a misunderstanding in the field of domestic and international relations, that is, there is too little understanding of other people's internal affairs. Internal affairs include not only the operation of institutional rules and practical politics, but also their cognition and values.
You must know that the healthy development of no country can be separated from a correct understanding of the outside world.
For China, the Western world, represented by the United States, is still the leader and dominant player in the entire external world, so how to understand the United States and the Western world is an important external variable facing China's development.
Only by properly understanding the United States and the Western world can we formulate the right policy.
Second, we need to rebuild political mutual trust. Political mutual trust between China and the United States is a two-way process, but we cannot take the lead in the affairs of the Americans, what we can do is to start from ourselves and strive to rebuild political mutual trust between China and the United States.
This involves what economists often call the "credible commitment mechanism", that is, our actual actions should become a credible commitment. One way to do this is, for example, we can create positive and negative lists that identify actions that promote political trust and actions that undermine it.
Third, clarify China's core interests and concerns. In the U.S.-China relationship, we need to make a clear distinction between China's core interests and those that are compromising and compromised.
The development of relations between major powers often requires problems to be resolved through communication, concessions and compromises. If we regard all issues as core interests, it will be more difficult to properly handle relations between major powers.
Fourth, due consideration should be given to the interests and concerns of the United States. Of course, from the US side, they should also take care of China's interests and concerns. From the Chinese side, it is important to note here that compromise does not mean weakness. In state-to-state relations, compromise is the most common and effective means of dealing with each other in state-to-state relations. There is a saying in international politics called the "spiral of conflict", and if everyone does not give in, it may eventually lead to armed conflict.
Of course, in the long run, China, as an emerging rising power, must fundamentally think clearly: what kind of China we hope to be in the future, what kind of world we want to be, and what kind of way we will get along.
This requires us to consider not only China's current situation and future vision, but also the world's current situation and future vision, and not only China's concept and interests, but also the world's concept and interests. Only by taking a long-term view can we fundamentally find a long-term, stable and harmonious political solution that benefits both China and the world.
My idea is that cognition is still primary, and the others are by-products of cognition.