For Ukraine, the peace summit is not so much a meeting to seek peace as a critical conference against Russia and Putin.
At the beginning of last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made it clear that Turkey intends to hold a peace summit to promote the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict during talks with visiting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It is worth noting that Erdogan said this not without preparation, because according to the itinerary previously announced by the Kremlin Palace, Russian President Putin will visit Turkey after the election, that is, in the near future.
[Turkey wants to be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine]
The reason why Turkey is so active in wanting to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine is certainly for the purpose of enhancing its international status, but the more core reason is that the spillover of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a huge negative impact on Turkey's key interests in the areas of economy, military, energy and food security.
In terms of military security, Turkey, one of the Black Sea littoral states, shares the benefits of the Black Sea with Russia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania and Ukraine, but because the latter's power is too weak, the actual control of the Black Sea is basically in the hands of Turkey and Russia. But for Turkey, it is best to work with other littoral states to counterbalance Russia, and if Russia wins the conflict, the Black Sea will inevitably become Russia's inland sea, which will pose a greater security challenge to Turkey
So, does Turkey have the conditions to broker reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine? Objectively, yes. The reason for this is that Turkey has good cooperation with both countries.
[Turkish flagbearer TB2 drone was shipped to Ukraine]
First, let's talk about it and Ukraine. Long before the "special military operation", Turkey had sold a large number of drones to Ukraine, and after the outbreak of the conflict, Turkey's military aid to Ukraine has not stopped, even compared with other NATO countries, for example, Turkey has provided it with a large number of "Bannerman-TB2" military drones to combat the Russian-backed Donbass armed forces, so it has been frequently protested by Russia, but Turkey has not stopped continuing arms sales to Ukraine.
On the economic and trade front, Turkey and Ukraine have also continued to have exchanges, and in 2022, on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two sides, the two sides also signed a series of trade and defense agreements, which raised the relationship between the two countries to new heights. In addition, since 2014, Turkey has repeatedly denounced Russia's annexation of Crimea as illegal, asserting the need to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
At the same time, it also maintains close ties with the Russian side. At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Turkey vetoed the EU resolution on suspending Russia's representation in the Council of Europe. Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim also said that Turkey will not impose economic sanctions against Russia. Today, Russia is still one of Turkey's largest suppliers of energy, and many Turkish companies have started to operate in Russia.
[Russia is one of Turkey's largest energy suppliers]
In addition, Turkey's unique geographical location, which straddles both Europe and Asia, and its permeability in both Eastern and Western cultures, makes it better able to understand and take into account the concerns of all parties. But in the face of Erdogan's ambitions, Zelensky did not give any face. He thanked Turkey for its help, but Turkey is not enough to act as a mediator in the war, and Zelenskyy said that Turkey cannot suppress Putin's policies and that the format of the peace summit is better for the Ukrainian side.
Zelensky's obsession with the peace summit is not ordinarily deep, and so far, four public "peace summits" have been held on the Russia-Ukraine issue. Interestingly, the content of each summit is much the same: either the Ukrainian side vigorously promotes its customized peace plan and calls for the participation and support of all countries, or Zelensky expresses his predicament in various ways, seeks support, and asks all countries to put pressure on Russia to return the "occupied" territories and pay compensation to Ukraine.
Judging from the past content, if Turkey hosts the next peace summit, Zelensky can talk about these contents again, not only can he take this opportunity to give Turkey face and narrow the distance between the two countries, but also use Turkey to exert some pressure on Russia, no matter how it is calculated, he will not suffer. But Zelensky didn't give Erdogan this face, and the reason for this is that Turkey does not have enough weight in Zelensky's heart.
[Swiss Foreign Minister Substitutes Ukraine to Lobby China to Attend Summit]
In fact, when it comes to the organizers of the peace summit, Ukraine has long had a better choice, and that is China. In the previous summits, Ukraine has persistently handed invitation letters to China, and even sent its own ambassador to China and the Swiss foreign minister to lobby the Chinese side in person. Ukraine attaches so much importance to whether China can attend the peace summit, so if China takes the initiative to hold the summit, Ukraine will naturally be overjoyed.
Moreover, from Russia's point of view, it is also a good choice for China to host the peace summit. On the one hand, China and Russia have a good foundation for cooperation, and the two sides have similar views and positions on many international issues, which provides a favorable basis for consultations between China and Russia; on the other hand, China has always adhered to the principle of fairness and fairness in international affairs and advocated resolving conflicts through peaceful dialogue, and the 12-point "peace plan" put forward by China based on the actual situation is both internationally recognized and practical, and can well take into account the interests of Russia and Ukraine.
But in my view, now is not the best time to hold a peace summit. The reason is that the willingness of Russia and Ukraine to negotiate peace is not enough, mainly the Ukrainian side, the reason why it wants China to attend or even hold the summit is to use China's influence to isolate Russia and even "put pressure" on it. And in the past few summits, the Ukrainian side has not even invited the Russian side to participate. Under such circumstances, whoever comes forward to host the peace summit is just a waste of time.