A few days ago, Israel launched an air strike on the Iranian embassy and consulates in Syria. Iran later alleged that Israel had fired six missiles from F-35 fighter jets and that the consulate building had been "flattened", killing seven people and injuring many others. Although Israel has carried out strikes against Iran in Syria in the past, the attack on the Iranian embassy was the first and undeclared war, which is not only a grave violation of international law, but also a violation of the norms governing diplomatic relations.
After Iran vowed to retaliate, Israel took a series of measures to prepare for an Iranian attack. And now Iran has not done anything.
But the last thing I want Iran to end up is the United States, because if Iran strikes Israel, then it means that the current regional conflict escalates, Iran's military strength in the Middle East can be said to be strong, Iran has an active army of about 900,000 people, the number of reserve forces is as high as 1.1 million, a proper million army level, the army is equipped with about 3,000 main battle tanks, 1,800 armored personnel carriers, 16,100 artillery, 3,600 air defense systems, 400 helicopter gunships, and dozens of global advanced UAVs。 Missiles with a range of 300 km to 2,000 km are all you need!
If Iran were to fight back against Israel, it would be difficult for Israel to respond to an attack with its small size and military strength.
The United States is very worried about the expansion of the war in the Middle East, and the United States is now unable to handle even a single Houthi rebel, and the United States has even made a promise to the Houthis that as long as the Houthis no longer attack passing merchant ships, then the Houthis will no longer be defined as a terrorist organization.
If Iran really ends, Israel is the scale of the United States, and the United States will not watch Israel suffer a large-scale attack from Iran, and the United States is the first country in the world to recognize Israel, which is a direct result of the United States' Palestinian policy. America's recognition of Israel was a victory for it to wrest control of Palestinian affairs from Britain.
The United States needs Israel as an unsinkable aircraft carrier9 to deter Arab countries in the Middle East who oppose it openly and covertly, in order to maintain the smooth flow of oil trade and maintain the dollar's status as the global reserve currency.
Israel is a bridgehead to protect the petrodollar. The petrodollar is the foundation of dollar hegemony. Dollar hegemony is a prerequisite for financial hegemony. Financial hegemony is also a necessary condition for technological hegemony and military hegemony. It can be said that Israel and the United States are in an interdependent relationship.
As far as the United States is concerned, if Iran ends, if the United States does not end, it means abandoning Israel. The result is the loss of hegemony in the Middle East, and the loss of hegemony in the Middle East will lead to the loss of oil and dollar hegemony, and then the loss of world hegemony. The United States would never make such a choice.
There used to be a classic saying in the United States: It is not that lsrael needs America. (It's not that Israel needs the United States, it's that the United States needs Israel)
After the attack on the Iranian embassy by China, the White House publicly stated that Biden clearly supports Israel's response to these threats. According to John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, the United States is "unwavering" in its support for Israel.
Therefore, if Iran really ends, the United States can only turn to the Middle East, the United States is now concentrated in the western Pacific, just to contain and suppress China, the United States Navy has 1/3 of the force in combat readiness and deployment, the US Navy Pacific Fleet now has 200 ships and more than 150,000 naval personnel, ships and personnel have reached 60% of the total strength of the US Navy Above, the U.S. military bases are divided into Hawaii, Guam, Japan, South Korea, Alaska, the U.S. mainland, Australia and New Zealand, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, There are more than 500 military bases in the Indian Ocean, North Africa, Europe, and Latin America, most of which are deployed around China, while the Hawaii base group is the link connecting the US mainland and the base groups in the western Pacific, the general hub of sea and air transportation in the Pacific, and the command center of the US Pacific Theater and the deployment area of the strategic reserve.
At present, the US Navy is trying its best to maintain two aircraft carriers in the western Pacific, and you must know that in the past 10 years, the US military has been able to dispatch at most four or five aircraft carriers at the same time, and its purpose is to do everything in its power to contain China.
Once it moves to the Middle East, it will inevitably divert military resources in the western Pacific, and then China will face much less military pressure in the Western Pacific, and without the support of the United States, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea will be much calmer, and this will also give China time to develop.
If the United States turns to the Middle East, there will only be 3 outcomes:
1. Successfully containing Iran's strike, the result is that too many military resources are consumed, and it is unable to maintain the blockade of China in the western Pacific.
2. Unable to contain Iran's strike, the final result is the loss of hegemony in the Middle East.
So if the United States really contains Iran, China will definitely end up in Asia, which is a good opportunity for China, whether it is the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, or the peninsula, as long as China makes a little move, the United States will have to divert its energy from Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
For the United States, whose military strength is now in a state of shrinkage, it is difficult to maintain the Middle East, the Western Pacific, and the three lines of Russia and Ukraine.
As long as Iran ends, then this is China's national fortune moment, the US military power is in a weakened state, if the United States 20 years ago, even if most of its military power is placed in the western Pacific, it can easily solve Iran. You must know that the U.S. military at the beginning of the 21st century can invade Iraq with the left hand and intervene in Afghanistan with the right hand.
But for the United States, which is mired in a financial crisis and a U.S. debt crisis, it is already very difficult for Gu to take into account the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the Houthis are still doing things in the Red Sea.
Whether it is militarily or economically, it will give China a chance to develop, and even create an opportunity for China to solve the problems of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait!