On April 7, 2024, Iran once again issued a stern warning about Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria and made it clear that Iran is now ready for retaliation. Iran will retaliate against Israel on a large scale at the right time and in the right way, and Israel is waiting to die, and at the same time, Iran has once again warned the United States not to stand with Israel, otherwise Iran will fight with the United States. On April 1, Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Syria on a large scale, and from April 5 to April 7, Iran's Supreme Leader, President, Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces, and other responsible persons issued stern warnings to Israel one after another, and Iran would retaliate against Israel.
First, the question is how exactly Iran will retaliate against Israel when it declares that it is ready to retaliate, which is a question of relations between Israel, the United States, and Russia in the Middle East, and one that deserves to be discussed.
First, in terms of retaliation, Iran may retaliate by sending large-scale forces to fight the Israeli army in a life-and-death battle, or by launching drones or cruise missiles, or by creating chaos in Israel. As it stands, among the three ways of retaliation, Iran is most likely to retaliate by launching drones, cruise missiles, and long-range strikes to bomb valuable targets inside or outside Israel.
In fact, sending a large number of troops or creating chaos inside Israel is a dangerous move for Iran and a retaliatory act that does not cost much to lose. After all, there are so many countries between Iran and Israel, and Iran cannot send its own ground troops, although Iran has troops in Syria, but if this armed force wants to enter the territory of Israel and fight the IDF, it will be more than worth the loss, so Iran has also passed this option. The plan of sending ground troops does not work, and it will be more difficult for Iran to bomb Israel with air force, which, as mentioned earlier, is separated by several countries that have American troops stationed in each of them. When Iran has unequivocally stated that it wants to retaliate against Israel, the United States will inevitably closely monitor the ground air force in Iran, but if Iran dares to take off and leave the country, the United States will really dare to kill it. Therefore, whether from the perspective of ground forces or from the point of view of dispatching air forces, it is estimated that Iran will not be able to afford such losses if it wants to effectively strike targets in Israel.
Of course, Iran may follow the example of Israel or U.S. intelligence agencies and create chaos inside Israel in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy, but that approach is a bit of a cost. The reason why Iran was able to express its intention to retaliate against Israel with great fanfare, and because the international community was sympathetic and understanding, was because Israel had violated the Vienna International Convention by bombing the Iranian consulate. This time, Iran stands on the moral high ground, and if Iran takes extreme measures to inflict mass destruction on civilians in Israel despite the opposition of the international community, it will only put Iran in opposition to the international community. Therefore, in terms of political implications, Iran is unlikely to take an extreme approach at this time to retaliate on targets in Israel on a large scale, which is a bit of a miscalculation. The most likely way for Iran to do so is to bomb valuable targets inside or outside Israel by launching drones or cruise missiles from a distance, as a way to vent its hatred, and so far, the only reasonable and deterrent way that Iran can use is to use drones and cruise missiles.
Second, if Iran chooses to achieve its retaliatory goals by means of long-range strikes by drones and cruise missiles, the targets that Iran wants to target are also worth discussing. Generally speaking, since Iran regards Israel as an enemy, targets inside and outside Israel can be targets for Iran, and Iran can choose any target as long as it launches a few drones and a few missiles to vent its hatred. The problem is that Iran has taken the situation so seriously this time and has been threatening to retaliate against Israel, and Iran's choice of targets must have been carefully chosen.
1. In a certain sense, Iran's first target of retaliation is Israel's consulates abroad, so as to achieve reciprocal retaliation, and Israel has fully estimated this, so it immediately closed 28 Israeli consulates abroad, because it is afraid that Iran will take reciprocal retaliation and cause harm to its own diplomats.
2. In addition to consulates abroad that may become targets of Iran's attacks, another important target that Iran may retaliate against is Israel's military camps, radar stations, and other important military facilities. These military facilities have played an absolutely supporting role in Israel's operations in the Gaza Strip and the war against Syria, and if Iran can remove these important Israeli targets at one time, it will play a very big role in supporting Syria, Yemen's Houthi rebels, and the Palestinian movement. Since Iran can think of this, Israel will also think of this, and at present, Israel has ordered the withdrawal of all troops from Gaza, leaving only one brigade in southern Gaza, and all the soldiers on leave have returned to the troops, so as to prepare for an Iranian attack, and from this point of view, it is also a little difficult for Iran to directly attack the IDF.
Third, Iran's remaining choice is to launch an attack on Israel's power plants, oil plants and other important civilian key energy facilities, if Iran can carry out large-scale bombing of Israel's civilian facilities in a country that depends on external supplies, it will inevitably cause more harm to Israel, because the people cannot stand it. At present, the ordinary people in Israel are already very disgusted with Netanyahu, and if Iran makes things worse by bombing at this time, it will undoubtedly create chaos in Israel, so this is also a possible target for Iran to consider retaliation.
Third, since Iran has a variety of options for retaliating against Israel, it is worth discussing where the most effective and direct strike against Israel will be achieved, and the most likely area for the current situation is Syria. After all, Syria is a neighbor to Israel, and the Syrian government has invited Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to be stationed in Damascus, and the Israeli attack took place in Syria. It stands to reason that Iran will inevitably make full use of Syria as a base to launch large-scale retaliation against Israel, of course, Iran did not give a clear indication of when it will retaliate, but it is estimated that it will not last long.
All in all, at present, Iran is indeed fully prepared to take bloody revenge on Israel, and it is Iran's character to return blood and tooth for tooth.
Secondly, from Israel's point of view, Israel did poke the hornet's nest this time, but it was indeed worth it for Israel to poke the hornet's nest. Whether it's Israel's fight against Hamas in Gaza, its fight against the Syrian government in Syria, or its attacks in Yemen by the Houthis and Iraqi militias, Iran is behind it. Iran has been hiding behind the scenes, as a chess player to push his pawn in the foreground to fight with Israel, bloodletting Israel, which makes Israel very angry, this time to take this opportunity, Israel is to push Iran from the background to the foreground, is to see the real chapter with Iran. Israel is also fully prepared for large-scale retaliation from Iran, but the cost of such preparation may be relatively large. For Netanyahu, a war maniac, it doesn't matter how many Israelis die, as long as Israel's great cause can be realized, these people can be consumed as victims.
Finally, from the perspective of the United States, Israel is a powerful lever and forward base for the United States to maintain hegemony in the Middle East, and even if Israel stabs the hornet's nest this time and causes a lot of trouble to the United States, if Iran's large-scale retaliation exceeds the extent that the United States can tolerate, the United States is expected to be killed.
At present, the three countries concerned are highly nervous about the large-scale retaliation, Iran, Israel, and the United States, and what is even more worrying is that the countries of the Middle East are also pricking up their ears and widening their eyes to see how Iran retaliates, how Israel retaliates, and more importantly, whether the United States has the ability to resolve the life-and-death contradictions between the two countries. Israel's stabbing of Iran's hornet's nest this time has undoubtedly dealt a devastating blow to the pattern of US hegemony in the Middle East.