The world is full of flowers in April, and it is not good at the beginning of April, which is destined to be difficult, and it is necessary to lower expectations.
Looking at a set of data, the trend of A-shares in 13 years, April is the month with the lowest probability of rising in the whole year, only 33%.
Why is April so hard?
In addition to the data, there is also the impact of the performance category.
If you look back at the market for a year, it is not difficult to find that the performance vacuum period is the time when the market is the best time to do, such as January, February, June, July, November, December, etc.
Performance is like a shackle for big A, look at the performance, the data is not necessarily true, and the punishment for fraud is not strong.
Even if the data is true, not to mention that the data is lower than expected, it is beyond expectations, as long as it is not a big exceedance, it is possible to smash the market.
So what do you say about the performance in April, it feels like cooling down after the rise in January and February.
Market hotspots
Silver: From April 9, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed for liquidation, the margin ratio of silver deferred contracts was adjusted from 10% to 12%.
Pharmaceutical: According to media reports, the U.S. Biosecurity Act may be extended to more Chinese companies, including Pharmaron.
Chips: The U.S. has asked lithography giant ASML to stop repairing some of its equipment sold to Chinese customers.
Rate cuts: The US non-farm payrolls data for March far exceeded expectations, and the market is predicting that the Fed's first rate cut will be delayed until September.
Electricity: Coal prices have declined, the price mechanism for coal-fired power capacity has been gradually implemented, and the performance of thermal power enterprises has continued to recover.
Disc review
The Shanghai Composite Index is still supported by funds, which is a bit distorted, and the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board may reflect the market more realistically.
The non-farm payrolls data of the United States in March exceeded expectations, pay attention to the CPI data of the United States on the 10th, which affects whether the United States cuts interest rates.
It stands to reason that whether the United States cuts interest rates or not, it has little to do with big A.
The reason to focus on it is to look at the impact on the gold sector.
Because gold is affected by two aspects, one is whether the United States cuts interest rates, and the other is the international situation.
Although the situation has been a bit tense recently, it seems that nothing major has happened rationally, but it is the media that has made the market nervous.
For example, gold futures rose sharply, the central mother increased its holdings of gold for 17 consecutive months, and a brokerage held a conference call for 10,000 people on non-ferrous metals.
For gold and non-ferrous metals, etc., a little hindsight, now go brainless to chase up, not afraid of not rising, afraid of being stabbed from a high place!
It's not that you can't play in the acceleration stage, it's just that you can't play arbitrage.
For example, today's gold stock ETF fell to the limit, with a pre-holiday premium of 30%, and now the premium is 14%.
In other words, if you buy it at a 7% discount from others, even if you sell it today, you can easily earn more than 10 points, but most people can't participate in the primary market subscription.
As for whether the gold sector closed the long lead today and peaked, it is difficult to say.
The golden weekend is good for fermentation, not high open low, but high open high, it stands to reason that it should be a high look, but the lack is to pull gold non-ferrous color, did not drive the index.
Since it can't resonate with the exponential strength, then the psychology still has to lower the expectations somewhat.
In addition to gold and nonferrous metals, today's stronger is the direction of electricity, with high certainty of relative performance of electricity, industrial recovery, and summer electricity consumption.
Automobile: Tesla's unmanned driving stimulation, there are still a lot of stocks in the morning, Horn 20CM, the old demon Zhejiang Shibao, etc., the whole vehicle Cialis rushed a little, and the driving force is not strong.
In terms of science and technology: CPO hardware direction Zhongji Xuchuang, etc., Huawei Hongmeng Changshan Beiming, Runhe software, etc., media reading culture, Chinese online, etc., are all pulses and cannot be moved.
On the whole, there are funds to go to the card position of gold nonferrous metals, science and technology, and automobile low-altitude economy, but the driving force is not strong.
In other aspects, the number of falling limits has increased sharply, the high-level board has a one-word nuclear button, and the pharmaceutical liquor has become the blood bag of the market.