In the past two days, the news of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to China has aroused great concern, with some people saying that the United States has borrowed money from China again, while others saying that the United States is too annoying to criticize China again. In fact, exchanges between China and the United States in the economic field are very normal, and it is also the need of the Biden administration to manage China-US relations responsibly. Against this backdrop, Biden made a major commitment to China in a telephone conversation on the evening of April 2, and it is very interesting that the past "4 noes and one unintentional" suddenly escalated to "6 noes and one no". Biden's China policy, as he said at the previous meeting in San Francisco, is that he does not seek a new Cold War, does not seek to change the Chinese system, does not strengthen alliances against China, does not support "Taiwan independence", and has no intention of "conflicting" with China. Now add two more "nos": do not seek to contain China's development, and do not seek to "decouple" from China. This raises the question: Is Biden really showing kindness and fundamentally changing his attitude toward China? Our analysis may be another delaying tactic, or a manifestation of the United States' policy of appeasing China based on its actual needs.
It is very important for China and the United States to have high-level dialogues so that the two sides can maintain a certain degree of strategic mutual trust, which is worthy of recognition. But for the current U.S. and the Biden administration, adding two is certainly a diplomatic trick, which requires us to be vigilant. The new demands on China by the United States stem from the strategic dilemma in which it finds itself. For example, Biden singled out "China's support for Russia's defense industry" and reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This also proves that the Ukraine crisis is still a thorn in the body of the United States, and now it cannot be pulled out, and it can only seek China to reduce Sino-Russian trade cooperation to avoid greater failure, which is probably very unrealistic. Whether or not a greater crisis breaks out on the Korean Peninsula is also a "time bomb" for the United States, which requires the necessary mediation by Chinese forces. Of course, the United States is also very anxious about whether the Sino-Philippine conflict in the South China Sea will escalate and whether the crisis in the Taiwan Strait will break out. As far as the United States, which is playing offshore checks and balances, wants to create contradictions to balance China and is afraid that China will turn the table, the main reason is that the US military can no longer hold back the field.
Among these crises or potential crises, the United States is actually more worried about the outbreak of the crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Since last year, U.S. think tanks have been promoting a strategy to buy themselves time by placating China. Therefore, Biden's statement that he "does not support Taiwan independence" and asks for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is true. Because the current United States is simply not capable of dealing with another crisis, let alone playing on the doorstep of a giant like China. When the US military is unable to deal with the situation in the Taiwan Strait, it is a strategy to appease China not to use force, and it cannot be ruled out that the United States will emphasize the prospect of supporting China's long-term peaceful reunification, and this will not affect the fact that the United States will continue to support cross-strait separatism in private. For the Biden administration, which cares a lot about alliances, showing a responsible side through dialogue is also a public opinion warfare technique, or rather a memorial arch for itself. To be honest, neither Australia nor European allies support Biden's "decoupling" and "de-risking", and Biden has to make commitments to China on these two issues for the first time. Of course, the current situation of persistent inflation in the US economy also proves that "decoupling" from China will not work at all, and he has also chosen to accept reality after being educated by reality.
But we must note that no matter what Biden says, the U.S. government's means of containing China are still increasing. For example, the United States has just updated its export restrictions on artificial intelligence chips to China. Biden's justification for emphasizing to China on this issue is nothing more than the hope that China will accept reality and that it is better not to resist. Overall, although Biden has his own calculations to increase the goodwill to China, it is a good thing that high-level communication between China and the United States has been maintained. As far as China is concerned, we do not seek confrontation, decoupling and de-risking with the United States, but also hope for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and strive for a few years of strategic development opportunities for ourselves. The United States is also stepping up its suppression of China in the high-tech industry, and China is even less likely to follow the path arranged by the United States. This determines that the real showdown between the two sides is still at the level of science and technology and economic development, and we must win respect through the progress of our own strength, and this struggle is far from over.