Source: Photo.com
Recently, Chairman of Alibaba Group, Joe Tsai, was interviewed by Nicolai Tangen, Investment Director of Norway's sovereign wealth fund. Talking about chip shortages and limitations, he believes that China has the ability to make its own high-end GPU chips, and it does not necessarily have to use Nvidia.
In October last year, the United States imposed very strict restrictions on the ability of companies like Nvidia to export high-end chips to all Chinese companies, Tsai said. Alibaba's cloud business and its ability to provide high-end computing services to customers has also suffered, but in the long run, China can make these high-end GPUs on its own.
At present, the shortage of high-end chips is a big problem, and in terms of solving the chip supply problem, Ali has started to develop its own chips very early while purchasing chips from other companies. "In the short term, I think you've got a lot of inventory, and in the next year or 18 months, the LLM (large language model) training can still go ahead, given the inventory you have now. "Training requires more high computing power, but when it comes to reasoning, there are many options. You don't need a high-end chip like an Nvidia GPU. ”
As the biggest winner of the artificial intelligence boom, Nvidia's stock price has risen all the way, up 83% so far this year. However, several Wall Street analysts have said that Nvidia's best days may be behind us, and this year may start to "stumble".
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria believes that the chipmaker's huge gains may soon be over. He expects Nvidia's share price to fall by up to 20% by the end of the year. Luria said Nvidia is unlikely to maintain a rapid pace of growth, as companies that invest in AI will definitely eventually exit. In a note, he gave the stock a "hold" rating and a price target of $620, which is Wall Street's lowest expectations.
Deutsche Bank maintained a "hold" rating on Nvidia stock in a recent report, but noted that the chipmaker's share price is already high. Analysts have set a price target of $850 per share, implying a 3% decline from current levels.
Brian Colello, equity strategist at Morningstar, said no other company has as much dominance in the market as Nvidia, but tech giants such as Microsoft and Amazon are certainly "fighting their way." Colello speculated that Nvidia's stock could also take a hit if the economy slows. If a customer like Microsoft scales back on GPU spending, it could spell problems for Nvidia, as investors already have high expectations for the stock. Morningstar has a neutral rating on the stock with a price target of $910. This means that the stock will be largely flat for the rest of the year.
Global GPU chip industry chain competition analysis
From the perspective of the global GPU chip industry chain, most of the industry giants are concentrated in the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea, etc., which are at the core of all links of the industrial chain and play a decisive role in the global GPU industry. Among them, in the design process, NVIDIA and AMD almost monopolize the market of independent GPU chips, while Intel and AMD almost monopolize the integrated GPU chip market; Equipment, materials, EDA/IP and other links are mainly occupied by leading enterprises in the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries; In the manufacturing process, TSMC and Samsung's technical level is in a leading position; In the closed testing link, it is currently mainly occupied by Chinese (including Taiwan and mainland China) and American companies.
AT PRESENT, CHINA'S GPU MARKET IS MAINLY MONOPOLIZED BY NVDIA, AMD, INTEL AND OTHER COMPANIES. AS OF FEBRUARY 2024, THE PROPORTION OF REVENUE IN CHINA OF NVDIA, AMD, AND INTEL IS ABOUT 26%.
The global market size is expected to exceed $32 billion by 2027
According to IC Insights data, the global GPU chip market size grew by more than 20% from 2015 to 2021, and in 2021, the global GPU chip market size exceeded 22 billion US dollars.
According to JPR data, it is expected that from 2022 to 2026, global GUP shipments will achieve a compound annual growth rate of 6.3%, and the market size of the global GPU chip industry is estimated to exceed $32 billion in 2027 at this growth rate.
According to forward-looking industry research, GPUs will still dominate the Al chip market in the short term, and will continue to lead Al chips in the short term. As the most mature and widely used general-purpose chip for Al computing on the market, GPU has great application potential. With its powerful computing power and high versatility, GPUs will continue to occupy the main market share of Al chips.
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For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of China's GPU Chip Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute
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