The "periodic table" continues to perform, and the pro-cyclical sector still has a repeated market in April?

Titanium Media APP

2024-04-08 17:57Published on the official account of Beijing Titanium Media APP

 1. Trend review

On April 8, the three major indexes fell collectively, with the market capitalization of science and technology and small and medium-sized enterprises falling greatly, the ChiNext fell by 1.81%, the science and technology innovation 50 index fell by more than 2%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 index fell by more than 4%, and the CNI 2000 also fell by more than 2%.

Today, the non-ferrous metal sector continues to perform, but the overall performance is accelerating, and there is a strong and weak differentiation within the country, and there may be adjustments in the short term.

However, in the April earnings month, funds will prefer more certainty, and can focus on the CPI and social finance data to be released this week, if it continues to confirm that the economy is repairing, it may continue to stimulate the relevant pro-cyclical sectors, and the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue to perform repeatedly.

The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 931.4 billion, an increase of 13.5 billion from the previous trading day. More than 4,300 stocks in the two markets fell. Northbound funds sold a net of 3.045 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sale of 1.52 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 1.525 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Chart: Changes in the turnover of the two markets in the past 7 trading days

Chart: Net inflow of northbound funds in the past month Data source: Wind data

Second, the performance of the sector

Today's leading industry sectors are precious metals, electricity, hotels and restaurants, and the concept sectors leading the gains are approved sub-IPOs, gold concepts, and metal zinc.

The industry sectors with the largest net inflow of main funds are electric power and automobiles, and the conceptual sectors with the largest inflows are green power, nuclear power, and the reform of central and state-owned enterprises.

3. Pioneer of individual stocks

As of the close of trading on April 8, there were 9 stocks on the board.

The stock with the highest net inflow of main funds was Yangtze River Power, with an inflow of 637 million yuan, followed by China Nuclear Power, with an inflow of 514 million yuan.

The top five gainers of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect are as follows.

Fourth, market sentiment

1. Playing board height: Laishen Tongling, Sega Technology 5 boards.

2. Today, 797 stocks in the two cities rose and 4,518 fell, with the decline range mainly concentrated between -7% and 0, and the rise range mainly concentrated in 0-3%. The number of companies that rose more than 5%: The number of companies that fell more than 5% was 141:813, compared with 154:254 in the previous trading day.

3. There are 55 daily limits today, 47 last trading day, and the daily limit sealing rate has risen from 64% to 75%. The average return of individual stocks on the trading day is -0.44%.

4. Record high stocks:

Today, there are 9 stocks of Industrial Yintin, Hisense Home Appliances, Yintai Gold, Yunji Group, Halma Technology, Hongcheng Environment, Agricultural Bank of China, Samsung Medical, and Andeli hitting a record high (8 stocks on the previous trading day), and Hisense Home Appliances and Andeli are continuing to hit new highs on the basis of the new highs on the previous trading day.

5. Frontline opportunities

1、P70

The market expects that the Huawei P70 will be released early in the near future.

Related stocks: Guanghong Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, O-film, Visionox, Huali Chuangtong

2. Precious metals

The international gold price has hit consecutive record highs, with UBS expecting the gold price to reach US$2,300/oz in June and US$2,500/oz by the end of 2024 and March 2025. On April 8, the main silver contract also closed with a daily limit, hitting a new high since November 2012.

Related stocks: Silver Nonferrous Metals, Shengda Resources, Dengyun Shares, Shandong Gold

3. Tourism

According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there were 119 million domestic tourism trips nationwide during the three-day Qingming holiday, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019, and domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019. Under the hot sentiment of tourism consumption during the Qingming holiday, it is expected that the demand for tourism consumption during the May Day holiday will be further released.

Related stocks: China Duty Free, Songcheng Performing Arts, Zhangjiajie, Qujiang Cultural Tourism

4. Biodiesel

On March 29, the National Energy Administration announced the pilot project for the promotion and application of biodiesel, and supported Dezhou City, Shandong Province and other units to carry out the pilot work of biodiesel promotion and application in principle. Relevant policies will continue to promote the expansion of domestic biodiesel application scenarios and expand the domestic biodiesel market share.

Related stocks: Shangao Environmental Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, High Energy Environment, Excellent New Energy

5. AI corpus

Although the market has great expectations for AI applications, there is still uncertainty about which direction can take the lead in running out, and the more certain is still the upstream demand, in addition to computing power, the supply of AI corpus involves copyright, professionalism and diversity, and the demand for large models is huge.

Related stocks: Huace Film and Television, Zhangyue Technology, China Science and Technology, Visual China.

6. Blockchain

Bitcoin rebounded again, breaking above $72,000 during the day. It is also reported that a number of leading fund companies, including Harvest Fund and China Southern Fund, are using the Hong Kong subsidiary to deploy Bitcoin ETFs.

Related stocks: Xiongdi Technology, Yuyin Shares, Zhidu Shares, Feitian Integrity

Sixth, the viewpoint is forward-looking

Guosheng Securities believes that in the short term, the rebound of large institutions has not yet ended, and if there is a shock adjustment to fill the gap or a benign adjustment on the way up. In the medium term, with the intensive introduction of stable growth policies, the process of economic recovery is expected to accelerate, and incremental funds may return to the stage of grasping rebound, and the amount of attention can be enlarged simultaneously. At the same time, after the full implementation of the registration system, its survival of the fittest mechanism will help the market style tend to be "blue chips", and the intermediate market of the Shanghai Index will not be absent and will only go deeper and deeper. In terms of operation, it is still necessary to control the overall position rotation before the market can effectively exert force, and the "high dividend" high-performing central enterprises and pro-cyclical resource varieties are expected to become the main driving force for the market rebound.

CICC said that although the rebound slope of the A-share index may have slowed down compared with the previous period, the repair market is still expected to continue, and the downside risk of the current position is very limited. In terms of industry allocation, growth continues to lead, focusing on areas of marginal improvement in fundamentals. 1) Technology growth sectors that benefit from domestic industrial policy support and clear industrial trends, such as TMT-related industries such as semiconductors and communications. 2) Industries that take the lead in achieving supply-side clearance in a moderate recovery environment, such as some resource industries, auto parts with strong performance elasticity, and export chain-related industries that are driven by the improvement of external demand.

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