Hot Spotlight //
1. Premier Li Qiang met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Li Qiang expressed the hope that the United States will work with China to adhere to the basic norms of fair competition, openness and cooperation in the market economy, and not to politicize and securitize economic and trade issues. It is necessary to look at the issue of production capacity objectively and dialectically from the market vision and global vision, starting from the economic law. The development of China's new energy industry will make an important contribution to the global green and low-carbon transition. China is ready to strengthen policy coordination with the US on issues such as climate change and jointly address global challenges.
2. According to the statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of March 2024, the scale of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves was US$3,245.7 billion, an increase of US$19.8 billion, or 0.62%, from the end of February. The mainland's economic upward trend has been consolidated and strengthened, and the fundamentals of the long-term positive economy will not change, which will provide support for the scale of foreign exchange reserves to remain basically stable.
3. The Ministry of Finance decided to issue the first phase of savings bonds (electronic) and the second phase of savings bonds (electronic) in 2024, with a total issuance amount of 45 billion yuan. Among them, the first phase has a term of 3 years, an annual coupon rate of 2.38%, and a maximum issuance amount of 22.5 billion yuan, and the second phase has a term of 5 years, a coupon annual interest rate of 2.5%, and a maximum issuance amount of 22.5 billion yuan. The issuance period of the first and second tranches of treasury bonds is from April 10 to April 19, 2024, with interest starting on April 10, 2024, and interest payable annually, and interest payable on April 10 of each year. The purchase of each treasury bond by a single person's second-level custody account shall not exceed 3 million yuan.
4. [Outlook for major events] In the coming week, the global market will continue to be eventful, with China releasing a series of key economic data, the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes and inflation data, the European Central Bank and other major central banks announcing interest rate decisions, OPEC announcing monthly reports, and U.S. stocks starting the earnings season.
Global Markets //
1. When Australia and New Zealand enter winter time, their financial market trading hours and economic data release time will be delayed by one hour compared with summer time.
Macro//
1. The central bank has set up re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation to encourage and guide financial institutions to increase financial support for small and medium-sized technology-based enterprises, technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas. The reloan amount for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation is 500 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of 1 year, which can be extended twice and each time for a period of 1 year. The recipients include 21 financial institutions, including China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, Postal Savings Bank of China, and joint-stock commercial banks.
2. The central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan on April 7, with a winning interest rate of 1.8%, and 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, so a net withdrawal of 398 billion yuan was realized.
3. This week, the central bank will have 6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due in the open market. Among them, 2 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan, 0 billion yuan, and 0 billion yuan are due from Monday to Friday respectively.
4. The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting of the Leading Group for Rural Revitalization and pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to local conditions and classified policies, closely follow the characteristics of business work to carry out fixed-point assistance, help designated counties to enhance endogenous development momentum, and ensure that various measures to promote rural revitalization are in place.
5. The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting on "Investing in China" for German enterprises in Munich. Ling Ji, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative for International Trade Negotiations, expressed the hope that German companies will seize the opportunities of China's digital economy development and green transformation, strengthen cooperation in electric vehicles, clean energy, biopharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence and other fields, and promote greater development of China-Germany economic and trade relations.
6. The Supreme People's Court is soliciting public comments on the draft Interpretation (2) on the Application of the Marriage and Family Section of the Civil Code. The judicial interpretation intends to provide for issues such as "fake divorce" and live streaming tips for minors. Where, after a husband and wife register their divorce, one party requests confirmation that the divorce is invalid on the grounds that both parties have expressed false intentions, the people's court will not support it. Where one party has evidence to prove that both parties' intentions are false, and requests confirmation that the relevant property and debt treatment clauses in the divorce agreement are invalid, and advocates a new division of the joint property of the husband and wife, the people's court shall support it in accordance with law.
7. A number of recently released data indicators show that China's economy showed a positive trend in the first quarter as the effect of macro portfolio policies continued to be released. Entering the second quarter, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of enterprises, the detailed measures of "trade-in" of consumer goods, the relevant management measures for the participation of social capital in infrastructure construction, and the high-quality development policies of specialized, special and new small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to accelerate the implementation and achieve results, so as to further consolidate the foundation for economic recovery.
August and March financial data will be released soon. Experts said that based on the analysis of the current macroeconomic situation and high-frequency data performance, the scale of new RMB loans in March is expected to rebound month-on-month and decrease year-on-year. Credit growth has been smoother between quarters and months under the requirement of balanced allocation. In order to focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting confidence, more vigorous policies may be on the way, and RRR and interest rate cuts are still in the policy toolbox.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. The Shanghai Stock Exchange plans to carry out the selection of the "Top 100 ETF Business Departments" of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2023. The SSE determines the upper limit of the number of business departments that can be recommended by brokerages based on the ETF business development of each brokerage, that is, the ranking of the cumulative trading volume of ETFs in 2023 or the ranking of the number of accounts held by ETFs as of the end of 2023. Among them, a total of 24 brokerages can recommend up to 3 business departments to participate in the evaluation.
2. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued fines to 6 "new" violators, which violated the relevant rules and regulations of the exchange and the securities industry association to varying degrees.
3. A number of securities firms plan to apply for the qualification of market-making business on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The board of directors of Southwest Securities and Western Securities approved the company's application to carry out market-making business on the Beijing Stock Exchange; Guoyuan Securities said that it applied for the market-making qualification of the Beijing Stock Exchange and the Science and Technology Innovation Board to expand the company's investment scope; at present, Capital Securities and GF Securities have submitted relevant application materials to the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
4. In the past week, there have been more than 230 stocks surveyed by institutions. Among them, BOE A received the highest attention from institutions, and 268 institutions investigated the company. Stocks such as Huayang Group, Gaotei Co., Ltd., Tebao Biotechnology, and Desay SV have also been investigated by more than 100 institutions.
5. CATL will hold a press conference on April 9 to release its new energy storage products.
6. The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it would terminate the review of the initial public offering of shares of Zhejiang Mingtai Holding Development Co., Ltd. and its listing on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
7. CITIC Securities said that it is currently in a period of revision of domestic economic expectations and global liquidity expectations, and the A-share market is changing from incremental funds to stock capital games;
8. The China Securities Association has issued the "Analysis of the Business Situation of Securities Companies in 2023" to securities companies, which comprehensively analyzes the operating data and development trend of the securities industry in 2023. From the perspective of business structure, in 2023, the proportion of business income from proprietary business, brokerage business, investment banking business, net interest income, and asset management business to operating income will be 29.99%, 27.78%, 13.42%, 13.09%, and 5.54%, respectively, and the business structure will remain stable. Since 2019, the proprietary business has once again surpassed the securities brokerage business and become the largest source of income for brokerages.
9. A few days ago, a number of fund managers who manage the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index products said that the valuation of the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index has fallen back to a level that is more compatible with the growth, which is a good time for medium and long-term funds to enter the market. These companies have demonstrated strong competitiveness and innovation in their respective fields.
10. Although before the Qingming holiday, the main stock indexes of the A-share market rebounded slightly, but from the latest predictions of many institutions, the market disturbance may increase after April, and in the face of a market with increased volatility, for investors, some positive signals are confirmed to be a better decision-making point. From the perspective of industry allocation, the high dividend dividend strategy continues to attract institutional attention and recognition, and the direction of export and service consumption supported by the performance in the first quarter of pro-cyclical assets, as well as the possible valuation repair opportunities of leading companies in cyclical sectors, are also worth grasping.
11. The Trial Measures for the Administration of Overseas Issuance and Listing of Securities by Domestic Enterprises and its supporting guidance documents came into force on March 31, 2023. Over the past year or so, the enthusiasm for overseas listing of enterprises has increased. As of March 31, 2024, there were 134 overseas initial public offering filings and full circulation filings. According to the latest data from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as of March 28, the number of enterprises applying for overseas initial public offerings and full circulation filings reached 102.
12. Wind data shows that as of 19:00 on April 7, a total of 1,244 A-share listed companies have disclosed their 2023 annual reports, of which 752 companies have achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit, accounting for 60.45%, and 162 companies have achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023 by more than 100%. From the perspective of the industry, the tourism and scenic spots, services and catering consumption, automobiles, chemicals, electric power, semiconductors, and biomedical industries performed well.
13. On April 7, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, presided over a roundtable meeting of Chinese-funded electric vehicle enterprises in Europe in Paris, France. Representatives of more than 10 enterprises such as the Chinese Chamber of Commerce in the European Union and Geely, SAIC, BYD and CATL attended the meeting. The participants introduced the investment and operation in Europe and the response to the EU anti-subsidy investigation of electric vehicles, and the meeting focused on optimizing the global layout of Chinese enterprises and deepening the pragmatic cooperation between China and the EU in the electric vehicle industry.
14. NIO and SINIC jointly held a ceremony for the C-sample of the self-developed SiC module. The holding of this off-line ceremony marks the further improvement of the maturity of NIO's self-developed SiC modules, and it is one step closer to mass production.
15. Guangzhou Andi Technology Co., Ltd., a joint venture between GAC Aion and Didi Autonomous Driving, was approved for industrial and commercial licenses, with both parties holding 50% of the shares. In 2025, the company will launch its first commercial Level 4 autonomous driving model. The first unmanned vehicle is positioned as a crossover SUV, and the product definition has been completed, and the design and styling are being jointly reviewed, and mass production is planned to be achieved next year.
16. Hytera's official website announced that according to the order of the U.S. court, Hytera is not allowed to sell any products containing walkie-talkie technology anywhere in the world until further notice.
17. According to the sales staff of the Xiaomi car showroom, the price of Xiaomi car insurance in the first year is between 6,000 yuan and 8,000 yuan. As for the price of new car insurance for the Xiaomi SU7, consumers have mixed reviews. From the perspective of the overall market of new energy vehicle insurance, the current situation of "car owners shouting expensive, insurance companies shouting losses" still needs to be improved.
Finance//
1. The annual reports of major banks show that the wealth of private banks is still growing. However, China Merchants Bank, the largest private bank, has completely "hidden" the latest 2023 annual report on the asset scale of private banks after the 2023 semi-annual report, while the private banking scale of ICBC, which previously ranked second, exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and the private banking scale of China CITIC Bank exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time, becoming the eighth bank with a private banking scale of more than 1 trillion yuan.
2. All the public offering results have been released. The data shows that in 2023, the profit performance of bond funds is remarkable, with its total profit reaching 238.1 billion yuan, exceeding the total profit of currency funds by 228.1 billion yuan. At the same time, commodity funds and REITs funds also recorded positive profits, with a total profit of 6.1 billion yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively. However, QDII funds, FOF funds, equity funds and hybrid funds have seen profit losses, but these funds have reduced their losses this year compared to the same period of the previous year.
3. Zhejiang issued the "Work Plan on Promoting the High-quality Development of Inclusive Finance", striving to achieve a loan coverage rate of 50% for active business entities in Zhejiang Province by the end of 2027, a credit loan ratio of 18% for inclusive small and micro enterprises, and a penetration rate of no less than 30% for export credit insurance.
4. AXA Insurance announced that it has completed the acquisition of 100% of the shares of Xinli Re China, and said that it will continue to invest firmly in the Chinese insurance market.
5. Based on the dividend payment date, a total of 1,276 funds have implemented dividends (Class A/C are calculated separately) since the beginning of this year, with a cumulative dividend of 46.851 billion yuan, and a total dividend of 102 funds exceeding 100 million yuan. The yield of the bond base has risen sharply, and the enthusiasm for dividends is high. Since the beginning of this year, the total dividend amount of bond funds has reached 40.968 billion yuan, accounting for 87.44% of the dividends of all funds, far exceeding other types of funds.
6. Recently, the signs of recovery in the issuance of public funds have become more and more obvious. Wind data shows that in March 2024, the issuance scale of public funds exceeded 150 billion yuan, and the scale in January and February was 56.538 billion yuan and 36.097 billion yuan respectively. Judging from the new funds that have been finalized, there are at least 82 new fund products that will be issued after April 7.
7. With the successive disclosure of the annual reports of listed companies, the operation of the fund companies in which they hold shares in 2023 has also been released. Overall, affected by the volatile trend of the A-share market last year, the net profit of most fund companies declined, and fund companies with a high proportion of equity funds were more affected. Against the backdrop of pressure on overall performance, some fund companies have successfully achieved contrarian growth or turned losses into profits with the help of specialized businesses.
Housing//
1. According to the monitoring data released by Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, in March, a total of 5,370 new commercial houses were transacted in Shanghai, an increase of 299% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 41%, a turnover of 59.4 billion yuan, an increase of 440% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 3%, an average total price of 11.05 million yuan/set, an increase of 35% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 65%, and an average transaction price of 86,050 yuan/square meter, an increase of 29% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 41%.
2. The news of "buy one get one free" in a real estate project in Beijing swiped the real estate circle. According to the news, Beijing Tongzhou Merchants Bright A.D. Project opened a buy-one-get-one-free activity during the Qingming holiday, buying a 77-square-meter two-bedroom and getting a 108-square-meter seaview existing house in Yantai for free. In this regard, the real estate sales staff said that the news is true. However, it is limited to some properties and requires full payment.
3. The Fujian Supervision Bureau of the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued the "Guiding Opinions of the Fujian Supervision Bureau of the State Financial Supervision and Administration on Promoting the High-quality Development of Ageing Finance", proposing to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply of ageing financial consumer products and continue to promote the pilot work of the conversion of life insurance liability and long-term care insurance liability.
Industry//
1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Standard Conditions for the Electric Bicycle Industry" and the "Administrative Measures for the Standard Announcement of the Electric Bicycle Industry". The "Standard Conditions for the Electric Bicycle Industry" proposes to encourage enterprises to vigorously promote intelligent manufacturing, improve the level of modern management, safety production guarantee capacity and resource allocation efficiency, and promote the digital upgrading of product research and development, production and operation, marketing management, after-sales service and other links. Enterprises should use 3D software for modeling design, equipped with and use ERP (enterprise resource planning), MES (production execution system). Encourage enterprises to code and identify the electric bicycle batteries produced or purchased, and promote the traceability management of battery information.
2. According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, from April 4 to 6, 2024 (Qingming holiday), the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society was 740.386 million, with a daily average of 246.795 million people, an average daily increase of 53.5% over the same period in 2023 and an average daily increase of 18.9% over the same period in 2019.
In March and the first week of April, the price of N-type rod silicon fell sharply, with an average transaction price of 60,600 yuan/ton, down 15.95% month-on-month. As for the month-on-month decline in polysilicon prices, many industry insiders said that the increase in polysilicon supply was significantly caused.
4. The State Administration for Market Regulation decided to implement compulsory product CCC certification for 7 kinds of products with high safety risks, including commercial gas burning appliances, electronic toilets, electric bicycle occupant helmets, and water-based interior wall paints, and restored low-voltage components from CCC self-declaration to third-party evaluation.
5. Dae Woo Kim, an executive of Samsung Electronics' advanced packaging team, said at the 2024 annual meeting of the Korean Society of Microelectronics and Packaging that the verification of the 16-layer hybrid bonding HBM memory technology has been completed recently, and the memory sample is working normally, and the 16-layer stacked hybrid bonding technology will be used for the mass production of HBM4 memory in the future.
6. According to the data of the Internet sales platform, since March, the turnover of camping tents has increased by 240% month-on-month, the turnover of shower tents has increased by 150% month-on-month, and the turnover of three-in-one screen automatic tents has increased by 700% month-on-month.
7. Huawei officially announced that more than 4,000 applications have joined the HarmonyOS ecosystem. On January 18 this year, Huawei announced that the first batch of more than 200 application vendors were accelerating the development of HarmonyOS native applications, and by the end of March, the growth rate was as high as 20 times in just over two months. In addition, Huawei will hold the HarmonyOS Spring Communication Conference on April 11, when it will release car and PC related products.
Overseas-
1. In the United States, the wholesale price of used cars in March decreased by 0.34% month-on-month by model mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted, and the retail listing price of used cars was flat month-on-month.
2. The Korea Development Research Institute released a report pointing out that exports continued to recover and the recession fears were alleviated. Exports continued to recover by 3.1% year-on-year in March, with a sharp growth rate of 9.9% after February (12.5%).
International Stock Market //
1. Tesla plans to build a supercharging station with more than 200 charging piles in Florida, USA, which will become the largest supercharging station in the world. Due to sales difficulties, Tesla CEO Elon Musk's personal wealth has shrunk, and now it has fallen to the fourth place in the world with a value of $181 billion.
2. The Carlyle Group is considering selling StandardAero, a U.S. aircraft maintenance service provider, at a valuation of about $10 billion.
3. According to industry insiders, Samsung Electronics has obtained an order for 2.5D packaging of NVIDIA AI chips and is in mass production.
4. Volkswagen's CEO said that the target of reducing new vehicle emissions by 15% by 2025 is too high.
Commodity-
1. According to central bank data, China's gold reserves were 72.74 million ounces at the end of March and 72.58 million ounces at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of increasing gold reserves.
2. Public fund people believe that the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts, global central bank gold purchase demand exceeds expectations, geopolitical risks and other factors have led to new highs in gold prices. Under the continued influence of the above factors, there may still be room for gold prices to rise in the future. Public fund people also said that although gold is also facing risk factors such as speculative profit-taking, the Fed's continued delay in interest rate cuts, etc., it is difficult to reverse the long-term upward logic of gold. In the context of a clear medium- and long-term trend, it may be a safer choice to intervene in the event of an adjustment.
3. During the Qingming Festival holiday, gold prices continued to rise. The international gold price once again hit a record high, and the gold price of jewelry in many brand gold stores also rose, even exceeding the 700 yuan/gram mark. Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, said that gold can be a good choice if it is part of long-term investment and asset diversification, but if you are looking for short-term high returns, then you may need to consider the volatility and risk of gold prices.
Bond//
1. [Bond Market Overview] The bond market traded lightly throughout the day, with major interbank interest rate bonds rising slightly, and the yields of 5-year and 10-year treasury bond active bonds rising by about 0.5bp. Traders said that the market is still digesting the wording of "paying attention to long-term yield changes" mentioned in the central bank's first-quarter meeting, and in the short term, the supply of ultra-long government bonds is coming, putting pressure on the bond market.
2. [Major Bond Events] "19 China Merchants MTN003B" will be fully redeemed on May 10; Nanjing Pharmaceutical plans to issue ultra-short-term financing bonds with a scale of no more than 6 billion yuan; Xu Jiongwei was appointed as vice president of CITIC Financial Asset Management; Jing'an District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission transferred 391.6 million shares of Tibet City Investment to Shanghai North Enterprise (Group); and the controlling shareholder of Baoji Investment (Group) changed.
Important Economic Agenda //
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