The three major A-share indexes closed down, and the ChiNext fell nearly 2%, and the non-ferrous metal sector continued to carnival

National Business Daily

2024-04-08 17:03Published on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Every reporter: Zhao Yun Every editor: Peng Shuiping

On April 8, the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indexes all closing down, with the ChiNext index leading the decline. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.57%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.81%.

In terms of sectors, gold, electricity, automobiles, banks and other sectors were among the top gainers, while dyes, BC batteries, flexible screens, medical devices and other sectors were among the top decliners.

Overall, more than 4,500 stocks in the market fell, and more than 80 stocks fell more than 9%. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 931.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

Northbound funds sold a net of 3.045 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sale of 1.52 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 1.525 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Today's market does have a bit of a taste of witnessing history.

On the one hand, the gold price continued to soar, so that the A-share non-ferrous metal sector, which had the fullest fermentation during the holiday and the original demand for "making up for the rise", continued to carnival, and the leading theme once became the "periodic table". During the session, the main contract of Shanghai Bank also hit the daily limit, and the price hit a new high since November 2012.

But on the other hand, the market is not strong today. The index continued to fall before the holiday, and individual stocks fell more and rose less; the popular themes in the early stage were still on the list of decliners, and some small metal branches in the end of the market also fell significantly; in terms of short-term sentiment, the number of falling limits also hit a new high in recent times.

As of the close, the annual rise of the precious metals sector has been unbeatable, is the next strong Hengqiang, or should it be rotated?

In addition to the excitement, this article will share some details that you may have overlooked on today's market.

1. Gold soared, silver futures rose to the limit, but gold stock ETFs rarely opened second-to-fall limits

From the holiday to today's pre-market, the hottest topic in the market is undoubtedly non-ferrous metals.

The rising logic of non-ferrous metals is also constantly enriched, according to the media, the current market has the following views:

Insufficient long-term capital spending, resulting in supply constraints, while demand remains stable;

The strategic nature of resources, the switching of global growth momentum, bringing new demand;

from trading "rate cut expectations" to "reflation";

Global replenishment resonance.

This morning, spot gold opened low and went high, once again refreshing the historical record, once rushing to $2,354 per ounce.

Who doesn't envy this strong physical yang line?

As gold has repeatedly hit new highs, silver has also ushered in a wave of strong market.

After 10 o'clock in the morning, Shanghai silver futures hit the daily limit, and although the follow-up was opened, it barely closed the daily limit.

Funeng Futures analysis believes that in 2024, silver is expected to have a structural market shortage for the fourth consecutive year, photovoltaic + AI is an important demand increment, and the Federal Reserve may start an interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, when the real interest rate will fall rapidly, and silver investment demand may recover. In the context of the instability of the global political and economic pattern, frequent geopolitical conflicts and the continuous impact of the US dollar credit system, the long-term bull foundation of gold prices still exists, and the gold-silver ratio is at a historically high level, which will drive silver up.

The so-called gold-silver ratio is the price of gold / silver, because the financial attributes of gold are strong and the commodity attributes are weak, silver has both commodity attributes and financial attributes, so the gold-silver ratio can be regarded as an index that excludes financial attributes and has commodity attributes.

It is worth noting that although the gold sector is still soaring, a gold stock ETF that had been up and down for 3 consecutive trading days was suspended for 1 hour this morning, but there was a second drop after the opening at 10:30.

In principle, one is that the product tracks "gold stocks" rather than gold prices, so the volatility is naturally greater. Second, the product still has a premium of nearly 14% at the price limit today, and there is a strong demand for cash in the market.

Another ETF that tracks the same underlying has a premium of only 0.27%, which is normal today.

ChinaAMC Fund said that the gold stock ETF had a continuous price limit in the secondary market, accompanied by a high premium, and such a price limit was actually not the real increase of the underlying index, and other ETFs following the same underlying index did not have a daily limit. The reason why gold stock ETFs have such a continuous daily limit is because special time nodes and special products have encountered special markets.

To put it bigger, in fact, not only ETFs, but also individual stocks to sectors, as long as the market identifies that the short-term premium rate exceeds the standard, it will eventually usher in a return to value.

In many cases, the income we earn from stock trading comes from fluctuations, rather than the rise and fall of a certain variety.

2. The overall market is weak, and there are signs of weight today

As of the close, less than 800 stocks rose in the whole market.

If you exclude the non-ferrous metal sector stocks, this figure is obviously lower.

Some readers may have noticed that the Shanghai Composite Index once turned red in early trading. However, from the perspective of contribution, this wave of rise obviously comes from "Zhongzitou" stocks, which has little to do with small and medium-cap stocks.

Flush data shows that in terms of industry indexes, in addition to the precious metals sector, only a few sectors such as electricity, hotels and restaurants closed up today, let's take a brief look at what they catalyzed.

1) Electricity, banks

The reason why they are put together is that both have high dividend attributes and account for a relatively high proportion of the constituent stocks of the dividend index.

Today, the dividend index is the strongest among the major indices (the constituent stocks closed up 29/50), which is supported by both, and also shows that market funds are more defensive.

Specific to the power sector, there are several catalysts for the strengthening of the contrarian trend.

First, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the Notice on Organizing and Carrying out the "Wind Control Action in Thousands of Towns and Villages", requiring that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, a number of wind power projects will be built in rural areas of qualified counties (cities, districts, banners) with villages as units.

Second, with the steady growth of the national economy, the demand for electricity continues to rise. Statistics from the National Energy Administration show that in January ~ February this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 1,531.6 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Among them, industrial electricity consumption was 952 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%.

In addition, the demand for electricity will increase further as the summer electricity peak is approaching.

2) Hotel & Catering

According to Xinhua News Agency, 119 million domestic tourists traveled during the Qingming Festival holiday, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019.

Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that although the Qingming holiday was short, people's enthusiasm for travel was still high. Various travel destinations and consumer products show a trend of rapid iteration to meet the needs of consumers of different ages.

Against this backdrop, tourism in the Midwest and lower-tier cities has seen significant growth.

Next, the May Day holiday in the near future will obviously have some optimistic expectations.

3) Vehicles (including tire pressure monitoring concept)

There was also a lot of news over the weekend - Tesla will release a driverless taxi (Robotaxi) product on August 8, which aims to use self-driving technology to enable Tesla vehicles to pick up and drop off passengers and collect fares autonomously. Musk had previously predicted that in the future driverless taxis would be more common than human-driven cars.

In addition, according to the announcement of the State Intellectual Property Office last week, BYD Co., Ltd. applied for a project called "tire pressure monitoring device and vehicle", publication number CN117818259A, and the application date is September 2022.

There is a view that in addition to Tesla, there are many follow-up catalytic events for autonomous driving this year, and the era of intelligent driving is expected to open. In the future, we can also look forward to the Beijing Auto Show in April, the new cooperation model "Xiangjie" between BAIC and Huawei, and the follow-up release of the "Aojie" cooperation model between JAC and Huawei. This year, BYD will also release a number of lidar models, and plans to provide high-end intelligent driving options for more than 200,000 models in the future, and high-end intelligent driving for models of more than 300,000 as standard.

On the falling side, although many sectors are falling, here is a separate mention of the liquor sector.

At the opening of the morning, the liquor sector encountered Waterloo, from the high-end Maowulu to the low-end Shunxin agriculture, the liquor sector was full of green. The trigger for all this may have something to do with the "little composition".

According to the official account, the price of Moutai Feitian (bulk) fell below 2,600 yuan in 24 years.

China Merchants Food said that the batch price of Moutai fell below 2,600 yuan during the holiday, causing the market to worry about the demand for liquor, while the short-term sentiment was suppressed by real estate sales, and the capital was affected by the layout of cyclical stocks, causing a sharp pullback in the sector.

Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that liquor still shows the characteristics of "double low" expectations and valuations, and continues to grasp the expected inflection point. Standing at present, after nearly three years of trend adjustment in the liquor industry, the valuation bubble has basically been digested by performance. From a longitudinal point of view, a large number of targets within the industry have been in the "double low" position of expectation and valuation. From the perspective of probability, based on ROE, dividend potential and current industry valuation, the value of liquor allocation in 2024 is highlighted, and the expected inflection point should be actively grasped in the future.

Finally, let's talk about the short term.

Judging from the decline in the number of up limits and the number of down limits hitting a new high in recent times, it is clear that it is still in the ebb period. The height of the board has been reduced from 9 boards to 5 boards since last Tuesday.

However, it must be pointed out that in this wave of rebound that began on February 6, the market has always had a relatively timely recovery after suffering a sharp fall.

Take the recent March 27, for example, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points on that day, and the number of falling limits was as many as 75, but then it rebounded for three consecutive days.

This also means that if the law does not expire, when the index bottoms out again and short-term sentiment reaches the freezing point in the next few days, the game rebound will still have a good winning rate.

National Business Daily

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