Lavrov's arrival in Beijing was at a very special time, and before the Swiss peace summit, Putin had something to ask for. #军史观察团#
According to Russian media reports, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has arrived in Beijing on the 8th, and next, he will pay a two-day visit to China and hold talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. According to the statement previously released by the Russian Foreign Ministry, in addition to discussing the expansion of cooperation in various fields, the two sides will also exchange views on regional and international hot topics such as the Ukrainian crisis.
From two perspectives, the timing of Lavrov's visit to China is special.
First of all, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is currently visiting China, and her visit to Beijing coincides with Lavrov's visit to China. From a political point of view, the gathering of senior US and Russian officials in Beijing is naturally an unusual signal. What's more, during Yellen's trip to Guangzhou, there was another episode, when she met with Chinese officials on the 6th, she actually tied Sino-US trade issues to Sino-Russian cooperation in person, threatening China not to help Russia, otherwise she would face serious consequences.
According to Yellen, a very important reason why Russia has been able to maintain its economic operation and military production capacity under Western sanctions is that Russia and China have expanded trade, allowing Russia to benefit from the supplies supplied by China. The translation is probably that even normal cooperation between China and Russia is not allowed. Because the so-called dual-use goods mentioned by Yellen are too extensive, if we follow the requirements of the United States, it will be equivalent to asking China to reduce cooperation with Russia as much as possible. However, it is clear that this is contrary to China's long-standing assertion that Sino-Russian cooperation is not aimed at or restricted by third parties.
Of course, considering that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US has repeatedly used the so-called China to help Russia, Yellen's warning during her visit to China should have two purposes. First, the US wants to use such an excuse as a so-called "legitimate reason" to suppress Chinese companies, so that the US will have bargaining chips with China on issues such as increasing US debt. Second, the US hopes to use this to sow discord between China and Russia. Because there are also some voices in Russia that hope that China will provide more support to Russia, and the hype of the US side can amplify these noises to a certain extent.
Therefore, Lavrov's visit to China at this time to discuss cooperation is equivalent to directly telling the United States that Sino-Russian relations will never be affected by any noise. Moreover, such an interaction undoubtedly shows once again that there is no such thing as China helping Russia at all. Otherwise, the United States can come up with more "evidence" to retaliate against Lavrov's visit to China.
Secondly, the Swiss Peace Summit is expected to take place this summer. Although the Russian side is not optimistic about this ideological summit, with the recent visit of the Ukrainian foreign minister to India, the situation is starting to turn even more unfavorable for Russia.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in order to avoid falling into isolation, Russia has spent a lot of energy to win over India by exporting discounted oil. This means that if India changes its position to some extent, it will hurt Russia's diplomacy. It is undeniable that as India's general election is approaching, the Modi government's interaction with Ukraine at this time may also be motivated by political considerations, but if the West appropriately puts some pressure on India, the latter may not show its proximity to Ukraine by attending the Swiss peace summit and other means. For India in particular, it would also help them to make demands to Russia, for example, to agree to settle trade in their own currency.
Under such circumstances, the most direct and effective way for Russia to turn the situation around is to attend the Swiss Peace Summit. In this way, in front of Russian officials, not only India, but also many neutral countries participating in the meeting are unlikely to show too much targeting of Russia in order to avoid completely provoking Russia.
Therefore, we speculate that Lavrov's visit to China is likely to talk about the possibility of attending the Swiss peace summit. First, China has made it clear that we believe that no country should be excluded from the summit. Second, China's position on promoting peace talks has never changed. If Russia intends to sit down at the negotiating table with Ukraine, we are naturally willing to mediate.
In addition, considering that the Russian side has already expressed the hope that Putin will visit China for the first time after his re-election, it cannot be ruled out that Lavrov's visit to China will also be finalized with the Chinese side on the specific time of Putin's visit to China and some details of the high-level meeting between China and Russia. And, at this point, it may even be arranged between the Swiss Peace Summit.
Generally speaking, Lavrov's visit to China at this point in time fully shows that Russia attaches great importance to Sino-Russian relations. Therefore, no matter how much the US side warns of threats, it will not affect the healthy and stable development of Sino-Russian relations. On the Ukraine issue, China will not change its established position. We have reason to believe that Russia can also carry this clearly.