Source: Securities Times
During the Qingming holiday, the market ushered in two good news!
The first one comes from the central bank. At around 11 a.m. on April 7, the central bank suddenly announced that it would set up a re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, with a limit of 500 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.75%, to support scientific and technological innovation, technological transformation and equipment renewal.
The second comes from the property market. Recently, Nanchang, Ganzhou, Jiujiang, Xinyu and other places in Jiangxi Province have issued announcements to cancel the lower limit of the interest rate on the first home loan in stages, which will be implemented from April 1. In addition, Fuzhou, Jining, Qingdao, Yantai, Chaozhou and other cities have announced that they will phase out the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the first house from April. Some research institutions pointed out that the current real estate industry policy continues to relax, and the valuation of the sector is low, which is worth paying attention to.
Let's see the detailed report!
500 billion yuan of financial support
This morning, the central bank issued a news that in order to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Financial Work Conference, do a good job in the financial "five major articles", and implement the State Council's executive meeting on promoting a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in decision-making and deployment, the People's Bank of China has set up scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation re-loans to encourage and guide financial institutions to increase financial support for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas.
The central bank pointed out that the reloan amount for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation is 500 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of 1 year, which can be extended twice and extended for 1 year each time. The recipients include 21 financial institutions, including China Development Bank, policy banks, state-owned commercial banks, Postal Savings Bank of China, and joint-stock commercial banks. The establishment of re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation will help guide financial institutions to provide credit support to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises in the start-up and growth stages, as well as digital, intelligent, high-end and green technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas under the premise of independent decision-making and risk-bearing.
The central bank said that the re-lending of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation is the continuation of the policy of the original re-lending of scientific and technological innovation and special re-lending for equipment renovation, and the reform and improvement will be carried out on the basis of summarizing the experience of the two tools, supporting financial institutions to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services, and better meeting the financing needs of scientific and technological innovation, technological transformation and equipment renewal.
Based on the application of the enterprise, the financial institution shall make its own decision on whether to issue loans and the terms under which the loans shall be granted in accordance with the principle of assuming the risks provided by the competent authorities of the enterprise and with reference to the list of alternative enterprises and projects provided by the competent authorities of the industry. Financial institutions apply to the People's Bank of China for re-lending, and the People's Bank of China reviews the loan ledger and issues re-loans to the financial institution at 60% of the loan principal for loans that meet the requirements in the list of alternative enterprises or projects.
In addition, recently, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank held a regular meeting for the first quarter of 2024, which emphasized doing a good job in counter-cyclical adjustment, enriching and making good use of structural monetary policy tools, doing a good job in five major articles, and accelerating the development of new quality productivity. In addition, the central bank said it would focus on long-term interest rates.
Huatai Securities explained that the regular meeting of the central bank continued the policy tone since the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year, and added "first establish and then break" on the basis of seeking progress in stability and promoting stability with progress. At the same time, the regular meeting emphasized that counter-cyclical adjustment should be done, and it is expected that there will still be room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year, and the possibility of RRR cuts in the short term is greater. In terms of structural policies, while emphasizing the success of the five major articles, "promoting the accelerated development of new quality productive forces" and "increasing financial support for large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods" have been added. In addition, the central bank said that it will pay attention to the change in long-term yields, reflecting that the central bank may note the recent trend of rapid downward trend in long-end interest rates, which may guide long-end interest rates to fluctuate around the policy rate in the short term.
Western Securities said that the central bank stated at the first quarter regular meeting that it would increase the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced. Recently, the central bank's monetary policy has maintained the main tone of accommodative, but the market's policy expectations have diverged. From a medium-term perspective, there is still a probability that aggregate policies such as RRR cuts will be implemented in the future, and there is still room for deposit rates to be lowered.
The lower limit of the interest rate for the first home loan has been abolished in many places
Recently, there has been good news about the property market. At its regular meeting in the first quarter of 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China pointed out that it is necessary to accurately implement differentiated housing credit policies according to urban policies, better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Increase financial support for the "market + security" housing supply system, and strive to build a new model of real estate development.
At the same time, many places across the country announced the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate for the first home loan. Recently, the Information Office of the Jiangxi Provincial People's Government issued a document through its WeChat public account "Jiangxi Release" saying that Nanchang, Ganzhou, Jiujiang, and Xinyu have successively issued announcements to cancel the lower limit of the interest rate on the first home loan in stages, which will be implemented from April 1. In addition to the above-mentioned areas in Jiangxi, Fuzhou, Jining, Qingdao, Yantai, Chaozhou, Shanwei and other cities have also announced the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the first house.
On April 5, according to the "Jiangxi Release", Nanchang, Ganzhou, Jiujiang and other places all issued announcements saying that in order to support the demand for rigid and improved housing and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, in accordance with the work requirements of the city's policies, according to the "Notice of the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on Establishing a Long-term Mechanism for the Dynamic Adjustment of the Interest Rate Policy of Personal Housing Loans for the First Housing Newly Issued In the spirit of the document, it was decided to cancel the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the first housing in stages, which will be implemented from April 1, 2024.
The announcement pointed out that if the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings rose for three consecutive months month-on-month and year-on-year during the subsequent assessment period (from the end of the previous quarter to the second month of this quarter), the implementation of the national unified lower limit of the commercial personal housing loan interest rate for the first housing will be resumed from the next quarter.
In addition to the above four cities in Jiangxi, Fuzhou, Jining, Qingdao, Chaozhou, Shanwei and other cities have also announced that they will cancel the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the first housing in stages from April.
From April 1, Qingdao, Yantai, Jining and other places have phased out the lower limit of the interest rate on commercial personal housing loans for the first house. In addition, Chaozhou and Shanwei will also abolish the lower limit of the interest rate for the first home loan in their jurisdictions in stages, and the actual interest rate will be determined by commercial banks in accordance with the principles of marketization and legalization and independent consultation with borrowers. So far, 15 cities in Guangdong Province, including Dongguan, Foshan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Huizhou, Shantou, Jiangmen, Zhanjiang, Zhaoqing, Yangjiang, Qingyuan, Shaoguan, Yunfu, Chaozhou and Shanwei, have cancelled the lower limit of the interest rate for the first home loan.
From April 3, Fuzhou will gradually cancel the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first house. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first housing in the five urban districts of Fuzhou City has been adjusted from no less than 25% to no less than 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second housing has been adjusted from no less than 35% to no less than 30%. The criteria for determining the number of housing units shall be implemented in accordance with the original policy.
Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said: "No lower limit means that differentiated housing credit policies can be broken. The minimum interest rate for the first home is that it can break through the LPR-20. ”
At present, the latest LPR of more than 5 years is 3.95%, according to the previous minimum reduction of 20 basis points, the first home loan interest rate can reach 3.75%.
CITIC Securities believes that, on the whole, the lower limit of the mortgage loan interest rate for the first home is the product of the rapid rise in housing prices, which plays a role in inhibiting personal credit. In the long run, such demand-suppressing policies will gradually fade from the historical stage, and mortgage interest rates still have room to fall. CITIC Securities said that the policy is constantly working to encourage improving demand. Judging from the leading indicators of the market, it is judged that housing prices in core cities are expected to stabilize in the second quarter, and the industrial chain is also expected to enter a stage of structural recovery. Of course, this cycle is different from history, housing prices stabilize and the supply side continues to contract, and enterprises related to construction investment are still facing difficulties in business development. The focus of the real estate market has shifted to space consumption, that is, businesses related to housing circulation, operation, decoration and other businesses may show long-term competitiveness.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee set the tone for the new situation of real estate, the current first-tier cities are gradually relaxing the purchase restriction policy, and at the same time, the national mortgage interest rate has been lowered. At present, the real estate industry policy continues to relax, sales continue to bottom, and the valuation of the sector is low, which is worth paying attention to.
In addition, according to the data released by Kerry, in March, the TOP100 real estate companies achieved sales of 358.32 billion yuan, 92.8% month-on-month. The realized equity sales amounted to 285.31 billion yuan, 104% month-on-month. In March, the monthly sales of the top 100 real estate companies rose month-on-month, and Haitong Securities believes that in the context of continuous policy easing, market demand may usher in a local structural release, and the month-on-month improvement in key cities in April is expected to continue. The real estate industry policy has been significantly relaxed recently, the pattern has improved, the space has been opened, and the value of high-quality companies will be more prominent.