The development trend of "photovoltaic + energy storage" predicted by analysts is becoming a reality. What is the potential of the residential energy storage market? What are the challenges faced by users in installing energy storage, and how to solve the concerns of users installing energy storage? The industry is beginning to look for answers to these questions.
▲The picture shows the 4MW Zhixi Home rooftop photovoltaic project in Longyou County, Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province. Zhengtai Aneng/Courtesy photo
"About 8,000 watts of photovoltaic power are installed on the roof of my house, which normally generates 8 kilowatts of electricity per hour. If the amount of electricity generated exceeds the amount of electricity used at home at that time, it can be self-consumed. However, when the amount of electricity generated cannot meet the electricity consumption, all the electricity from the grid can be used. At the same time, all the electricity generated by photovoltaics is sold to the grid. From installation in 2018 to now, it feels good to use. Mr. Si has a single-family house in Chaoyang District, Beijing, and compared with ordinary residential buildings, Mr. Si's family consumes more energy, and the annual electricity bill is more than 10,000 yuan. In order to save electricity bills, Mr. Si chose to install a residential rooftop photovoltaic power generation system.
In the past six years, Mr. Si's family's electricity bill has decreased significantly. However, the installation of photovoltaics alone could not fully meet Mr. Si's needs. "With the help of the household rooftop photovoltaic power generation system, our family can save 9,000 yuan in electricity bills every year. However, when the immediate power generation cannot cover the electricity consumption at that time, the electricity of the grid can only be used completely, and self-power generation cannot be used first. To solve this problem, energy storage facilities need to be installed. However, the energy storage system is not cheap and its safety remains to be seen, so we have not installed it. ”
With the rapid development of distributed photovoltaics, the public's recognition and acceptance of them have been continuously improved, and more and more users with suitable conditions have spontaneously installed photovoltaic power generation systems. In the process of use, there is also a need for energy storage. The development trend of "photovoltaic + energy storage" predicted by analysts is becoming a reality. What is the potential of the residential energy storage market? What are the challenges faced by users in installing energy storage, and how to solve the concerns of users installing energy storage? The industry is beginning to look for answers to these questions.
The demand for distributed photovoltaic distribution and storage is gradually rising
Residential PV has become an important contributor to the new installed capacity of PV in mainland China. According to the data, in 2023, the new installed capacity of residential photovoltaic in mainland China will be 43.48 million kilowatts, a record high. Up to now, the cumulative installed capacity of household photovoltaics in mainland China has exceeded 100 million kilowatts.
The China Electricity Council predicts that the proportion of renewable energy power generation in mainland China will increase to 18.5% by 2025 and 33.4% by 2035. By 2035, two-thirds of the new energy installed capacity will be photovoltaic installations. In this context, the installed scale and power generation of household photovoltaics will also continue to increase, and its impact on the power grid will become more prominent. In order to solve the problems of volatility, randomness and intermittency of new energy power, and reduce the abandonment of household photovoltaic power, distribution and storage have become a "magic weapon" to ensure consumption.
For the power grid, there are many benefits to distribution and storage on the power supply side. Jia Yan, a postdoctoral fellow at the East China Survey, Design and Research Institute of PowerChina, said that the new energy storage is a high-quality flexible adjustment resource for the power grid, which can solve the problem of rapid fluctuation of new energy output, provide necessary system inertia support, and improve the controllability and flexibility of the power system.
In the eyes of industry insiders, in recent years, the cost of energy storage has dropped significantly, but there is still room for continued decline. If photovoltaic power generation and energy storage systems can achieve overall parity in the power field, with a cost advantage to compete with traditional energy, the combination of photovoltaic and storage will create a trillion-yuan market.
The latest research report of Bank of China Securities also shows that with the increase in the proportion of household photovoltaic power generation, the problem of consumption is becoming increasingly prominent, and the installation of household energy storage may become one of the effective solutions. In the long run, the development potential of household energy storage is greater.
Cost and safety are in the way
However, when it comes to installing energy storage, Mr. Si still has concerns: "The basic principle of energy storage should be the same as that of an electric vehicle's battery. Its disadvantage is that it is too expensive. The scale of household energy storage is determined by household electricity consumption. To meet the electricity needs of my home, I may need to configure 16 kWh of energy storage. According to the current market price of about 1 yuan/watt-hour, it takes nearly 20,000 yuan to install energy storage. When installing photovoltaics, I have spent more than 70,000 yuan, and I have not paid back so far, plus energy storage, the cost is even higher. ”
Mr. Si's situation is not unique. According to the survey, the high initial investment and long payback period are the primary problems encountered by users when installing household energy storage. "At present, the mainland residential electricity consumption implements a tiered electricity price system, that is, according to the electricity consumption of the segmented pricing, the level of electricity paid by residents with the increase of electricity consumption is a step-by-step increase, which is not conducive to the role of household energy storage in peak shaving. With the gradual improvement of the time-of-use electricity price mechanism, the allocation of energy storage by industrial and commercial users who implement the peak-valley time-of-use electricity price has good economy. An unnamed household energy storage practitioner told China Energy News, "What is more noteworthy is that in the case of no obvious economic advantages, safety issues have also become an important factor affecting the development of the household energy storage industry." ”
Safety is the bottom line of an industrial development. For the residential energy storage industry, its cost and safety can be said to complement each other and affect each other.
Liu Yong, secretary general of the energy storage application branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said in an interview with a reporter from China Energy News: "The household energy storage system involves a variety of energy sources, and it is necessary to partially transform the complex power system of household users. At the same time, follow-up operation and maintenance also have high requirements for the professional level of relevant personnel, and the actual use of energy storage may be difficult to maintain, time-consuming and labor-intensive. At present, the household energy storage system has not yet achieved simple installation and maintenance functions, and requires professional operators to operate. This not only increases the cost of household energy storage, but also easily leads to household users ignoring the maintenance and protection in the later stage due to complex operation. ”
Liu Yong further pointed out: "Most of the owners of household energy storage do not have professional knowledge about energy storage, and they are prone to problems such as capacity mismatch when choosing the battery model of the energy storage system, which may damage the battery life and then affect the user experience. At the same time, some of the electricity habits of household users may also damage the energy storage battery. ”
The potential safety hazards buried in operation and maintenance and improper use lead to accidents, which will undoubtedly hinder the healthy development of the household energy storage industry. According to public information, up to now, there have been many residential energy storage safety accidents around the world. For example, a family home in Adelaide, Australia, was once burned down due to a fire caused by household energy storage, causing the garage to burn down, and the economic loss was up to hundreds of thousands of dollars. A residential property in Hesse, Germany, was also caused by a voltage problem that caused a residential energy storage system to explode.
Gathering momentum for the "golden opportunity period"
When it comes to the future development of optical storage integration, industry insiders unanimously suggest that relevant standards should be improved as soon as possible, upstream and downstream enterprises should be strengthened, and a standardized and compatible product system should be promoted. At the same time, in order to further meet the demand for household energy storage and improve the economy, encouraging and supportive policies should also keep up in time.
At present, the standards for key components such as batteries and converters for household energy storage still use the standards of ordinary energy storage power stations. In this regard, Liu Yong suggested that on the basis of the industry standards for ordinary energy storage power stations, standards for household energy storage systems should be formulated, including design standards, installation standards, operation and maintenance standards, safety protection standards, fire protection design standards, and later recycling and disposal standards in subdivisions such as converters, battery management systems, and energy management systems. By improving the standard system of household energy storage, we will promote enterprises to improve product compatibility, ensure product quality, and improve product safety.
In addition, Liu Yong also emphasized that it is necessary to continuously improve the top-level design of the development of the household energy storage industry and lay a policy foundation for the rapid development of the industry. "In recent years, a series of policies have been introduced at the national level to support the development of the energy storage industry, but there is no clear top-level design and supporting policies in the subdivision of household energy storage. At present, energy storage-related subsidies are mainly concentrated in medium and large-scale energy storage power stations, and there is no subsidy policy for household energy storage. In addition to improving the subsidy policy, it is also necessary to improve the insurance mechanism and operation and maintenance management methods for household energy storage to provide multi-faceted support for the development of household energy storage. ”
The above-mentioned practitioner, who did not want to be named, also said: "The mainland residential electricity price mechanism is not a strong incentive for the development of the residential energy storage industry. At present, the state has implemented a time-of-use electricity price mechanism for large industrial users and industrial and commercial users in most regions, and plans to gradually widen the peak-to-valley electricity price spread, creating favorable conditions for the development of the energy storage industry. In order to protect people's livelihood, the state has suspended the implementation of the time-of-use electricity price mechanism for residents, agriculture and public welfare undertakings. In the future, with the continuous development of society, residential electricity consumption may also implement time-of-use electricity prices, or give priority to the pilot implementation of time-of-use electricity prices in high-end communities and key areas with electricity loads, so as to moderately narrow the peak-to-valley electricity price difference in most areas. At that time, the domestic residential energy storage industry will also usher in a golden opportunity period of rapid development. ”
Text丨Reporter Dong Zitong Sunan