The 2024 Qingming holiday has come to an end. According to the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there were 119 million domestic tourists traveling during the three-day holiday, an increase of 11.5% over the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and domestic tourists spent 53.95 billion yuan on travel, an increase of 12.7% over the same period in 2019.
Behind the boom of the "holiday economy" is the vitality and potential of the mainland consumer market. At the same time, pro-consumption policies are also increasing. As a key measure to promote consumption and stabilize investment this year, a new round of equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods ushered in intensive deployment. On April 2 and 3, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) successively held a symposium on large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and a meeting to promote large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods.
On April 3, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision issued a document to adjust auto loans and increase financial support for car trade-in scenarios. On April 7, the central bank set up a re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, with a quota of 500 billion yuan, to encourage and guide financial institutions to increase financial support for small and medium-sized technology-based enterprises, technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas.
Consumption is the main engine of economic growth. Since the beginning of the year, consumption has accelerated its recovery, especially driven by the holiday economy, and the potential of service consumption has been further released. Guo Tingting, Vice Minister of Commerce, said recently that looking forward to this year, with the implementation of various policies and measures to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, the favorable conditions and positive factors to support the momentum of consumption growth are increasing, the endogenous driving force of consumption growth is also continuing to increase, and new potential is constantly being released. The mainland consumer market is expected to continue to maintain a positive trend.
The holiday economy boosts the consumer market
The enthusiasm for tourism and consumption during this year's Qingming holiday is reflected in multiple sets of data. The agency believes that during this year's Qingming holiday, the consumption of many life service industries such as food, housing, transportation, travel, shopping and entertainment has improved, demonstrating the potential of domestic demand. At the same time, new consumption patterns and festivals created by various regions in combination with regional characteristics have achieved remarkable results in promoting consumption, and the consumer market is expected to continue to heat up in 2024.
According to the Ministry of Transport, during the Qingming Festival holiday, the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society will exceed 750 million, with an average daily increase of more than 250 million, an average daily increase of 56.1% over the same period in 2023 and an average daily increase of 20.9% over the same period in 2019. From the perspective of travel mode, the vast majority of people choose to travel by road, and the flow of people on the highway during the Qingming Festival is expected to exceed 690 million people.
Among them, the railway passenger volume is expected to be 49.743 million, with a daily average of 16.581 million passengers, an average daily increase of 75.3% over the same period in 2023 and an average daily increase of 20.7% over the same period in 2019. According to the data disclosed by the China Railway Group, on April 4, the national railway sent 18.536 million passengers, a new high for the number of passengers sent in a single day this year, and 13.307 million passengers were sent on April 5, which was also about 700,000 more than the estimated value of the China Railway Group.
The data of online travel platforms is even brighter. During the Qingming period, the number of bookings for major travel services on Fliggy's platform exceeded pre-pandemic levels, with domestic hotel bookings increasing by 159% year-on-year, route tour bookings increasing by 164%, and per capita travel spending also showing double-digit growth year-on-year.
According to Ctrip's data, during the holiday period, domestic local travel and peripheral travel orders increased by 211% and 350% year-on-year respectively, while the tradition of returning to the hometown to worship ancestors brought hot rural micro-tourism, and rural travel orders increased by 239% year-on-year. Qunar data shows that the number of bookings for popular domestic scenic spots during the Qingming holiday increased by 5 times year-on-year, and reservations for some hot scenic spots were sold out, and the number of air tickets booked in advance to small cities increased by 70% year-on-year.
Xiao Peng, a researcher at Qunar Big Data Research Institute, said that with the younger generation of the main force in the tourism market, tourists' choice of destinations is diversifying. An old street, a vegetable market, and a unique food may become the trigger for a city's "explosion". For the local area, if you want to convert traffic into consumption, you need to be honest and service-oriented, impress tourists with sincerity and better service, and achieve a double harvest of word-of-mouth and economic benefits.
The box office of the Qingming file also set a new record in film history. According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, as of 18:14 on April 6, the total box office of the Qingming file in 2024 (April 4th ~ 6th) exceeded 823 million yuan, the total number of moviegoers reached 20.6 million, and the total number of screenings reached 1.358 million, surpassing the box office results of the Qingming file in 2021 and refreshing the box office record of the Qingming file in Chinese film history.
The industry believes that since the Spring Festival, film consumption has obviously become the mainstream of national holiday consumption, and the Qingming file, which was slightly deserted compared with other festival files in the past, has also shown a vigorous trend this year, and has attracted many new films of different types and themes to compete for finalization. In the upcoming May Day, Dragon Boat Festival, summer and other traditional big schedules, the national film market is expected to usher in further prosperity and development.
Promote the intensive implementation of consumption combinations
The Ministry of Commerce has designated 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion". Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Commerce has promoted consumption with the "two-wheel drive" of policies and activities, and various consumption promotion activities have been launched one after another, and various policies and measures to promote consumption have also been introduced. Guo Tingting said that in the next stage, we will continue to do a good job in the "Consumption Promotion Year" series of activities, promote the trade-in of consumer goods, cultivate and expand new consumption, and improve the market and circulation system to promote the steady growth and continuous expansion of consumption, so as to better meet the needs of the people for a better life.
The State Council recently issued the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods".
On April 2, Zheng Shajie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, presided over the first symposium on large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and discussed and exchanged views with the heads of six private enterprises including Jingdong Group, Midea Group, Haier Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Yadea Technology, and GEM.
Six private entrepreneurs introduced in detail the production and operation of enterprises and the consideration of trade-in of consumer goods, and put forward specific opinions and suggestions. Entrepreneurs said that the consumer goods trade-in market is huge, the country's deployment is very targeted, related industries will usher in huge development opportunities, promising, the development prospects of enterprises are very confident, full of expectations.
Zheng Shajie responded to the specific policy suggestions put forward by the entrepreneurs one by one. He said that promoting large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods can not only promote consumption and investment, but also promote energy conservation and carbon reduction, increase advanced production capacity, and allow more high-quality durable consumer goods to enter residents' lives.
In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will pay close attention to the establishment of a working mechanism for equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, and work with relevant departments to give full play to the role of the main business entity, better play the guiding role of the government, play a good policy combination, strengthen scientific and technological support such as information and intelligent technology, and promote the trade-in of automobiles and home appliances and the "renewal" of home decoration and kitchen and bathroom, so as to truly do this practical thing well and do good things, so that enterprises and people can enjoy more sense of gain, and solidly promote the high-quality development of the mainland economy.
On the morning of April 3, Zheng Shajie presided over a meeting to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in to coordinate and promote the recent work. The meeting pointed out that the four major actions of policy renewal, equipment renewal, consumer goods trade-in, recycling and recycling, and standard improvement have made a good start. It is necessary to further refine and implement the goals and tasks in various fields, implement policies in a classified manner, advance them in an orderly manner, and strive to make breakthroughs in key areas and key links. Do a good job in recycling, do a good job in the whole chain of product and equipment scrapping, recycling, remanufacturing, and resource utilization, and promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in to form a closed loop. We will increase the support of various types of funds such as central investment, improve the implementation of tax incentives, optimize financial support, and ensure the implementation of various key tasks.
The Ministry of Commerce recently revealed that it is stepping up research and refinement measures, and on the premise of fully respecting the wishes of consumers, it will promote the replacement of automobiles with "energy", and gradually increase the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles and energy-saving vehicles; promote the replacement of household appliances with "intelligence", and promote the development of household appliances consumption in the direction of intelligence, greening and low-carbon; promote the "renewal" of home decoration and kitchen and bathroom, and support more stock houses and second-hand houses to implement old house decoration and partial transformation.
Automobile consumption is a key area to promote consumption and expand domestic demand. On April 3, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration jointly issued the Notice on Adjusting Relevant Policies for Auto Loans (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), clarifying that financial institutions can independently determine the maximum proportion of loans for self-use traditional power vehicles and self-use new energy vehicles based on the borrower's credit status and repayment ability under the premise of legal compliance and controllable risks.
Previously, the maximum proportion of loans for self-use traditional power vehicles and self-use new energy vehicles was 80% and 85% respectively. The "Notice" adjusts this ratio to be determined by the financial institution independently, and the maximum loan disbursement ratio can reach 100%, that is, the full amount of the car purchased is disbursed.
According to industry analysis, in accordance with the unified deployment of the State Council on large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, in order to promote car trade-in and support the promotion of automobile consumption, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the "Notice" to optimize the maximum proportion of auto loans and increase financial support for auto trade-in scenarios.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, said that the main highlights of the "Notice" lie in three aspects: first, it is clear that the proportion of self-use car loans (including fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles) is determined by financial institutions, up to 100%, which further improves the ability of residents to purchase cars with the help of personal car loans; Third, in view of the previous phenomenon of more fraudulent loans in the field of auto loans, it is required to strengthen the management of the whole process of auto loans, strictly prevent the misappropriation of loan funds for other purposes, and reduce the credit risk that may increase after the policy is relaxed.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told Yicai that this round of trade-in in a wider range and more fields will drive faster growth in household consumption, and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024 is expected to reach 6.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations. In the context of a sharply higher base, this year-on-year growth rate will be basically the same as that of the previous year, which means that the growth momentum of household consumption will be stronger this year.
(This article is from Yicai)