It's strawberry seedling season again, how much will I plant next year? I don't know if the price of strawberries will rise or fall in the second half of the year?
Strawberry prices
The price of strawberries from last year to the present, I am afraid it is the worst year in recent years, I have never seen such a market, many growers directly choose not to do this year, lying flat.
Recently, there has been an increase in the number of greenhouses transferred.
Transfer of strawberry planting greenhouses
Transfer of strawberry planting greenhouses
In fact, it is not only strawberries that have reduced prices, but also cherries, mangosteens, durians, strawberries, and domestic cherries, all of which have chosen to reduce prices without exception to increase sales.
Durian
Under the current economic situation, people's consumption concept has been downgraded, and the sales of high-grade fruits are facing difficulties. Although it is a bit helpless to adopt the method of exchanging price for quantity, it is also reasonable, after all, these high-end fruits are not necessities of life.
The fresh strawberry market in mainland China is mainly based on internal circulation, and the import and export volume are relatively small, so the impact of import and export on the price and sales of strawberries is limited. Consumption and price are closely related to domestic economic development, showing that if the economic development is good, strawberry sales will increase simultaneously, otherwise consumption will decline and prices will fall.
If the economy remains sluggish in the second half of the year, people will pay more attention to practicality and necessity when choosing consumer goods, and those who are originally consumers of high-end fruits will also reduce their purchases of such fruits. For many price-sensitive consumers, even their favorite high-end fruits may be forced to cut back on their purchases or abandon them outright due to budget constraints, opting for relatively lower-priced fruits such as pears, oranges and apples. As a result, sales of high-end fruits, including strawberries, declined.
This is some of the situation on the consumer side, let's go back and look at the production situation.
In 2020, the planting area was 1.974 million mu, and the output was 3.3268 million tons. By 2022, the strawberry planting area will reach 2.2118 million mu, and the output will be close to 4 million tons. Specific data for last year are not yet available, but according to the trend, the acreage and production are not decreasing, but are on a rapid upward trend.
Chart: Trend of strawberry planting area in China
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics Image source: Yunguo Industry Brain
The sharp increase in planting area has brought about a sharp increase in market supply, essentially breaking the objective law of "scarce is expensive", making the market change from seller-led to buyer-led. In addition, the origin directly reaches consumers through e-commerce, making prices more transparent.
By analyzing market trends and changes in consumer demand, in the face of the economic downturn, the price of strawberries and other high-end fruits will gradually become "close to the people" in the second half of the year. If there are no surprises, it is expected that this year's market will continue until the market and consumers find a new balance.