Reporter: Yang Jian Editor: Peng Shuiping
(1) Important market news
1. The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow up 0.80% and down 2.27% for the week, the Nasdaq up 1.24% and down 0.80% for the week, and the S&P 500 up 1.11% and down 2.27% for the week. Most of the large technology stocks rose, Netflix and Meta rose more than 3%, Amazon and Nvidia rose more than 2%, Microsoft and Google rose more than 1%, Tesla fell more than 3%, and Intel fell more than 2%. Chinese concept stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 0.18% and up 0.37% for the week. iQiyi rose more than 4%, Tencent Music rose more than 3%, and Full Bang and Futu Holdings rose more than 1%.
2. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 303,000 in March, estimated to increase by 200,000, and the previous value was an increase of 275,000. International precious metals futures closed sharply higher, COMEX gold futures closed up 1.76% at $2349.1 per ounce, hitting a new record high, up 4.95% for the week, and COMEX silver futures closed up 1.3% at $27.6 per ounce, up 10.77% for the week. Spot gold rose as high as $2,330, hitting an intraday record high for six consecutive trading days and rising more than 1.8% in the day.
3. International oil prices rose slightly, the U.S. oil May contract rose 0.16% to $86.73 per barrel, up 4.28% weekly, and the Brent oil contract for June rose 0.23% to $90.86 per barrel, up 4.44% weekly. Most European stocks closed lower, with Germany's DAX 30 down 1.30%, Britain's FTSE 100 down 0.81%, France's CAC 40 down 1.11%, and Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.05%.
(2) Macro news
1. According to central bank data, China's gold reserves were 72.74 million ounces at the end of March and 72.58 million ounces at the end of February, marking the 17th consecutive month of increasing gold reserves. China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,245.657 billion in March, compared with $3,225.817 billion in the previous month.
2. The central bank has set up re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation to encourage and guide financial institutions to increase financial support for small and medium-sized technology-based enterprises, technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas. The reloan amount for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation is 500 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.75% and a term of 1 year, which can be extended twice and each time for a period of 1 year. The establishment of re-loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation will help guide financial institutions to provide credit support to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises in the start-up and growth stages, as well as digital, intelligent, high-end and green technological transformation and equipment renewal projects in key areas under the premise of independent decision-making and risk-bearing.
(3) Institutional perspectives
Hu Mohan, manager of Mingze Investment Fund: The PMI of the manufacturing and service industries are back in the expansion range, which is a positive signal for the medium and long-term economic outlook. As we enter the earnings disclosure period, the market performance is still relatively stable, indicating that investors have fully anticipated the pressure on performance in 2023. Of course, we still cannot rule out that the market will still be affected to a certain extent during the performance disclosure period, but based on the recovery of economic data and strong policy support, it is expected that the impact will be relatively limited. In the short term, the market may be volatile due to the results disclosure, but this short-term consolidation is not expected to change the long-term upward trend of the market. Investors should remain patient and pay attention to sectors and individual stocks with good performance support and growth potential to grasp medium- to long-term investment opportunities. We are still optimistic about the performance of technology growth stocks, especially in the fields of AI+ industry chain, humanoid robots, starlink communication, and innovative drugs. In addition, as the commodity cycle turns around, resource commodities such as copper may present new investment opportunities.
Zhongrui Heyin: The market has rebounded sharply in the past two months, and we believe that it is mainly driven by variables at the transaction level, supplemented by macro and industry levels. The changes in domestic macro and domestic and foreign liquidity that we are more focused on are still not obvious at present, so we still define this round of the market as a rebound. Looking ahead, positive factors are accumulating in the current market, and the domestic economic data released in March has also improved, but the overall market confidence is still low. We remain cautious and continue to wait for the resonance of macro data and market confidence to improve in the short-term game of following the trend. At present, the market is mainly driven by policies and industrial innovation events in the short term, and macro data is still needed to be paid attention to in the medium and long term. On the one hand, we follow the game opportunities that the market continues to provide under policy and industrial innovation, including AI, new quality productivity, intelligent driving, etc., and on the other hand, we wait for the market to emerge based on the certainty of improving fundamentals.
Behind the high and low cut of the market, it means that the current market is not confident to do long, there is a lack of incremental funds to enter the market, and the decline of growth stocks such as high-level AI will also affect the money-making effect of the market, thereby putting pressure on the market to rise. In addition, after the holiday, A-shares officially entered the intensive disclosure period of the first quarter, and the market may become more cautious based on concerns about the risk of first-quarter performance. In the short term, A-shares may face shocks and adjustments, but there may not be much room for adjustment. As the macro economy continues to improve, and considering the continuous accumulation of various positive factors, it is expected that the market is expected to start the next round of market after the financial report data and expectations are clear. In terms of sectors, in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the domestic economic recovery, we can pay attention to varieties related to price increase expectations, such as non-ferrous metals, new energy materials, panels, chemicals and other resource sectors, as well as pork and other consumer sectors.
(4) Industry nuggets
1. On April 5, Samsung said in its preliminary financial report that its operating profit in the first quarter of this year soared by 931% year-on-year thanks to the rebound in memory prices. Operating profit in the first quarter of this year was 6.6 trillion won (about $4.9 billion), up from 640 billion won in the same period last year. This also set Samsung's highest operating profit since the third quarter of 2022. First-quarter revenue will increase 11% year-on-year to 71 trillion won. Samsung's optimistic earnings forecast is mainly due to the rebound in memory prices. Last year, consumers cut back on electronics purchases in the face of high inflation, causing a downturn, and now with the boom in the field of artificial intelligence, the demand for large amounts of memory has led to a resurgence in the market. At the same time, in order to catch up in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, Samsung is working to ramp up its HBM production. This type is especially suitable for NVIDIA graphics processors for AI calculations. Concept stocks include Shannon Xinchuang, Qiangqiang New Materials, BIWIN Storage, etc.
2. As the electric vehicle industry faces a slowdown in overall demand and competition from other brands is becoming more and more fierce, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced a "blockbuster news" on Friday (5th). Musk announced in a post on X: "Tesla will release a driverless taxi (Robotaxi) product on August 8. It is understood that the product is designed to use self-driving technology to enable Tesla vehicles to autonomously pick up and drop off passengers and collect fares. Musk had previously predicted that in the future driverless taxis would be more common than human-driven cars. After the news was released, Tesla's stock price rose 5.1% in after-hours trading, and now how to fight a beautiful "turnaround" for Tesla has become Musk's biggest concern. People's expectations for fully autonomous vehicles have been key to Tesla's high valuation. Concept stocks include ArcherMind Technology, Dongtian Micro, Shenzhen City Exchange, etc.
3. On April 7, the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a production license for EHang's EH216-S unmanned manned aircraft system in Guangzhou. The reporter noted that the aircraft from production to commercial operation requires a total of three types of certificates, namely type certificate (TC), airworthiness certificate (AC), production license (PC), last year EH216-S has obtained the type certificate and standard airworthiness certificate. The issuance of this production license means that the EH216-S has become the world's first manned unmanned eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) model to obtain the "three major passes" for airworthiness, and has the qualification for mass production, laying the foundation for large-scale commercial operation in an all-round way. Earlier, EH216-S has been on sale on Taobao at a price of 2.39 million yuan. Concept stocks include Blue Ocean Huateng, Hangxin Technology, Guanglian Aviation, etc.
National Business Daily
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