"Multiple accounts were cleared in the morning. The total loss is about 1000w. This single purchase is a bit big. A Vanke shareholder, a snowball V with 260,000 followers, said.
Vanke used to be the "dividend king" in the A-share market, and many old shareholders of value investment regarded holding Vanke as a pension stock like holding Moutai. They believe that people's need for alcohol and housing is endless.
Shareholders: Vanke will be alone
Since the beginning of 2021, the real estate industry has been thundering one after another, and several well-known developers such as Evergrande, Country Garden, and Sunac have all had problems. At the same time, more than 400 real estate enterprises declare bankruptcy every year. However, many Vanke shareholders still firmly believe that Vanke is a state-owned enterprise controlled by Shenzhen Metro and a real estate company with stable operation, so Vanke can exist independently of the entire real estate industry.
In fact, this idea is just wishful thinking. In 2023, both Vanke's offshore dollar bonds and domestic bonds plummeted, reportedly downgraded because the company was unable to repay its maturing debts. At that time, Vanke's statement to the outside world was that it had encountered "short selling" by foreign capital.
At that time, the price of Vanke's A-shares was still 14 yuan, and now it has fallen by nearly 50%. This also led to huge losses for Vanke shareholders. As of the first quarter of 2024, the number of Vanke shareholders exceeded 550,000. A large number of shareholders are loyal fans of Vanke, they believe in Wang Shi's entrepreneurial experience, believe in Vanke's bold words, he was the first to stand up and say that "Vanke wants to live".
No dividends, being reported, Vanke's dream is broken
However, after the release of the first quarter earnings report, Vanke announced that it would no longer pay dividends, which completely shattered the confidence of long-term shareholders, although they endured Vanke's long decline for five years, but still believed that Vanke could pay dividends, reduce losses, and at the same time Vanke could survive.
At the beginning of April 2024, a company in Yantai that Vanke has cooperated with for ten years issued an open letter exposing Vanke's tax evasion, misappropriation of funds, usury, and embezzlement of corporate assets by executives, and even named Vanke Yu Liang as suspected of committing crimes.
At the same time, the decline in real estate sales has not stopped. According to the data, Vanke's sales from January to March were 57.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.9%. Poly, which ranked first, fell 44.7% year-on-year, and China Shipping, which ranked second, fell 27.9% year-on-year. The reason for the slightly smaller decline in China Overseas is that a luxury property has been launched, which has boosted the total sales.
Vanke's share price plummeted again, after defaulting on domestic and foreign debts, being exposed by partners, and the performance in the first quarter continued to decline by more than 3%.
One is prosperous, and one is lost
For the Vanke thunderstorm, I have done an analysis a long time ago. The real estate industry is both prosperous and loss-making, and Vanke will not be left alone. Because Vanke's business model is the same as that of any developer, that is, relying on bank loans and bond issuance to obtain funds, acquire land to build houses, and rely on the pre-sale amount of buyers to repay interest, so as to make the entire capital chain circulating.
Nowadays, the entire property market has fallen by more than 3 percent, and there is a problem with this link of buyers, which means that the debts of real estate companies will inevitably default, and unfinished buildings will inevitably appear. In addition, in order to supervise the sales funds and prevent the unfinished, developers have been unable to embezzle the funds for the purchase of houses, resulting in a more stretched capital chain.
Therefore, the debt default problem of Evergrande, Country Garden, and Sunac will definitely happen to Vanke. With such a simple logic, many old shareholders can't even understand it in advance, and still wishfully think that Vanke is an exception. This way of thinking of carving a boat to seek a sword is really shocking.
The owner of the developer has long since run away with his pockets full
In fact, many developer bosses have long understood this game of inevitable debt default and made plans in advance. Evergrande Xu Jiayin is an understanding person. Recently, the procuratorate found that Evergrande inflated revenue, costs and profits in 2019 and 2020 to issue bonds, which was suspected of fraud.
In 2019, the inflated profit was 40.7 billion yuan, accounting for 63.3% of the total profit in the current period, and in 2020, the inflated profit was 51.2 billion yuan, accounting for 86.88% of the total profit. Issuing bonds at high prices by inflating profits. As a major shareholder accounting for more than 30% of the shares, the Xu Jiayin family has withdrawn at least 200 billion yuan in cash from Evergrande over the years.
The bankruptcy of Evergrande Real Estate could not prevent Xu Jiayin and Evergrande executives from making their own fortunes, and Xu Jiayin's wife divorced and fled China before the East Window incident, and not long ago even sued her son for property.
Similarly, Country Garden has long smelled the gunpowder of the real estate industry. Yang Guoqiang's family received a huge amount of money through dividends, and at the same time transferred more than 6 billion yuan of shares to Yang Guoqiang's fund before the thunderstorm in Country Garden, which is considered to be an early transfer of assets.
Pick-up man, deserve it!
2019 and 2020 are the last crazy years of real estate, how many people are buying houses in these two years, and buying at the highest price? Many people shouted that Shenzhen's housing prices will inevitably surpass Hong Kong and become the world's first.
At this time, real estate bosses are quietly cashing out, fraudulently, and transferring assets. These high-ranking pick-up heroes, I don't know how they feel now?
For real estate, the heart of the rock has done hundreds of articles, see the tag #property market for details, and predict the current outcome in advance. But when the market is crazy, the rabble doesn't think seriously, they rush in blindfolded, whether it's buying a house or buying a property stock. Now, they have all eaten the bitter fruit of madness and brainlessness, which can only be said to be deserved.
Do you still remember their famous sayings? Real estate is a pillar industry, and the state will not let them fail! Vanke is a state-owned enterprise, and the state will definitely save it. Finally, I wish these home buyers, as well as the 550,000 Vanke shareholders and millions of real estate stock holders, good luck.