Under the great tide of economic globalization, countries around the world have paid more attention to trade issues.
In the past two years, countries around the world have improved the competitiveness of their products and accelerated the trade and export of commodities in order to achieve a more advantageous trade position in the international market.
On the one hand, this does help to enhance international influence, and on the other hand, it also helps to enhance the role of foreign trade in promoting the domestic economy.
In this case, the global monetary payment system may also gain momentum, and Swift has recently released its share of global monetary payments for February this year.
In terms of data, the US dollar accounted for 46 percentage points, while the yuan hit a new 4-month low.
1. Update on the share of global currency payments
At the end of March this year, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication announced the share of global monetary payments in February this year.
Looking at the overall ranking, it seems that the change is not much, and the US dollar still leads the way, accounting for 46.56 percentage points of the payment share.
In second place is the euro with 23.25 percentage points.
As for the pound sterling, which is in third place, it reached 6.9 percentage points.
In fourth and fifth place are the renminbi and the Japanese yen, with the renminbi accounting for 4% of global payments, while the yen is 3.73 percentage points.
Let's take a look at the data changes in these currencies and the underlying factors behind them.
First of all, let's talk about the yen, in fact, the share of the yen in global currency payments has been relatively sluggish throughout last year.
After the year began, the yen continued its previous trend.
According to the data in January this year, the global share of the yen was only 3.56 percentage points, and in February this year, it increased slightly.
This may be due to the fact that Japan's foreign trade was more concentrated in February.
As for the renminbi, which ranks fourth, in fact, its performance last year was still quite expected, and the proportion of payment shares has been increasing.
In January of this year, although it was said to have dropped slightly, it also reached 4.51 percentage points, but the proportion of data has dropped significantly since February, which can not help but make people feel a little confused.
The pound in third place and the euro in second place did not change much, with 7.1 percentage points and 23.02 percentage points respectively in January.
After entering February, the relevant data did decline slightly, of course, this is a relatively normal phenomenon.
After all, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the overall European market, and the energy trade that Europe was able to reach with Russia before is now gradually closed under the policy restrictions of the United States.
A lot of trade in euros and pounds is no longer there, and it is normal for the share of payments to decline.
2. The US dollar is still as high as 46%
Next, let's take a look at the dollar, in fact, after entering this year, the performance of the dollar is still relatively stable.
In January, the share of the US dollar in global payments reached 46.64 percentage points.
In February this year, the relevant data also improved, rising to 46.56 percentage points, accounting for half of the global payment share.
In fact, the share of US dollars in payments has remained above 45% in the past year, which is also very puzzling.
After all, in the past two years of development, the process of de-dollarization in all countries of the world has been accelerating.
However, what is the reason for the increase in the share of the US dollar in global payments?
On the whole, countries around the world have accelerated the process of de-dollarization in order to prevent the dollar from entering the markets of other countries and promote the outflow of high-quality assets from other countries to achieve dollar harvest.
However, this does not mean that the U.S. trade market has lost its original position, and for other countries, the U.S. goods and trade market are still quite attractive.
You know, the United States has established the hegemony of the dollar back in the last century.
This also makes the US dollar have a high influence in the international market and is widely used in finance and international trade.
However, in the past two years of development, due to the epidemic and inflation, the shock to the US market has increased the threat of the dollar.
As a result, countries around the world are accelerating the process of de-dollarization, but the dollar can continue to enjoy market dividends and is deeply rooted in the global economic and financial system, and it is not so easy to remove it.
The most important thing is that in the past two years of development, the US dollar has established an independent and perfect settlement system and payment system.
This also makes the use of the dollar more convenient and efficient, and it seems not so easy for countries that are used to using the dollar to reduce the share of the dollar in international trade payments.
In such a situation, the dollar can naturally remain relatively stable.
Of course, from a development point of view, the situation of the US dollar is not optimistic, and the de-dollarization process of various countries will continue to accelerate, thereby reducing the share of the US dollar in international trade.
In addition, due to the relevant trade restrictions of the United States in the past two years, in fact, many countries have been miserable and intend to bypass the dollar system and establish a new currency settlement system.
Considering these factors, after a certain period of operation, the share of the US dollar in global payments will definitely continue to decline, and it is only a matter of time before it loses its original position.
3. The RMB hit a 4-month low, what's going on
Judging from the corresponding data, the share of the US dollar in global payments is still very high, but the performance of the RMB may not be satisfactory.
In addition to the share of disbursements, which fell by 4 percentage points, it also hit a new low in 4 months, breaking the corresponding record.
What is more noteworthy is that the month-on-month data in January this year fell by 20.47 percentage points, and the gap with the yen is gradually narrowing.
For such a situation, many people are very puzzled, is it possible that in the entire international market, the RMB has become more and more unimportant?
Will the renminbi return to its position as the world's fifth-largest payment currency? Naturally, this situation is unlikely.
In December last year, and in January and February this year, the share of RMB payments has indeed been declining.
But the root cause of the decline may be due to the country's biggest festival of the year, the Spring Festival.
Because during the Spring Festival, it is natural to need a holiday, although in our eyes those supermarkets and small commodity markets are still operating, but the international economic and trade docking has entered an off-season.
Under such circumstances, the docking between mainland enterprises and overseas markets is no longer as frequent as before, and it is normal for the proportion of RMB payments in overseas markets to decrease.
After the Spring Festival holiday, those domestic export-oriented enterprises will naturally focus on business in overseas markets, and the proportion of RMB payments in the world will naturally rebound.
Excluding this factor, in fact, from the perspective of development, there is still huge room for improvement in the proportion of RMB payments in the global market.
After all, in the past two years of development, the mainland's trade position in the global market has become higher and higher, and the export volume and import data of related products have been continuously increasing.
This also shows that there are more and more overseas countries doing business with our country, which also helps to promote the internationalization of the renminbi, and even establish a new settlement system based on the renminbi.
Not to mention, in the past two years, our country is rapidly popularizing the application of digital yuan.
Compared with the traditional current currency, the digital yuan itself has greater advantages in terms of circulation speed, currency multiplier and spatial and temporal distribution.
In the process of international trade, the popularization and use of digital yuan will also help improve the accuracy of operation.
It can reduce the dependence of the transaction link on the account, and create a more favorable space for the liquidity and controllable anonymity of cash.
From this point of view, the popularization and use of digital yuan will help promote the internationalization of RMB and increase the proportion of RMB in global payment quotas.
This trend will continue to grow over time.
Judging from the trade factors and the popularization of the digital yuan, the proportion of the RMB in the total global trade payment will continue to increase, and it is even expected to surpass the euro and the US dollar to become one of the most important market settlement currencies.
epilogue
In February this year, the US dollar still led the way in the share of global currency payments, maintaining a figure of around 46 percentage points.
This also makes for a re-examination of the role of the dollar in the global monetary payment system, and it seems that the process of de-dollarization in the world and the problems that are now emerging in the US market have not led to a decline in the dollar's position.
However, this is just a cyclical performance, and it is believed that the share of US dollar payments will definitely decline as time goes by.
In stark contrast to the US dollar, the renminbi did fall sharply in February's share of the renminbi, hitting a four-month low.
However, from a development perspective, the renminbi's share of total global trade payments certainly has more room to rise.
After all, China has become the world's largest importer and exporter of goods, with increasing international influence, more frequent trade with other countries, and the gradual popularization and advancement of the digital yuan, the yuan is certainly expected to surpass the euro and the dollar.
Resources:
"Global Currency Payments Share Update, US Dollar 46%, RMB Hit 4-Month Low, What's Going On?"
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