Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria has further exacerbated regional tensions. The New York Times on April 5, citing Iranian officials, revealed that all of Iran's armed forces had been put on high alert and had decided that a direct response to the attack on the embassy must be made.
Senior U.S. government officials have previously said the U.S. is on "high alert" in response to Iran's retaliatory action that could be launched as soon as next week. Some senior US military commanders believe that Iran does want to take advantage of the current crisis, but does not intend to ignite a broader regional conflict.
Analysts: Iran will retaliate personally
On April 5, large-scale demonstrations on the "Quds City Day" were held in many parts of the country. Tens of thousands of people gathered in the center of Tehran, Iran's capital, to hold up Iranian and Palestinian flags to protest Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip. According to the report, the Iranian side vowed to retaliate against the Israeli attack at a public funeral held for the victims of the attack on the 5th, although the time and form of the retaliation have not been disclosed, but it has intensified the outside world's concern about the outbreak of a direct war between Iran and Israel.
"Our warriors will punish the Zionist regime. Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said at Tehran's funeral, "We warn that any action of any enemy against our sacred system will be reciprocated, and that the art of the Iranian nation is the power to destroy the empire." ”
On April 5, Tehran held a funeral to mourn the seven Iranian military commanders killed during Israeli airstrikes in Syria on April 1 / The New York Times
According to two unnamed Iranian officials, Iran has now ordered all armed forces to go on high alert, deciding that it must respond to Israeli attacks through direct action as a deterrent.
Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Said Irawani, said on the 4th that he would be interviewed by the US news media "after Iran's response to Israel."
The New York Times noted that there was a precedent for Iran to take a tough back. Four years ago, after the United States killed Soleimani, the commander-in-chief of the Quds Force, Iran fired a large number of missiles at US military bases in Iraq, injuring more than 100 US soldiers. According to the report, after the outbreak of the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, although Iranian-backed armed groups have launched multiple attacks on Israel, Iran has been careful to avoid direct conflicts that could lead to a full-scale war.
U.S. military analysts assess that Iran is more likely to retaliate in person than to allow the militant groups it supports to attack, as it has done in the past. An Israeli defense official said Israeli analysts had come to the same conclusion that Iran would act in person, rather than through Allah. According to the New York Times, the final decision to attack Israel is in the hands of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei, who also ordered retaliation against US troops in Iraq in 2020.
Iranian army units fire missiles during a military exercise at Mokran Beach in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran, December 31, 2022. (EPA/Iranian Army Office)
Israeli Army suspends vacation of combat units, and the United States is on "high alert"
On April 1, local time, the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus, Syria, was hit by an airstrike, and the consulate building attached to the embassy was "razed to the ground", killing more than a dozen people, including seven Iranian military personnel. The Israeli army declined to comment on Syria's designation of Israel as carrying out the attack, but according to the New York Times, four Israeli officials, who did not want to be named, admitted that Israel had carried out the attack. The Pentagon also said on the 2nd that the preliminary assessment of the US side showed that Israel carried out the air strikes.
Iranian media say that Israel has killed at least 18 Iranian Quds Force servicemen in the past few months, but the airstrikes are extraordinary, not only because a large number of high-ranking officials have been killed, but also because diplomatic institutions are generally not affected by the conflict. But Israeli officials insist that the Iranian embassy in Syria is a Revolutionary Guard base and therefore a legitimate target.
Asgar Zarei, an expert on Iranian foreign policy affairs, believes that an important reason for Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria is to divert global public opinion from its "crimes" in the Gaza Strip.
In the wake of the airstrikes on the Iranian embassy in Syria, Israel is on high alert for a possible Iranian response. On the 4th local time, the Israeli military issued a statement saying that in view of the current situation, the Israeli army decided to suspend the vacation of all combat units. An Israeli government spokesman said Israel was prepared for "every scenario" and would respond "with force" to any attempt to attack Israel.
On the same day, global positioning system (GPS) services in Tel Aviv, Israel, and many places in central China were disrupted, and some Israelis said that they could not use location and navigation services. IDF spokesman Hagari confirmed later in the day that the Israeli army began jamming GPS signals in parts of Israel that day, saying that the move was to strengthen the defense against missiles and drones and other guided weapon attacks.
The consulate building of the Iranian embassy in Syria has completely collapsed / Visual China
CNN reported on the 5th, citing a senior U.S. government official, that the United States is on "high alert" for the attack on the Iranian embassy building in Syria and is actively preparing to respond to a "major" attack on Israel or U.S. assets in the region that Iran may launch as soon as next week, but they are not yet clear when and how Iran plans to retaliate.
According to CBS, U.S. officials said that the U.S. side has obtained intelligence that Iran may use a large number of "Shahed" drones and cruise missiles in retaliatory attacks, and may attack Israeli diplomatic facilities equivalent to the Iranian embassy, presumably between now and the end of Ramadan next week.
"From a military point of view, my biggest concern is, is whether this will lead to some kind of consequence, such as regional escalation," Glynkewich, the top commander of the U.S. Air Force in the Middle East, told a panel of defense experts in Washington this week. We are watching the developments very carefully, understanding what the Iranians are saying and how they intend to respond. ”
"I do think that the Iranians have no intention of provoking a broader regional conflict. "They do want to take advantage of the current crisis, but they're not interested in going to war with Israel, the United States, or anyone else." ”
This article is an exclusive manuscript of Observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.