As 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions across the country gradually release the data on permanent residents in 2023 (except Heilongjiang and Tibet), a clear and concise population flow map is presented in front of us.
The results are embarrassing, 19 of the 29 provinces have a collective negative population growth, and all six of the central provinces have fallen:
At the end of 2023, the permanent population of Henan Province was 98.15 million, a decrease of 570,000 from the end of the previous year;
The permanent population of Hunan Province was 65.68 million, a decrease of 360,000 from the end of the previous year;
The permanent population of Anhui Province was 61.21 million, a decrease of 60,000 from the end of the previous year;
The permanent population of Hubei Province was 58.38 million, a decrease of 60,000 from the end of the previous year;
The permanent population of Jiangxi Province was 45,150,100, a decrease of 129,700 from the end of the previous year;
The permanent population of Shanxi Province was 34,659,900, a decrease of 153,600 from the end of the previous year.
Importantly, most of the negative population growth in the central provinces is caused by cross-regional migration (mechanical growth):
Last year, Henan Province had 695,000 births and 787,000 deaths, a decrease of 92,000 in the natural population and a net outflow of 478,000.
Hunan Province had 395,000 births and 598,000 deaths, a decrease of 203,000 in natural population and a net outflow of 157,000.
Jiangxi Province had 295,000 births and 333,000 deaths, a decrease of 38,000 and a net outflow of 91,700.
Shanxi Province has a population of 213,100 births, 291,100 deaths, a decrease of 78,000 natural population, and a net outflow of 75,600.
To put it bluntly, after the epidemic, the situation of peacocks flying southeast is still intensifying.
If you compare the data of the Seven Censuses, you will clearly feel that the gap between the East and the Middle East in terms of population change has been formed.
Why, if you look at the Qipu data, there are only six provinces with a decrease in permanent population between 2010 and 2020: Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and at first glance all of them are northern cities.
Looking at the present, it is not uncommon for the southern provinces to experience negative population growth. After getting rid of the stereotype of the north-south gap in terms of demographic change, the gap between the east and the middle began to emerge in more detail.
You can see that in the data released by various provinces, the permanent population of Zhejiang increased by 500,000, Guangdong by 490,000, Hainan by 159,800, Shanghai by 115,600, Jiangsu by 110,000, etc.
Obviously, on the one hand, the eastern provinces are riveting and sucking up the population, and on the other hand, there is a massive population loss.
So, I think the biggest reason for such a huge cross-regional migration of people, including the central region and even the northern region, is employment.
To put it simply, you will make more money in a big city than in your hometown.
According to the "Talent Flow and Salary Trend Report in the First Half of 2023" released by Liepin Big Data Research Institute, from the perspective of resume delivery, the number of talent delivery in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen ranks among the top three.
The reason why they are desperately squeezing into first-tier or even new first-tier cities is that the employment environment and policies of various cities will be better than their hometowns.
For example, according to the "2023 Global Unicorn List", the number of unicorn companies in Guangzhou has soared from 7 in 2017 to 22 in 2022, including cross-border e-commerce giants Shein, ByteDance, Ant Group, DJI, etc.
For example, Hangzhou directly spends money to attract talents: fresh graduates with a bachelor's degree or above will be given living subsidies according to their degrees. If you are renting a house, you will be paid 10,000 yuan a year, there are countless business plans, and the threshold for settling down is directly lowered to a junior college.
The more economically developed the region, the more relaxed the requirements for job seekers, and at the same time, the scope of employment and salary will be much higher than in their hometown.
If you are looking for a job normally, it is easy to be attracted by Hangzhou, which has a richer industrial structure and a better employment environment.
If you are you, you may also want to visit the big city.
Of course, don't think that the collective negative population growth of the six central provinces is really outflowing, it would be too superficial. With this introduction, it also reveals two signals behind it:
On the one hand, the population is concentrating in their respective provincial capitals.
Zhengzhou, the provincial capital of Henan, which had the largest outflow of population last year, has seen its permanent population rise over the years. According to the Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, from 2020 to 2022, the permanent population of Zhengzhou was 12.617 million, 12.742 million, and 12.828 million respectively. In the past two years, Zhengzhou's permanent population has increased by 211,000;
The same is true of Changsha, the capital city of Hunan. As of February 2024, Changsha has a population of 10.72 million, an increase of 1.15% year-on-year. You must know that in 2022, the total permanent population of Changsha will only be 10.4206 million.
There is also Nanchang City in Jiangxi, with a total permanent population of 6.5682 million in 2023, an increase of 30,100 compared with the permanent population in 2022, with Nanchang having the highest increase.
In other words, in the future, the population of the province will continue to gather in the provincial capital.
In the next step, they will settle down, buy a house, get married and have children in their respective provincial capitals...... It can be said that strong provincial capitals will still enjoy population advantages in the future.
On the other hand, the competition between cities will become more and more intense.
To put it bluntly, it will be difficult for a big city to compete with a big city cluster in the future.
If you think about it, with the city-specific policies of the real estate market, it has been clearly stated that the autonomy of urban real estate regulation and control should be fully given, that is to say, the industrial autonomy of the respective cities has been relaxed.
Whether it is Guangzhou, Shanghai, or even Hangzhou, the new front-line, it is obvious that the bubble assets are located in the core area, which can be seen from the purchase restriction policy.
In the future, these cities will take out some suburban areas between cities and develop some new industries through their own policies and investments, so as to achieve the purpose of attracting population.
The Hong Kong-Macao-Guangdong-Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a typical example. Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Huizhou are basically dominated by electronic information technology industries, telecommunications equipment manufacturing, and high-tech industries; Guangzhou, Foshan, and Zhaoqing are mainly engaged in the development of equipment manufacturing, light textiles, and new materials; and Zhuhai, Jiangmen, and Zhongshan are dominated by traditional assembly and machinery manufacturing industries and cultural tourism.
There are also financial services, tourism and modern logistics in Hong Kong, while Macau is dominated by gaming and tourism.
There is also the Hangzhou metropolitan area. In the "Shaoxing Ronghang Development Plan" just announced not long ago, Shaoxing is also engaged in this kind of "gang-building" between cities.
In terms of industry, the former focuses on the Internet of science and technology, the latter focuses on the petrochemical manufacturing industry, and you Shaoxing, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits and soft and hard hands, this is not a proper mutual achievement.
After reading these two examples, you can also find that the industrial division of labor between urban clusters is clear, and the advantages of a full set of industrial chains are played. The purpose is very clear, try to keep the industrial cluster at home or around, then the population will continue to pour in.
Referring to the urbanization process in the United States, the regional level has shifted from agglomeration to the Great Lakes region, which is dominated by traditional industries, to the west and south coasts, where energy, modern manufacturing, and modern service industries are dominant. Among them, Texas, Texas, and Florida, which are dominated by energy, advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, have gradually become population centers. From 1850 to 1970, the population of the three states increased from 400,000 to 37.94 million, and the proportion rose from 1.7% to 18.6%.
Today's Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are not a bit of a shadow of some mega urban agglomerations.
At the urban-rural level, it is obvious that it will concentrate in metropolitan areas in the middle and late stages of urbanization. From 1970 to 2019, the proportion of the population of metropolitan areas with more than 5 million people in the United States increased by 9.5 percentage points.
Therefore, what seems to be a cross-regional population flow is actually a contest between large cities and urban agglomerations.
The large-scale concentration of population in metropolitan areas and large cities also clearly tells us that the spatial pattern of urbanization is being drastically reshaped.
Provincial capitals such as Henan and Hunan will continue to see an increase in population inflows and investment, which means that they will become more urbanized, not to mention some mega-urban agglomerations.
Then, the urbanization rate of the mainland will continue to increase. At present, the urbanization rate of the mainland is 66%, but it should be noted that the urbanization rate of 66% is only an expression of the permanent population, not the actual settlement in the city.
According to the data of the Seventh Census, the urbanization rate of the mainland's registered population is only 45.4%, which means that about 250 million people do not have an urban hukou although they live in cities and towns for a long time.
There is still a long way to go before the urbanization level of 70% is reached.
Fortunately, in the government report on March 5 this year, it was mentioned that the acceleration of the urbanization of the rural transfer population should be placed in a prominent position, the reform of the household registration system should be deepened, and the policy of linking people, land and money should be improved, so that willing migrant workers to settle in cities and towns should be promoted, and the permanent residents who have not settled down will be promoted to enjoy basic urban public services on an equal footing.
Once the reform of the hukou system can be realized, then this part of the population will be able to settle down and settle in the city. Behind this series of actions, it has injected a boost into the property market.
In other words, since you can settle in the city, it is inevitable that you will have the urge to buy a house.
But do you say that housing prices will rise in cities where the population is concentrated? Not necessarily.
From the previous analysis, we learned that the southeastern coastal provinces and individual cities in the north have absorbed almost most of the floating population, and it is not unreasonable for them to be the representatives of the rise in housing prices in previous years.
But with the market downturning, it is unlikely that housing prices in cities with influx of people will continue to rise.
Among the provinces with the largest increase in permanent population, such as Zhejiang and Guangdong, Hangzhou has a permanent population of 12.522 million, an increase of 146,000 compared with 2022, and Guangzhou has a permanent population of 18.827 million, a net increase of 92,900 compared with last year.
According to the previous view, housing prices should have risen due to the continued inflow of population, but this is not the case.
As can be seen from the chart above, second-hand housing prices in several hot cities have shown a downward trend in recent years.
Therefore, the impact of population inflow on cities is still being further refined. Refinement to a district within a city, a plate in the district, etc., requires layers of analysis.