The A-share April market starting tomorrow, have you mastered all this information?

In the past trading week (3.25~3.29), A-shares were mainly adjusted, and bottomed out and rebounded in the second half of the week.

The first quarter of the market also ended. Wind data shows that including the Shanghai Composite Index, the CSI A50, CSI 300 and the Dividend Index, which are more representative of the core assets of A-shares, recorded gains during the year, while other indices are still climbing.

In terms of individual stocks, there are more than 5,300 stocks in the whole market, of which only 1,041 stocks closed up in the first quarter, and more than 4,300 stocks have fallen cumulatively.

However, the good news is that since this wave of rebound (since February 6), more than 5,160 stocks have risen, indicating that although the rebound has a certain structure, it is always a "general reversal".

This also reminds us that as long as the rebound trend is not completely reversed, the follow-up market is still worth looking forward to and participating in.

However, at the beginning of the second quarter, I believe that there are some issues that everyone is generally concerned about, such as:

Can the two main lines (AI and low-altitude economy) in the first quarter still rise? Will there be aesthetic fatigue?

Will the market style change, more aggressive or more stable?

The "national team" funds of the city are frequently trusted, will they continue to be sold in the future?

……

Based on this, this article will share with you some information gaps that may be overlooked, so that you can refer to it when formulating investment strategies.

1. Preview of next week's events

The most important thing is that due to the Qingming Festival holiday, there will only be 3 trading days (Monday to Wednesday) next week, and there will be no northbound funds on Monday.

Originally, the "withdrawal day" on Thursday was brought forward to Tuesday, which will curb the desire of funds to attack, so that more people choose to wait and see the news of the holiday fermentation.

Therefore, next week's market may focus on "connecting the past and opening up the future", and it is not easy to rise as a whole, so it is recommended to pay attention to the local money-making effect, but be cautious in the intraday chasing higher.

In terms of incidents, here are some of the more important ones.

First of all, the date has not yet been finalized, but it is worth paying attention to the release of the Huawei P70 phone.

Previously, in late March, Huawei's mobile phone supply chain company confirmed that it had begun to supply Huawei P70 series of high-end flagship mobile phones in batches. Although the specific release time has not yet been disclosed, the industry generally predicts that the series of mobile phones is expected to meet consumers in April this year.

(There is a speculation that it was released in early April, so you can keep an eye on these days)

April 1

The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 135th Canton Fair

At 3 p.m., Wang Shouwen, international trade negotiator and vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, and relevant responsible persons of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People's Bank of China, and Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, will be invited to introduce the relevant situation of the 135th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) and answer questions from reporters.

April 2 and 3

The State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on the theme of "Promoting High-quality Development".

At 10 a.m. on these two days, the Information Office of the State Council of China will hold a series of press conferences on the theme of "Promoting High-quality Development", inviting Xu Kunlin, Deputy Secretary of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee and Governor of Jiangsu Province, and Zhang Gong, Deputy Secretary of the Tianjin Municipal Party Committee and Mayor of Tianjin, to introduce the relevant work and answer questions from reporters.

There will also be two industry events on April 2, corresponding to two more popular sectors of A-shares.

First, the 2024 Chinese Humanoid Robot Ecological Conference, held in Shanghai;

The second is the Data Asset Entry and Practice Forum, which was held in Jiangsu.

In terms of market events, there are two main things to focus on:

22.514 billion yuan of market value restricted shares lifted

Wind data statistics show that next week, a total of 28 companies' restricted shares will be lifted one after another, with a total of 1.334 billion shares. According to the closing price on March 29, the total market value of the lifting of the ban was 22.514 billion yuan. The top three market capitalizations of the lifting of the ban are Xiangyu Medical (4.802 billion yuan), Luxi Chemical (4.175 billion yuan), and Xinqi Micro (3.364 billion yuan). From the perspective of the number of individual stocks, the top three shares are: Luxi Chemical (439 million shares), Meijin Energy (297 million shares), and Ningbo COSCO (118 million shares).

The central bank's open market will have 850 billion yuan of reverse repo due

Wind data statistics show that next week (April 1 to April 7) the central bank open market will have 850 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due, of which 50 billion yuan, 150 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan due from Monday to Wednesday respectively, because Thursday to Saturday is the Qingming Festival holiday, all the funds due during the period will be postponed to Sunday (April 7), that is, 400 billion yuan due on Sunday.

In addition, 80 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits are due on Wednesday (April 3).

Second, the recent news inventory

Continuing the heat of discussion on Friday, the news of Xiaomi cars is still swiping the screen over the weekend.

But after all, the biggest news catalyst (press conference) has landed recently, and the short-term market is more of a game of capital and emotion.

Ping An Securities Research Report pointed out that 2024 is the first year of mass production of Xiaomi automobiles, and it is expected that the sales volume of Xiaomi automobiles in 2024 will be 5-100,000 units. Xiaomi will be one of the most active new energy players in the next few years, and it is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities around Xiaomi's automotive industry chain.

The research report also suggests some risks:

1) The ramp-up of new vehicle sales is restricted by many factors such as production capacity and supply chain, resulting in slow ramp-up of new car deliveries and loss of orders;

2) The market competition is fierce, and the order situation of new cars after listing may not meet expectations, which will have a negative impact on the performance of relevant industrial chain companies;

3) In the face of new energy competition, fuel vehicle companies may continue to take price reduction measures to grab some new energy vehicle customers;

4) The domestic macroeconomic recovery may be less than expected, and the policy implementation may be less than expected, resulting in insufficient release of automobile consumption potential.

In addition to Xiaomi cars, Huawei cars also ushered in new news.

On March 30, Yu Chengdong issued a document saying that Zhijie S7 has started large-scale delivery, and a large number of new Zhijie S7 have left the production line and are on their way to delivery to users.

Founder Securities Research Report believes that the M9 will start large-scale delivery on February 26, and the sales volume of the Wenjie brand is expected to contribute to stable sales after continuing to climb upward from March to June. The S7, the first model of the Zhijie brand, was released in November 2023, and the production and sales of the brand are expected to increase in the future.

In addition, the more discussed news includes:

[Inflation data in line with expectations, Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated in a speech at the San Francisco Fed on Friday that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates.

Powell said the latest core PCE inflation data, released earlier Friday, was "largely in line with our expectations." But Powell reiterated that it would be inappropriate to cut interest rates until officials are confident that inflation is moving toward their 2% target.

Powell said the Fed expects inflation to continue to fall on a "bumpy path" and that the Fed can and will be cautious about its interest rate cut decision. He said that the US economy is performing strongly, there is no need to rush to cut interest rates at this time, the Fed wants to cut rates only after it is more confident, and further data in the future will show whether the recent inflation is only a temporary rebound. If inflation does not go down, the Fed can maintain interest rates for longer.

Market participants believe that Powell's comments imply that the Fed still insists on the goal of reducing inflation to 2% by the end of the year, while also not changing expectations about interest rate cuts this year.

Michael Pearce, deputy chief economist of Oxford Economics, said in an email to the reporter of the "Daily Economic News" that "the easing of labor market conditions, stable inflation expectations, and the possibility of rent deflation all indicate that the inflation trend may decline slightly this year." That should be enough to give the Fed the confidence to start cutting rates later this year. He expects the Fed's first rate cut to be delayed from May to June.

Because the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been "postponed again and again" before, this time

Powell's "postponement" remarks are actually still within market expectations. Therefore, from the perspective of market interpretation, the majority view is that the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have strengthened slightly, even slightly, which is good for emerging market equities, including China.

[State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has identified the first batch of enterprises to set sail, focusing on emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum information]

On March 29, it was reported that in accordance with the "four new" standards, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council recently selected and determined the first batch of enterprises to set sail to accelerate the layout of new fields and new tracks, and cultivate and develop new quality productivity. Most of these companies were established within 3 years, focusing on emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, and biomedicine. This is another important measure taken by state-owned central enterprises to accelerate the development of new quality productivity.

Since last year, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council has started the implementation of the Qihang Enterprise Cultivation Project around the cultivation of innovative state-owned enterprises, focusing on major national strategic areas, strategic emerging industries and future industries, focusing on the selection of a number of potential and foundation start-up enterprises, fully authorized in management, fully agglomerated in elements, and fully guaranteed in incentives, so as to accelerate the shaping of new kinetic energy and new advantages, and build "unicorn" enterprises and science and technology leaders.

[Syngenta terminates 65 billion yuan IPO application]

According to the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, due to the withdrawal of the application for issuance and listing by Syngenta Group Co., Ltd. and its sponsor, in accordance with the relevant provisions of Article 63 of the Rules for the Review of Stock Issuance and Listing of Shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Exchange terminated its issuance and listing review.

Syngenta said in a statement that the company has voluntarily withdrawn its application for listing on the Main Board based on comprehensive consideration of its own development strategy and the global industry environment. Syngenta Group said that it will continue to consolidate and enhance its leading position in the global agricultural technology field by adopting a diversified combination of methods, and will restart the listing process at an appropriate time in the future.

[Gold prices are still rising]

This week, the international gold price rose four times in a row, hitting a record high, and the London gold spot price and the COMEX gold futures price both broke through the $2,200 per ounce mark. (Note: The market is closed on Fridays due to holidays)

According to CCTV Finance, prices in the domestic retail market are also "rising". The listed price of jewelry gold in many brand gold stores has reached the level of approaching 700 yuan/gram. The gold repurchase business is booming.

For the performance of gold prices in the future, industry insiders said that although there is a certain risk of a correction in the short term, in the long run, the probability of gold prices continuing to fluctuate and rise is relatively large.

3. This week's market review

At the beginning of the article, we mainly talked about the situation in the first quarter, and here we mainly look at the performance of the market this week.

Index Performance: Core Assets, High Dividend Provisional

Leading the gainers and leading the decliners: Xiaomi Auto led the rise, and AI ebbed as a whole

It can be seen that the strongest main theme in the entire first quarter did not perform very well in the last week.

Does this indicate a change in the pace of the follow-up?

Shenwan Hongyuan's strategy team pointed out that the overall money-making effect of the market has rebounded to a high level in late March, and it has fallen back from a high level at this stage. The downward momentum effect has also begun to spread, and quantitative indicators point to the market entering a correction band. The short-term plate rotation heat, against the short-term direction of the market, there is not much room for market interpretation.

It believes that the increase in the dividend ratio in April may focus on verification, strengthen the trend of high dividends, enhance the aggressiveness of high dividends, and continue to recommend electricity, operators, railways and highways, clothing and home textiles in the steady state of high dividends, and home appliances, coal, nonferrous metals, and oil in dynamic high dividends. In the imperfect high dividend, pay attention to the bank and insurance stocks that can increase the dividend ratio. There are still a lot of undervalued high-dividend assets in consumer goods.

Of course, not everyone is unconditionally bullish on high dividends.

For example, Huajin Securities Research Report believes that the spring market has entered the end of the period, and it is still optimistic about the direction of electronics, communications, electricity new, and cyclical with high valuation and cost performance.

The number of ups and downs, the number of ups and downs, and the market volume

This week's cumulative gainers: Decliners→ 1441:3851

Weekly rise and fall list of individual stocks

Northbound funds: Buy China Merchants Bank and Wuliangye this week

Wind data shows that northbound funds bought a net of 5.381 billion yuan this week (only four trading days this week), and in March, northbound funds bought a total of 21.985 billion yuan.

Judging from the weekly performance (March 25 to March 28), China Merchants Bank's net purchase amount was 909 million yuan, and another Industrial Bank, which is also in the banking sector, was increased by 361 million yuan.

Wuliangye's net purchase also exceeded 900 million yuan, and Kweichow Moutai, which also belongs to the food and beverage field, added 542 million yuan. In addition, Changan Automobile, iFLYTEK, Sany Heavy Industry and Zhongji Innolight all had net purchases of more than 500 million yuan.

On the selling side, Mindray Medical's net selling amount was 606 million yuan, and the reduction of Cialis and Goertek shares exceeded 400 million yuan.

In addition, throughout the first quarter, the stocks bought the most by northbound funds were CATL and Kweichow Moutai, and the top 10 net purchases are shown in the table below.

On the selling side, WuXi AppTec topped the list with a net selling volume of nearly 8 billion yuan in the first quarter, nearly 5 billion yuan higher than the second place Oriental Fortune.

Investments are risky, and independent judgment is important

This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading, and you enter the market at your own risk.

Every reporter Zhao Yun and every editor Peng Shuiping