Do you remember the reason for the index dive yesterday? One of the important factors in the correction in the A-share market yesterday was that Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that the Chinese version of quantitative easing (QE) policy rumored in the market is unlikely to appear. However, the A-share market has shown strong resilience today, with the Shanghai Composite Index not only making up for yesterday's decline, but also showing a positive upward trend. Considering that the Qingming Festival holiday is approaching, the market's fear of unknown factors usually leads to increased volatility, but the current main funds seem to be optimistic about the market rumors. In the face of the upcoming April market, the central bank's monetary control measures may become the key to market strength, in case the rumors that the central bank will buy bonds to increase market liquidity come true, A-shares will be supported by improved liquidity, and next week may usher in a stronger rise The market is really going to take off!
Today, many abnormal market phenomena in the intraday are also helping the main force of the big gamble. The first is of course the hottest gold price, today's intraday gold price performance is particularly eye-catching, yesterday the market was still discussing 520 yuan may constitute resistance to peak and fall, but today's gold price jumped directly to 530 yuan, such a single-day increase in the gold market can be called a big rise. In fact, fluctuations in gold prices tend to be closely linked to the tightening of global monetary policy. Considering that the US is expected to cut interest rates this year, the market's expectation of increased liquidity in the US dollar is growing, which has also become a key factor driving the price of gold. However, the absence of the minutes of the Fed meeting yesterday and the fact that the European and US stock markets were closed for the holidays while the price of gold rose sharply today, which naturally turned the focus to whether the domestic central bank will introduce further monetary easing.
The second phenomenon is the general rise of the top stocks in China, which is widely interpreted by the market as the impact of the concept of special valuation. However, when I delve into the details of the market, I can see that the oil industry and the non-ferrous metals industry are the sectors with the most prominent gains today. Both oil and base metals fall under the category of commodities, and their price movements are heavily influenced by the tightening of monetary policy, often fluctuating with loose or tighter monetary conditions. Judging from today's performance, not only the price of gold has risen, but commodities such as oil and non-ferrous metals have also shown positive momentum, which seems to suggest that funds are betting that monetary conditions may tend to be accommodative. If this expectation is realized, then the main funds that are currently deployed here in advance will likely reap greater gains, thereby driving the relevant sectors and indices to further strengthen. In other words, in the coming April market, the commodity market may become an important force leading the strength of A-shares.
In terms of the dynamics of hot topics, we discussed the rebalancing and stock swap operations carried out by institutional investors at the end of the month in order to complete the disclosure of quarterly reports. Today, the performance of liquor, new energy and pharmaceutical sectors is significantly weaker than the broader market index, and the recent hot artificial intelligence sector has not seen significant adjustment, which to a certain extent indicates that the rebalancing layout of institutions may have been basically completed. If institutional investors lose confidence in their original holdings of heavy positions or judge that the market environment has changed, they may choose a new investment path in April. Therefore, investors should not be surprised to see capital outflows in liquor, new energy, medicine and other sectors next week, which is part of the normal operation of the market. At the same time, the area of capital inflow next week will be the most optimistic track for institutional investors at present. These tracks cover multiple directions such as artificial intelligence, flying cars, Xiaomi cars, and commodities. Whichever sector can show strong upward momentum first, then it will have a greater probability of outperforming the index in the subsequent market.
Finally, as a reminder, although the current index continues to rise, the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index have not yet fully made up for yesterday's losses. In addition, today's market volume has shrunk to the 860 billion level, indicating that the current rise is not a market-wide general upward pattern. April must have a good start, if you choose the wrong direction, it is likely to only earn the index and not make money, this must be taken seriously!
----------
Tips:
1. The above content is only a personal investment diary and does not have a guidance function.
2. It is not easy to create, if you feel that you like it, you are welcome to like, comment + follow, which is the greatest support for the author.